767
WTPA42 PHFO 300243
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Jul 29 2025

Keli appears to be maintaining its intensity...for now.  The system
continues to produce rather small areas of convection with limited
banding features over the eastern semicircle.  Overall, however,
the tropical cyclone`s cloud pattern is not very well organized.
The advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt in agreement with
subjective Dvorak numbers from SAB and PHFO along with objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS.  The storm remains quite small with only
about a 30 n mi extent of 34-kt winds from the center.

The storm continues to gradually accelerate with an initial motion
estimate now of about 280/16 kt.  Keli is being steered by the flow
on the south side of a mid-level ridge and appears to also be
starting to get caught up in the northeast quadrant of the outer
circulation of larger Hurricane Iona.  The track guidance models
have generally shifted a little northward with an additional
increase in forward speed.  The official forecast has again been
nudged poleward and faster.

Although Keli is hanging on as a tropical storm for the moment, it
is not likely to last for more than a couple of days.  Westerly
vertical shear from the outflow of Iona is likely to cause
weakening, and Keli`s inflow should be soon disrupted by Iona`s
low-level circulation.  The official forecast continues to call for
weakening and dissipation in 48 hours or so.  This is also in good
agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 13.1N 151.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 13.7N 154.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 14.2N 157.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 14.6N 161.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch