341
WTPA43 PHFO 110848
TCDCP3

Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 10 2025

The satellite presentation of Henriette had degraded earlier this
evening, perhaps due to what appeared to be an eye wall replacement
cycle, while the cyclone was also passing over a tongue of slightly
cooler sea surface temperatures around 25.5C.  Recent satellite
images however depict the eye becoming better defined and surrounded
by cooling cloud tops.  The most recent subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates were 4.0/65 kt from PHFO and SAB, and 4.5/77 kt
from JTWC.  Meanwhile, the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have
ranged between 65 and 76 kt during the past several hours.  Taking a
blend of these estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 70
kt for this advisory.

Henriette is moving toward the northwest, or 315 degrees, at 15 kt.
This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple
of days as the cyclone is steered between a mid-level low to the
northwest of Hawaii and a building mid-level ridge far to the north
of the cyclone.  A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward
speed is expected beyond 60 hours as the increasingly shallow system
is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the east.  The official
track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is
very close to the previous advisory.

Henriette will remain over sufficiently warm water for some
intensification during the next day or so, however, vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase considerably by about 36 hours.  As a
result, the official forecast calls for some strengthening during
the next 24 hours, followed by slight weakening between 24 and 36
hours, and more rapid weakening thereafter.  Henriette is expected
to weaken into a post-tropical low by 72 hours, with dissipation
expected by 120 hours.  The intensity forecast is mostly unchanged
and is slightly higher than the intensity guidance in the near term,
then close to the middle of the intensity guidance envelope beyond
36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 27.6N 155.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 29.2N 157.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 31.4N 159.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 33.5N 162.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 35.5N 165.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  13/1800Z 37.4N 167.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 39.6N 169.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 42.6N 171.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)