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WTPA44 PHFO 031450
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

Lowell is still a powerful hurricane with a warm eye that is
apparent in infrared and proxy-visible satellite images. Overnight
WSF-M passive microwave data showed some thinning of the convection
in the eastern portion of the eyewall, possibly the result of some
intrusion of drier mid-level air. However, recent conventional
satellite imagery shows colder cloud tops and a slightly thicker
ring of convection surrounding the center. Based on a blend of the
Dvorak current intensity (CI) estimates from JTWC and HFO, the
initial intensity is set at 120 kt for this advisory. The 34-kt wind
radii were expanded, particularly on the north side of the
hurricane, based on overnight scatterometer data. Another NOAA
aircraft research mission into Lowell is scheduled for later today.

The hurricane will move over warm waters while in a weaker shear
environment during the next few days. These conducive environmental
and oceanic conditions favor Lowell maintaining its major hurricane
intensity, even as internal structural changes like eyewall
replacement cycles commence. Since these types of changes are
extremely difficult to predict, the NHC intensity forecast follows a
similar approach as the previous prediction and shows no net change
through the end of the week (though some small fluctuations are
expected). By the weekend, southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase over Lowell, which should induce some weakening
along with a more asymmetric wind structure.

Lowell is being steered westward (270/9 kt) by a mid-level ridge to
its north over the Central Pacific. A continued westward motion is
expected during the next couple of days. Then, the forecast becomes
more challenging as a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern
Pacific digs southward and erodes the steering ridge. This will
cause Lowell to turn sharply northward or north-northeastward this
weekend and then accelerate generally toward the north early next
week, passing near or west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands
by day 5. The updated NHC track forecast lies between the corrected
(HCCA) and simple (TVCN) track consensus aids, showing a sharper
turn at days 3-4 but similar to the previous NHC prediction at day
5. Remember that the average track errors at days 4-5 are around 150
n mi and 200 n mi, respectively. There is lower confidence in the
long-range track forecast details, and future adjustments may be
required. Residents in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest NHC
forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it
moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and
Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact
track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 13.5N 157.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 13.5N 158.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 13.6N 159.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 13.7N 161.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 13.9N 162.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 14.3N 162.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 15.1N 163.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 17.6N 162.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 22.7N 162.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart