572
FXUS64 KCRP 201117
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
617 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Key Messages:

- Low to moderate (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  across the region today.

- HIGH Rip Current Risk in effect through this evening.

A weak cold front will slowly move through the region today, with
the arrival time for Cotulla expected to be around 5 AM and
nearing the coast around mid to late afternoon. The front will
then linger around the area into Monday. With this front there
will be a low to moderate (20-50%) chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms today with chances ending in the west by the
afternoon. The best dynamics look to stay just north of our area,
but should any thunderstorm be able to take root, particularly
closer to the Victoria area, it could produce brief heavy rain.
Most locations will see no more than a quarter inch of rain,
though the Victoria Crossroads have around a 50-60% chance of
seeing between 0.25-0.5 inch of rain. Additional low to moderate
(20-50%) chances of rain will exist across portions of the Coastal
Plains and Coastal Bend Monday.

Drier air filtering in behind the front means that Brush Country
will see the sun return this afternoon and so will portions of the
Coastal Plains. Closer to the coast, however, enough moisture will
likely be in place for clouds to persist the majority of the day,
though a few peaks of sun could be found late. In addition to the
chance for precipitation today into Monday, winds will finally be
much more calm through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Key Messages:

- Daily low to medium rain chances through at least mid-week

Overall the inherited daytime forecast remains on track with daily
rain and thunderstorm chances all week owing to the combination of
ample moisture and several passing mid-level disturbances. Highest
convective chances (30-60%) are forecast Tuesday through Wednesday
period as PWATs rise to well above normal levels and near 1.7-1.9"
(close to the 99th percentile). By late week, weak ridging will
begin to build aloft limiting the rain chances to around 20% or
less. In terms of rainfall accumulations, these will generally
remain less than an inch through the entire Extended period, but
heavier downpours associated to developing storms could lead to
isolated higher amounts. Despite the increased cloud coverage and
rainfall potential, temperatures will remain above normal all week
with highs generally in the low 80s to mid 90s, and overnight lows
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The weak front is currently just east of Cotulla and will slowly
progress east through the day. This will bring scattered showers
and storms to the area, though these will largely end by 15Z
across LRD and COT. As the precip chances arrive farther east at
VCT and CRP this afternoon, MVFR or IFR conditions will be
possible in the heavier showers. VFR conditions are expected once
the precip clears out across the western TAF sites, but while VFR
conditions may occur late this afternoon into this evening for a
time at eastern sites, low CIGs set back in tonight and will lead
to MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Onshore flow weakens to a moderate breeze (BF 4) today and to a
light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) by tonight. On Monday, onshore winds
will remain at a light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3), but will increase
to a Moderate breeze (BF 4) by Tuesday afternoon. A generally
Moderate breeze will then persist through the rest of the week and
into the weekend. Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) are expected
daily through Wednesday before diminishing late week into the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

With a frontal passage today, surface moisture gets pushed to the
southeast with a drier airmass moving in from the west throughout
the day. Minimum RH`s drop to as low as 15-30% across the Rio
Grande Plains by this afternoon. 20 foot winds will be under 20
mph, so this will limit the fire risk to slightly elevated
conditions for the region. This front will bring low to medium
(20-50%) rain and thunderstorm chances to the forecast today into
Monday. Afterwards, plentiful moisture with daily rain and
thunderstorm chances will maintain RH values above critical
thresholds the rest of the week. No elevated or critical fire
weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  70  84  70 /  40  20  30   0
Victoria          86  66  86  68 /  50  30  30  10
Laredo            88  64  94  72 /  50  10  20  10
Alice             86  66  89  69 /  40  20  30   0
Rockport          84  71  83  72 /  40  30  40  10
Cotulla           88  64  95  71 /  40   0  10  10
Kingsville        85  69  85  70 /  40  20  30   0
Navy Corpus       81  71  80  72 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLM/93
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...CLM/93