095
FXUS64 KCRP 142327
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
627 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Major risk of heat related impacts expected across the inland
Coastal Plains to the Brush Country and Rio grande Plains on
Thursday. Moderate across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.

- Heat Advisory in effect for portions of South Texas Thursday.

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions over the Rio Grande Plains
and Brush Country on Thursday.

The center of a mid level high pressure system currently SSW of Deep
S TX, will slowly move northeast overnight and is progged to be east
of S TX by Thursday. This will lead to a southwest flow aloft which
will usher high clouds across the region. This cirrus will be rather
thin and will still allow much sun to get through, but could help
max temperatures to be 2-4 degrees cooler than today`s values.
Regardless, it will still be unseasonably hot.

There is a Major Risk of heat related impacts across the Rio Grande
Plains, Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains Thursday afternoon.
A Moderate Risk is expected across the remainder of S TX.

Temperatures approaching 110 Degrees across the Rio Grande Plains to
around 100 across the inland Coastal Plains can be expected
Thursday. The combination of the high temperatures and increasing
low level moisture/higher RH values will lead to heat indices 105-
114 across the western 2/3rds of S TX. As a result, a Heat Advisory
is in effect once again Thursday.

Tonight`s and Thursday night`s lows will be above normal in the 70s.

In addition to the heat, there will be Elevated Fire Weather
conditions across the Brush Country Thursday afternoon. Winds are
expected to below critical conditions, but the Energy Release
Component (ERC) percentiles are in the 70-95th range and minimum
relative humidity is forecast to be 20-30%. This will lead to at
least elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through early next
week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country daily.

A heat wave will persist across South Texas through at least early
next week, driven by a dominant mid- to upper-level ridge. While
temperatures may fluctuate slightly day to day, they will remain
well above normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s and even low
100s out west. Humidity levels will also be on the rise, as
persistent south-southeasterly surface flow continues to transport
Gulf moisture inland. This influx of moisture will push dewpoints
into the 70s and elevate PWATs to around 1.5-2.0 inches by this
weekend and into early next week.

The result will be oppressive conditions across the CWA. Daily heat
indices will range from 100-115 degF, especially west of the I-37
corridor, with WBGTs expected to reach 85-90 degF indicating a high
threat for heat-related stress/illness. Overnight lows will offer
little relief, only dropping into the 70s, further compounding the
cumulative heat stress over multiple days. Heat Risk guidance
highlights a daily heat risk ranging from major (level 3 of 4) to
extreme (level 4 of 4) over much of the region. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for the short-term and will likely need to be
extended into the long-term if these trends continue. All of this to
say, please take heat safety precautions seriously: stay hydrated,
limit time outdoors, avoid strenuous activity during peak heating
hours, and always check vehicles for children and pets! More
guidance is available at weather.gov/heat.

In addition to the heat, elevated fire weather conditions are
expected across the Brush Country, particularly when minimum
relative humidity drops to 20-30% and fuels remain dry. A developing
surface low over the South Central Plains will enhance the pressure
gradient, resulting in sustained south-southeast winds around 15-20
mph with gusts between 25-30 mph, further exacerbating the fire

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Expect VFR conditions at COT/LRD overnight with MVFR CIGs for
ALI/CRP/VCT and have included wind shear in response to a
strengthening low level jet tonight, affecting all terminals.
Then, a temporary wind shift tomorrow afternoon for LRD and
perhaps COT as a dryline approaches the region but then retreats.
Otherwise, southerly to southeast winds with gusts up to around
25-30 knots is expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A strong southerly breeze (BF 6) is expected tonight before
decreasing back to fresh to strong on Thursday. Small Craft
Advisory is in effect tonight through 7 PM Thursday evening. A
moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly breeze is expected to
continue Friday through early next week with seas of 4-6 feet. No
precipitation is anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A developing surface low over the South-Central Plains will enhance
south-southeasterly surface winds across the region, with sustained
speeds around 15 mph and gusts exceeding 20-25 mph. These winds
combined with minimum relative humidity levels of 15-30% and Energy
Release Component values in the 60th-95th percentile, will
contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush
Country through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  94  77  91 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          73  93  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            78 106  77 106 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             75 103  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          78  88  78  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           76 106  76 107 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        75 101  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       78  87  79  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>244.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ229>231-
     239>244.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...BF/80