757
WTPA43 PHFO 102032
TCDCP3

Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 10 2025

Henriette has put on quite the show today with a well-defined eye
emerging during the past few hours along with cooling temperatures
in the eyewall.  Dvorak intensity estimates were up to 65 kt by
18Z, and with the further development on satellite since that time,
the initial wind speed is set to 70 kt for this advisory.

It remains to be seen how strong Henriette will get with an
improving environment along its path during the next day or so,
including decreasing shear, increasing SSTs and cooling upper-level
temperatures.  Given that this rapid intensification period was not
well forecast, and a recent closed 37 GHz ring on AMSR2 data, I`m
inclined to go above the guidance in this situation and show near
rapid intensification for about 24 h until the environment becomes
more hostile.  Henriette should lose all deep convection in about 3
days over cold waters and in very high shear.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 15 kt.  A large ridge
over the north-central Pacific should cause a continued fast
northwestward track of Henriette for several days until its slows
down a bit near dissipation.  The only minor change to the previous
forecast is a faster forward speed, probably a function of the
hurricane feeling stronger upper-level southeasterly flow during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 25.7N 152.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 27.3N 154.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 29.4N 156.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 31.5N 159.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 33.6N 162.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 35.5N 164.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 37.3N 167.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  14/1800Z 41.0N 170.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake