Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
218 FXUS64 KCRP 102332 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 632 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Weak mid-level Gulf disturbance will bring a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Monday, mainly over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. - Daily low rain chances (10-30%) following Monday for morning showers over the waters and the afternoon seabreeze into the inland Coastal Plains. - Hot conditions continue with minor to moderate heat risk through the middle of the week worsening to moderate to major late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 An inverted trough in the mid-levels combined with convergence along the seabreeze has kicked off showers and thunderstorms along the Texas coast. Main impacts will be a brief downpour with frequent lightning. They will continue to move inland through the afternoon before diminishing in coverage and intensity by this evening. For this reason, 20-40% PoPs from the previous forecast was left in for the remainder of the day. Greatest chances remain across the Victoria Crossroads (30-40%), where PWATS are closer to the 1.80"-2.00" range according to the latest RAP mesoanalysis. This convective shower activity will continue through mid-week. Locations lucky enough to see a shower will see drops in temperature, but should be short lived with the sun warming up the boundary layer and heat indices returning back into the 105-110F range. Long-range data continues to show the Heat Risk returning into the Moderate/Major by late week thanks to slightly drier air moving into the Brush Country, thanks to afternoon RH values dropping to near 30%. This combined with above-normal Energy Release Component Values will lead to elevated fire conditions, but limited by weaker winds in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 A few spotty showers and thunderstorms remain over the Brush Country, moving westward over the next couple hours before completely dissipating. VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast with the exception of early morning MVFR vsby/cig over VCT/ALI from 09-14Z. Winds will remain light with gusts around 20 knots in the wake of the seabreeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 A light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southeasterly flow is expected during the overnight hours, increasing to a gentle to moderate (BF 3- 4) breeze during the afternoon and evening hours each day through Wednesday. Generally gentle to moderate flow will then persist beginning Wednesday night. Low rain chances (20-40%) will persist through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 95 76 96 / 10 10 10 20 Victoria 74 96 74 97 / 10 30 10 40 Laredo 77 103 78 103 / 20 10 10 10 Alice 74 99 74 99 / 10 20 10 20 Rockport 80 93 79 93 / 10 20 10 20 Cotulla 76 101 77 101 / 20 10 10 10 Kingsville 74 96 74 96 / 10 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 80 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...EMF/94