746
FXUS61 KCLE 021248
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
848 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were needed with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A roller coaster of temperatures is expected throughout the next
week as an active pattern persists.

2) A robust system is expected to impact the area mid-week, bringing
widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms across the
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Well below average temperatures will stick around through tonight as
high pressure builds over the area. Highs today are expected to only
climb into the upper 40s to low 50s before temperatures fall into
the upper 20s to low 30s tonight. This will be the coldest night in
a while and will pose significant risk to vulnerable vegetation.
Will continue to monitor the trend in cloud coverage, but general
thinking at this point is that the entire area will need either a
frost or freeze headline.

On Sunday, a brief reprieve from the cold will commence as a weak
warm front lifts north late, allowing for a WAA to become
established and temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s.
The warmest day will be on Monday as temperatures climb into the 70s
for much of the area, but as a strong cold front pushes east late
Monday/early Tuesday, cooler temperatures will begin to return with
highs only in the 60s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain fairly
mild as temperatures only drop into the upper 40s to 50s.

Unfortunately, by Wednesday below average temperatures return with
highs in the mid 50s and overnight lows once again falling into the
30s. Confidence on the exact temperatures this far out is low, but
depending on cloud coverage, there is a potential that some areas
once again see a frost potential Thursday night. By next weekend,
some models are hinting at a return to near normal temperatures, so
will have to keep an eye on that potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As high pressure slowly departs to the east towards the beginning of
next week, a robust upper level trough will begin to dig south
across the Western U.S. On the leading edge of this trough, multiple
shortwave are expected to move along it providing support for
surface boundaries. The initial push of precipitation is expected to
begin Monday night as moist airmass advects northeast across the
area. Given the overall timing, not expecting any severe weather,
but cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder and localized heavy
rainfall. On Tuesday, an associated cold front is expected to push
east in conjunction with a LLJ of 30-40 knots nudging northeast.
Overall instability looks to remain fairly minimal given early
morning convection, but given overall synoptic and mesoscale
support, expect some rumbles of thunder throughout Tuesday
afternoon. Could see some isolated gusty winds based on the current
forecast, but will keep an eye on things as they evolve in the
coming days.

The aforementioned deepening trough will continue to impact the area
throughout the week as multiple surface boundaries and shortwave
troughs provide support for additional showers and thunderstorms.
Exact timing of the actual trough axis pushing east remains
uncertain given the timing spread amongst models, but expect the
strongest cold front to be associated with that trough axis sometime
between Thursday and Friday. This push east will also mark the start
of the next period of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mixed-bag of VFR, MVFR, and even pockets of IFR across the TAF
sites this morning, associated with both low ceilings and vsbys
from rain and/or wet snow. Ceilings are expected to gradually
improve by this afternoon as precipitation exits the area and
ceilings begin to scatter to low- end VFR (3.5kft).

Winds are generally light and variable this morning, 5 knots or
less. Winds will gradually favor a north to northwest direction
later this morning and afternoon following a compact trough, 8
to 10 knots. Winds will become light and variable again later
this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms late Monday through Wednesday as a cold front
moves southeast across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine conditions are expected for the first
half of the weekend with winds less than 10 knots. Southwest
winds will increase in the 15 to 20 knot range ahead of a cold
front late Sunday through Monday. A Small Craft Advisory could
be needed if winds trend stronger. Otherwise, winds will shift
towards the north behind a cold front late Tuesday into
Wednesday, 10 to 15 knots. A brief Small Craft Advisory may be
needed across the central basin of Lake Erie with the onshore
flow resulting in waves near 4 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn