660
FXUS61 KCLE 111316
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today and stall over central
Ohio tonight. This front will slightly move north and south
across the area on Wednesday and Thursday before being lifted
well north as a warm front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:15 AM Update:
Only a few changes with the forecast for this mornings update
with the dew points as they are running a bit cooler than
previously forecast. Other than that, no changes with the
forecast.

Previous Discussion...
Main story for the next 36 hours will be a cold front
approaching the region. The timing of the front continues to be
this afternoon, and temperatures will have an opportunity to
reach values in the 60s, similar to Monday, before the front
sweeps through during the afternoon. Overall, believe that the
frontal passage will be dry with just some clouds, as low level
moisture in the atmosphere is very dry. Expecting some breezy
conditions ahead of and with the frontal passage and gusts to 30
mph are possible. The front will stall out somewhere in central
Ohio and the forecast area will remain on the cold side of the
boundary, allowing for low temperatures in the 30s tonight. For
Wednesday, the main question will be how far north will the
front get. There will be a significant temperature gradient
across the forecast area with highs in the upper 40s to lower
50s north of the front, but 60s will return south of the front.
Flow off Lake Erie should keep the front a county width or two
south of the lake. A couple spotty showers could develop in the
northeast CWA with some surface convergence and isentropic lift,
but suspect that those may be best favored further east and
will just maintain some low PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
W`erly flow aloft is expected Wednesday night through Thursday
night. At the surface, a front is expected to primarily waver in
vicinity of Mid-OH as a high pressure center drifts E`ward across
southern QC to the Canadian Maritimes and extends a ridge into the
eastern Great Lakes region, including our CWA. However, the surface
front should begin to move N`ward as a warm front and approach the
southern shore of Lake Erie Thursday night in response to lee
surface cyclogenesis over the central Great Plains, just east of the
Rockies. Stronger and moister isentropic ascent along the upper-
reaches of the aforementioned front may allow isolated rain showers
to impact eastern Lake Erie and NW PA Wednesday night, especially
during the evening. Otherwise fair weather is expected Wednesday
night through Thursday night due to stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the surface ridge and a relatively drier low-level
atmospheric column.

A tight gradient in surface air temperatures, directed toward the
south and associated with the aforementioned synoptic front, is
expected Wednesday night through Thursday. Wednesday night`s lows
are expected to range from mainly the mid to upper 30`s across
roughly the northern-half of our CWA to the upper 30`s to lower 40`s
farther south. On Thursday, intervals of sunshine and synoptic low-
level WAA along the southwestern flank of the surface ridge are
expected to allow late afternoon highs to reach mainly the lower to
mid 60`s in interior portions of northern OH and NW PA. However,
along and near Lake Erie (i.e. within about five to 15 miles of the
lake), cooler highs in the lower 40`s to lower 60`s are expected.
This is where sufficient daytime warming of surface air over land
surrounding ~35F Lake Erie and a relatively weak synoptic MSLP
gradient directed toward the north and then northeast will permit
lake breeze occurrence during the afternoon through early evening.
Based on latest trends in the consensus of forecast model guidance
and expected evolution of the synoptic MSLP gradient, the lake
breeze is expected to exhibit greatest inland extent in NW OH in our
CWA. Continued synoptic low-level WAA and the expected evolution of
the aforementioned synoptic surface front will contribute to a
milder Thursday night. Lows are forecast to reach mainly the lower
to mid 40`s around daybreak Friday.

Primarily fair weather is expected Friday through Friday night as a
ridge aloft shifts from over/near the western Great Lakes to
over/near the Northeast United States and is accompanied by
stabilizing subsidence. The surface portion of the ridge will exit
E`ward and allow the above-mentioned surface front to surge N`ward
across the rest of our CWA. Behind the warm front, a surface trough
overspreads our CWA from the southwest. The warm front will usher-in
a warmer and somewhat moister air mass originating over the Gulf.
Simultaneously, the aforementioned surface low should deepen
considerably as it wobbles NE`ward from the central Great Plains to
the Upper Midwest and remains immediately downstream of its parent
trough axis aloft, which should shift NE`ward from the Southwest
United States to the Upper Midwest. Periods of rain are expected
after midnight Friday night, especially in northern OH, as a low-
level return flow of warm/humid air originating over the Gulf
undergoes isentropic ascent aloft over our area. Note: Gusty and
S`erly surface winds are expected behind the warm front, due in part
to considerable deepening of the surface low. Late afternoon highs
on Friday are expected to reach mainly the mid 60`s to mid 70`s
amidst intervals of sunshine. Continued low-level WAA will
contribute to overnight lows reaching mainly the 50`s around
daybreak Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The very deep and nearly vertically-stacked low should wobble
NE`ward from the Upper Midwest to near James Bay between daybreak
Saturday and nightfall Sunday evening. Simultaneously, the attendant
trough at the surface and aloft should continue to overspread our
region from the southwest and west, and the attendant arcing cold
front should sweep generally ENE`ward through our region Saturday
night through Sunday. Periods of rain, steady to heavy at times, are
expected on Saturday through Sunday due to low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and moist isentropic
ascent ahead of trough axes aloft, including shortwave trough axes.
These lifting mechanisms may release sufficient, albeit weak CAPE,
including elevated CAPE, to trigger isolated thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening. Any surface-based thunderstorms may produce
damaging wind gusts amidst a high shear/low MUCAPE ambient
environment, including low-level winds strengthening rapidly with
height. Our regional non-convective surface winds will remain gusty,
especially on Saturday, when diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer should tap into notably stronger flow aloft during
the late morning through afternoon. Forecast trends will continue to
be monitored for the possibility of severe thunderstorms and need
for non-convective wind alerts.

On Saturday, late afternoon highs should reach the 60`s to lower
70`s in the warm sector. CAA at the surface and aloft, behind the
strong cold front, should allow lows to reach the 40`s to lower 50`s
around daybreak Sunday. On Sunday, strong CAA amidst mostly cloudy
sky should prevent temperatures from rebounding much. Daytime highs
should reach the upper 40`s to mid 50`s.

The longwave trough axis aloft is expected to approach our CWA from
the west Sunday night as attendant surface troughing lingers in our
region. On Monday, the trough at the surface and aloft should exit
E`ward as a ridge at the surface and aloft builds from over/near the
Upper Midwest. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the trough axis
aloft may generate scattered rain and/or snow showers Sunday night.
Overnight lows should reach the lower to mid 30`s around daybreak
Monday. Primarily fair weather is expected on Monday as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the building ridge. However, continued CAA at
the surface and aloft, and sufficient low-level moisture may allow
lake-effect snow showers to stream generally E`ward over/downwind of
Lake Erie and impact the primarily snowbelt Monday morning. By late
Monday afternoon, intervals of sunshine and diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer amidst a lowering subsidence inversion
should allow highs to reach the lower 40`s to 50F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions continue across the region and remain expected
through the next 24-30 hours. A cold front approaches the
region today and a low level jet ahead of the front will allow
for a couple more hours of LLWS before better mixing occurs this
morning and reduces the LLWS potential with increasing surface
gusts to 25 kts. High clouds will move in with the front and
winds will shift with the frontal passage to the west then
northwest before settling on a northeast to east component
tonight. Some low VFR clouds will develop with flow off Lake
Erie tonight and have some 4 kft cloud groups mentioned.

Outlook...VFR expected through Friday. A strong cold front
crosses Saturday with gusty winds possible along with non-VFR
in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front sweeps SE`ward across Lake Erie and is followed by a
ridge building from the northern Great Lakes and vicinity today.
Accordingly, SW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots veer to NW`erly
with the cold front passage. Behind the front, NW`erly winds veer to
N`erly to NE`erly and ease to around 5 to 15 knots. The ridge
affects Lake Erie tonight through Thursday night as the parent high
pressure center moves from the northern Great Lakes toward the
Canadian Maritimes. N`erly to NE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots
tonight are expected to freshen to around 10 to 20 knots on
Wednesday as lake breeze development occurs in the afternoon through
early evening. NE`erly winds ease to around 5 to 15 knots Wednesday
night. On Thursday, NE`erly to N`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are
expected as lake breeze development occurs during the afternoon
through early evening. NE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots veer to
E`erly to SE`erly Thursday night.

SE`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots veer to S`erly and freshen
gradually to around 15 to 25 knots on Friday through Friday night as
a warm front sweeps N`ward across Lake Erie and a deepening low
wobbles NE`ward from the central Great Plains to the Upper Midwest.
On Saturday, S`erly to SW`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots are
expected as the potent low drifts NE`ward across the Upper Midwest
toward the northwestern Great Lakes and the attendant trough
continues to overspread Lake Erie from the southwest. Forecast
trends may eventually require a wind-related Small Craft Advisory
Friday night into Saturday.

Warming temperatures will cause additional melting of remaining ice
on Lake Erie. Periods of elevated winds will likely cause chunks of
ice to break offshore and float around. Ice movement will be
hazardous and will greatly dictate wave potential. Based on our
latest wind forecast, waves are expected to trend mainly 3 feet or
less in nearshore U.S. waters and be no larger than 3 to 7 feet in
open U.S. waters through this Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...23/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Jaszka