472
WTPA44 PHFO 092037
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025

Satellite images show convection associated with Kiko remains
displaced to the north of the low-level center within northerly
outer bands. Strong southwesterly wind shear and drier air continues
to limit the overall convection, especially near the center of the
system through this morning. Lastest subjective estimates from SAB
and PHFO, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased
ranging from 25 to 43 kt.  Using these estimates and the latest
satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.

Kiko continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated motion of
290/13 kt. The system has become a more shallow vortex and is
forecast to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the
forecast period, steered by the subtropical ridge. The official
forecast track was nudged slightly left, and lies near the latest
consensus aids.

The cyclone remains is forecast to remain within a high shear
environment over the next 18 h or so, afterwards shear subsides for
about a day or so. When the shear subsides Kiko will remain over
warm ocean temperatures and global model simulated infrared imagery
show that the system could regain convection. However, it remains to
be seen if the convection will be organized enough to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. By 48-60h, moderate to strong shear
returns, and the system should continue to weaken, lose all
convection, and eventually open into a trough dissipating by the
end of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast follows these
weakening trends, and lies near the consensus intensity aids. It is
noted that if Kiko does not produce organized convection soon as
models show, the system may become post-tropical earlier than
officially forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands today
and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of
direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though
interests should still monitor Kiko`s progress and the latest
forecasts.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west
across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak
today through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts
issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 22.9N 154.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 23.4N 156.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 23.9N 159.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 24.7N 161.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 25.6N 163.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 26.3N 165.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 26.9N 167.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly