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Water Supply Outlook                                           February 5, 2025


ABRFC uses the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.

Snowfall across much of the Arkansas River Basin has been near normal during
January. The Canadian River Basin saw near to below normal snowfall in January.
At the end of January, snowpack conditions were near normal along the upper reaches
of the Arkansas River, but below normal across Southern Colorado. The snowpack is
significantly below normal in much of the Canadian Basin.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 91 percent-of-average for the
Arkansas River at Salida and 95 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff
from Grape Creek, the Cucharas River and the Huerfano River is forecast to be 72,
92, and 80 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide
100 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to
be 74 percent-of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 52 and 58 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 50 and 53 percent-of-average, respectively.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-January) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado is slightly above median, overall. Reports range from 69 percent-of-
median at South Colony to 147 percent-of-median at Glen Cove. Snowpack above
Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is above normal with 108 percent-of-
median. Snowpack in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is 80 percent-of-median. In
the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack is at 78 percent-of-median.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is above normal. Reports range from
102 percent-of-median at Palo to 123 percent-of-median at Tolby. Unfortunately, the
snowpack in the Canadian River basin is well below normal at 45 percent-of-median.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 114 percent-of-median above
Pueblo Reservoir and 91 percent-of-median below the resorvoir.  The upper reservoirs
are at 101 percent of last year`s total. The lower reservoirs are at 102 percent of
last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation
outlooks for the nation. The outlook for February through April calls for equal chances
of above, below, or near normal temperatures in the Arkansas Basin, while the
Canadian Basin has an increased chance for above normal temperatures. The outlook calls
for increased chances for below normal precipitation across Colorado and New Mexico.


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