501
WTPA42 PHFO 291436
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025


Keli has been holding steady since the previous advisory.  Cold
cloud tops over the storm initially warmed, but recent fresh
convection has been growing just west of the low-level center.  The
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC
remained at T2.0 and the intensity is held at 35 kt for this cycle.
Keli is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward from the center about 30 n mi.

A mid-level ridge to the north of Keli is steering the storm
westward at about 11 kt.  Model guidance, and the NHC official track
forecast, predict the forward motion of the storm slightly
increasing during the next couple of days while maintaining a
westward trajectory.

The intensity forecast reasoning has not changed.  While sea surface
temperatures are sufficiently warm, environmental conditions are
expected to become gradually less conducive. Therefore, Keli is
predicted to hold steady for the next day or so until it begins to
weaken.  The latest official forecast now show Keli dissipating
by 60 h, based on the latest model guidance.  However, Keli is a
small storm and could dissipate sooner than expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 12.5N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 12.8N 150.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 13.2N 153.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 13.4N 156.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 13.4N 159.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci