Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
452
FOPA14 PHFO 050248
PWSCP4
HURRICANE LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29)
BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
BARKING SANDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16)
15N 160W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) 1(21)
20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 4(34)
25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
25N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 26(36) 2(38)
NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) 1(28)
21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) 1(32)
BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 72(84) 1(85)
NIHOA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 60(61) 1(62)
NIHOA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 76(78) 5(83)
BUOY 51101 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 7(57)
BUOY 51101 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 4(35)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 33(56) 1(57)
22N 164W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23)
22N 164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11)
NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 2(31)
NECKER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
NECKER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 165W 34 X 26(26) 50(76) 8(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86)
15N 165W 50 X 1( 1) 27(28) 16(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46)
15N 165W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 2(36) X(36)
20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29)
25N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
25N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32)
30N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
30N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
30N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/PIERCE