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WTPA44 PHFO 022033
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

Lowell has continued to rapidly intensify over the Central Pacific
today. The compact hurricane has maintained a very warm, circular
eye with a diameter of 15 n mi for the past several hours. A
symmetric ring of very deep convection surrounds the eye with cold
cloud tops of -70 to -75 deg C. The subjective Dvorak and objective
UW-CIMSS estimates have risen since the prior advisory, with a
T7.0/140 kt classification from JTWC along with recent AiDT and
D-PRINT estimates around 140 kt. Based on these developments, Lowell
has become a Category 5 hurricane with an initial intensity of 140
kt. A NOAA aircraft research mission is scheduled to collect data in
Lowell later today.

Since the hurricane is moving over a region of very high oceanic
heat content in a low shear environment, further near-term
intensification remains possible. An eyewall replacement cycle
(ERC) would be expected to commence in the near future, but the
latest available passive microwave images did not suggest an ERC is
underway. These favorable environmental and oceanic conditions are
expected to persist for the next several days, meaning that Lowell
is likely to remain a major hurricane while internal dynamic
processes like ERCs modulate its intensity fluctuations. The NHC
intensity forecast remains on the high side of the latest guidance
and follows the multi-model consensus aids, trending closer to IVCN
later in the period. There is high confidence that Lowell will
remain a major hurricane through the weekend.

Lowell is moving just south of due west (265/9 kt). This motion is
expected to continue with a gradually slower forward speed during
the next few days as Lowell moves to the south of a mid-level ridge
over the Central Pacific. A cutoff mid- to upper-level low is
forecast to drop southwestward from the North Pacific and weaken the
steering ridge this weekend. Then, a sharp turn toward the north or
north-northeast is forecast at days 4-5 while Lowell interacts with
this upper-level feature. There is large spread in the various
models and ensemble solutions regarding how sharp of a turn occurs,
but once again the overall trend has been an eastward shift in the
long-range track envelope. Thus, the updated NHC track forecast
was adjusted to the right of the previous prediction at 96-120 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.3N 154.3W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.4N 155.6W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 13.5N 157.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 13.6N 158.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 13.7N 160.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 13.8N 161.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 14.1N 162.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 15.1N 163.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 17.4N 163.2W  110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart