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WTPA44 PHFO 052043
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Lowell`s satellite presentation has degraded further this morning
with what appears to be a moat developing around the eyewall in
visible and satellite imagery. This could suggest that Lowell is
beginning to go through an eyewall replacement, but the most recent
microwave data did not show signs of a secondary eyewall. It`s also
possible that the hurricane has ingested dry air that is eroding
some of the convection outside of the inner core. Either way,
subjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers and objective estimates
now support an initial intensity of 125 kt.

Lowell appears to have begun its expected turn, with the initial
motion now west-northwestward (285/6 kt). A deep-layer low located
about 500 n mi north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast
to dip southwestward over the next couple of days, which will cause
Lowell to make a sharp northward to north-northeastward turn,
accompanied by an increase in forward speed, by Sunday and Monday.
The track guidance has not changed much since the last cycle and
remains in good agreement that Lowell`s center will move 100-200 n
mi to the west of Kauai County in 60-72 hours. Since the models
didn`t change much, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to
the previous forecast. After passing the main Hawaiian Islands after
day 3, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and slow
down as weak ridging again builds in north of the cyclone.

The official intensity forecast shows a steady intensity for the
next 12 hours or so, leaving the door open for possible
fluctuations in intensity, especially if an eyewall replacement
does occur. Overall, however, models suggest that gradual weakening
will continue, especially once deep-layer shear increases in 36-48
hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast has again been lowered
slightly from the previous prediction to follow model trends, but
it still shows Lowell being near or at major hurricane strength when
it makes its closest approach to the western main Hawaiian Islands
and passes across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument. After day 3, the addition of cooler waters and drier air
should cause Lowell to weaken to a tropical storm by day 4.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to move close to the western Hawaiian Islands
late Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of wind and coastal
flooding impacts for Kauai County at that time, and a tropical
storm watch will likely be issued later today. Residents and
tourists should follow advice from local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the
Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next
week. Periods of heavy rain may produce locally significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 13.5N 163.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 13.9N 163.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 14.9N 164.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 16.2N 164.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 18.2N 163.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 21.1N 162.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 23.9N 162.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 26.9N 163.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 27.6N 167.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg