809
WTPA45 PHFO 052034
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Visible satellite imagery indicates that Karina`s low-level
circulation has become totally decoupled from the mid- to
upper-levels. Deep convection is now limited to a shield to the
north of the cyclone. A blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current
Intensity numbers from JTWC plus decreasing objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS supported lowering the intensity estimate to 60 kt at 18Z.
Since then, further degradation of the satellite appearance of
Karina over the past few hours justify lowering the intensity
estimate to 55 kt for this advisory.

Largely because Karina has become shallow sooner than expected, the
tropical storm has also moved south of the previous forecast track.
This has necessitated another southward shift to the NHC forecast,
which is near the southern extreme of the reliable guidance
envelope. A further southward adjustment may be necessary in future
advisories. Karina is now forecast to move generally
west-northwestward to westward for the next couple of days, steered
primarily by low-level flow associated with a subtropical high
centered well north of the tropical storm. This motion will likely
continue until Karina dissipates in a few days.

Further weakening from southwesterly shear and dry air is likely.
The official forecast calls for Karina to weaken slightly faster
than previously shown, but is generally similar and lies near the
middle of the models, which are all in good agreement. Karina is
forecast to become post-tropical in 2 days, and based on current
trends, it could occur sooner than that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 21.6N 143.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 22.0N 144.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 22.5N 145.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 22.8N 146.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 23.0N 148.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0600Z 23.4N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky