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        Water Supply Outlook                                                 May 7, 2025


ABRFC uses the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.

Snowfall across the Upper Arkansas River Basin was below normal during April. The
Sangre De Cristo Mountains in Southern Colorado and the Canadian River Basin in New
Mexico also saw below normal snowfall in April. At the end of April, snowpack
conditions were below normal at most points along the upper reaches of the Arkansas
River, but significantly below normal across Southern Colorado. The snowpack is also
extremely low in the Canadian Basin in New Mexico, where much of the snowpack has
melted.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 79 percent-of-average for the
Arkansas River at Salida and 71 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff
from Grape Creek, the Cucharas River and the Huerfano River is forecast to be 30,
52, and 47 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide
72 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to
be 49 percent-of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 36 and 30 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 20 and 19 percent-of-average, respectively.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-April) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado is below median, overall. Reports range from 64 percent-of-median at
South Colony to 111 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above Salida, as
measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is below normal at 59 percent-of-median. Snowpack
in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is almost gone. In the Purgatoire River
basin, the snowpack is almost all melted, as well.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is below normal. Reports range from
75 percent-of-median at Red River Pass #2 to 99 percent-of-median at Shuree.
Unfortunately, the snowpack in the Canadian River basin is mostly melted and is
too low to measure.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 110 percent-of-median above
Pueblo Reservoir and 92 percent-of-median below the reservoir.  The upper reservoirs
are at 101 percent of last year`s total. The lower reservoirs are at 110 percent of
last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation
outlooks for the nation. The outlook for May through July calls for increased chances
of above normal temperatures in Colorado and New Mexico. The CPC outlook also calls
for increased chances for below normal precipitation across New Mexico and especially
in Colorado.


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