355
FXUS61 KCLE 151207
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
707 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above average temperatures expected through Friday resulting in
melting the remaining snow pack and potential localized ice jams on
area rivers.

2) Periodic precipitation expected this week, with the greatest
chance on Wednesday and possible rain/snow mix to snow towards the
end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Behind a departing surface low pressure system, high pressure and
upper level ridging will build into the eastern CONUS through early
next week. This will allow for persistent westerly to southwesterly
flow across the region and surface temperatures will gradually
increase to be above average through that time frame. Highs today
will reach into the low to mid 40s, with Monday and Tuesday seeing
highs in the mid to upper 40s and the central Ohio counties seeing
the mid 50s. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as a warm
front will lift south to north across the region early in the day
and increase southwesterly flow. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
50s, with the western portion of the CWA up into the low 60s.
Overnight lows will follow a similar trend, generally staying in the
upper 30s to low 40s most nights.

The increasing temperatures do bring some potential impacts to the
region in the form of snow melt and ice jams. The remaining snow
pack will melt with temperatures finally above freezing, and will
create minor run-off into local streams and rivers. This could
potentially cause rivers to rise and with the ice deteriorating
and breaking apart, could lead to localized ice jams. Will need
to monitor this for the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Periodic showers are expected starting today through the forecast
period. Low pressure will be moving to the south of the region today
that will bring a low chance for precipitation across the southern
tier of counties in the CWA. Any precipitation should end by the
afternoon and move off to the east. Rain chances will return in far
northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Monday night into
Tuesday morning as a shortwave system and surface troughing move
across eastern Lake Erie. Currently, rain chances are fairly low
during this time frame.

Another round of rain showers are expected on Wednesday with a more
potent system moving through the Great Lakes region. With
temperatures warming due to the warm front moving through early that
morning, all of the precipitation will fall as rain. There is some
instability with this system, so a rumble of thunder or two is
possible during the day. Thursday is expected to be dry for the most
part, with some lingering showers possible in the morning. Friday
picks right back up with precipitation as a low pressure system
moves through the Great Lakes. Precipitation will start off as rain
and transition over to a mix then a wet snow by Friday
night/Saturday morning with CAA behind the departing cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Regional radars show rain gradually spreading northeast across
Central Ohio this morning. This area of rain is expected to just
clip MFD/YNG today with the most prolonged rain at CAK between
13-17Z. Observations upstream are deteriorating both in terms of
ceilings and visibilities. Will continue with a mention of IFR
at MFD/CAK this afternoon after the rain ends. For tonight,

The degree of clearing this evening is tricky as deeper moisture
pulls away. For areas that clear, patchy fog or low stratus may
try to develop as we continue to melt the snowpack with moist
boundary layer conditions. Winds will be light through the
period but could see wind shifts off Lake Erie at CLE and ERI
this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR continuing through Monday morning. Non-VFR
possible in rain Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on Lake Erie are expected to be 15 knots or less through
Monday night. Winds develop out of the southeast Tuesday night ahead
of the next system and veer to south/southwest on Wednesday at 15 to
25 knots. Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered with a large crack
located east of Kelly`s Island. Above normal temperatures are
expected for the first half of the week, peaking in the upper 50s on
Wednesday. This will start to rot the ice and could see more
movement of the ice with the stronger winds on Wednesday. Persons
should stay off Lake Erie ice given the forecast for above normal
temperatures and increasing winds this week.

Another system moves into the Central Great Lakes Thursday night
through Friday night with a prolonged period of winds of 20-30
knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10