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WTPA44 PHFO 101434
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  58
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026


Infrared satellite imagery over the last several hours suggests
that the convection over Lowell`s northeastern quadrant is
degrading. Lowell`s low-level center is also becoming increasingly
displaced from this convection. The last subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC both rated Lowell at 2.0/2.0
or 30 kt, however scatterometer data from 0700 UTC depicted max
winds closer to 55 kt. With Lowell`s convection decreasing, the
initial intensity was lowered slightly to 50 kt.

The initial motion was estimated at 270/13 kt. Lowell`s westward
motion continues to be steered by a mid-level high centered to its
north-northeast. Heading into the weekend, Lowell is forecast to
turn northwestward as it interacts with a cutoff low over the
north-central Pacific. After which, the storm will become wedged
between two mid-level highs, greatly inhibiting its forward motion.
The track models exhibit a wide spread in Lowell`s motion beyond 36
h, with global models suggesting that the storm will more or less
remain stationary over the open central Pacific when it is caught
between the aforementioned mid-level highs. Because of this, little
was changed in the official track forecast, save for minor leftward
adjustments within the first 36 h given Lowell`s due westward
initial motion.

Lowell is expected to remain in a hostile environment characterized
by moderate vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal
SSTs. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and the
ECMWF suggest that Lowell could become post-tropical within the next
24 h. The main complication, however, is that Lowell interacting
with the aforementioned cutoff low could work to re-invigorate
convection heading into the weekend. Because of this, forecasting
Lowell`s intensity and post-tropical transition is difficult, as the
storm`s environment favors steady weakening, but another flare-up of
convection from this cutoff low could keep the intensity steady
through the weekend. Therefore, Lowell`s intensity forecast was kept
relatively steady through the first 48 h, followed by weakening late
this weekend into early next week. Lowell is ultimately anticipated
to dissipate after interacting with a frontal system early next
week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 29.1N 167.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 29.1N 169.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 29.2N 171.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 30.0N 172.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 31.7N 172.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 33.0N 173.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 33.1N 174.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  14/1200Z 32.4N 175.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z 31.0N 175.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen