197
FXUS61 KCLE 230116
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure currently over the eastern Great Lakes will
gradually become absorbed by developing low pressure over New
England on Friday. High pressure builds in from the Midwest for
the weekend, with low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
9:15 PM Update...
Forecast remains on track through tonight as lake enhanced
showers continue across the region while low pressure slowly
exits east. Cloudy and cooler tonight with lows dropping to the
low to mid 40s areawide.

Previous discussion...
Am not exactly rushing to give today`s weather a gold star
across the local area. We have been stuck in moist/chilly
cyclonic flow on the backside of a closed/stacked low currently
located near Buffalo, leading to breezy/rainy/cooler than
average conditions. This closed low will slowly drift east
tonight into Friday before becoming absorbed by developing low
pressure over New England through the day Friday. Broader
troughing aloft and low-level cyclonic flow will persist through
Friday night across the local area, with high pressure not truly
starting to build in until the start of the weekend.

Showers remain pretty widespread across the area late this
afternoon, though should gradually become more confined to
Northeast OH and Northwest PA as synoptic lift decreases tonight
into Friday and as drier air in the low-mid levels gradually
starts working in from the west. From Northeast OH into
Northwest PA the showers will likely begin "lulling" at times
this evening, but won`t completely stop until some point later
Friday night or early Saturday. This is because of some lake-
enhancement amid west-northwest flow, along with somewhat deeper
synoptic moisture and a bit more synoptic lift behind our
gradually departing closed low. Even across Northeast OH and
into Northwest PA we`ll likely be down to rather light/spotty
showers by Friday night, though enough to keep some POPs in the
forecast. Additional rain amounts for most of the area will be
under 0.10", with 0.10-0.25" across the snowbelt and locally a
bit more in the higher terrain of Erie County, PA.

Temperatures struggled to get out of the low to mid 50s this
afternoon. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s. Friday will be
slightly warmer than today, with highs still mainly in the 50s
area-wide...nearing 60 in Northwest OH. Lows Friday night are
once again expected to bottom out in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley on
Saturday through Sunday. The strongest of these disturbances should
move SE`ward across our CWA on Sunday. At the surface, weak
troughing lingers over/near the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH
Valley as a ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest. This
weather pattern at the surface and aloft will maintain an unusually-
cold air mass across our region for late May. Late afternoon highs
are expected to reach the 50`s in NW PA and the upper 50`s to mid
60`s in northern OH on Saturday. Overnight lows should reach mainly
the upper 30`s to upper 40`s around daybreak Sunday. During the late
afternoon on Sunday, highs are expected to reach the upper 50`s to
mid 60`s.

Primarily fair weather is expected in our CWA through Sunday as the
aforementioned surface ridge attempts to build into our region and
is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. However, NW`erly mean low-
level flow, 850 mb temperatures near 1C over/downwind of ~15C Lake
Erie, and greater/deeper low-level moisture should allow isolated
lake-effect rain showers to impact far-NE OH and NW PA during the
morning through early afternoon hours of Saturday. Lake-effect
precip should end later Saturday afternoon as weak lake-induced CAPE
wanes via synoptic-scale low-level dry air advection and a lowering
subsidence inversion accompanying the aforementioned ridge. During
Sunday afternoon through early evening, isolated rain showers may
impact far-eastern Lake Erie and clip NW PA as the aforementioned
shortwave trough moves SE`ward across our region, is accompanied by
a surface trough axis, and low-level convergence/moist ascent along
the surface trough axis release weak potential instability.

Fair weather is expected region-wide Sunday night as the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft begins to build in
earnest from the Upper Midwest and is accompanied by stabilizing
subsidence. Easing surface winds and pockets of clear sky should
contribute to overnight lows reaching mainly the lower 40`s to lower
50`s around daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Current odds favor dry weather in our CWA on Monday as the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft continues to build and
eventually crests E`ward in northern OH and NW PA. Accordingly,
stabilizing subsidence should continue to impact our region. Weak
low-level CAA transitions gradually to weak low-level WAA as our
region becomes located along the western flank of the surface ridge.
This factor combined with intervals of sunshine should allow late
afternoon highs to reach the 60`s.

Aloft, cyclonic W`erly to SW`erly flow and embedded shortwave
troughs should impact the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley
Monday night through Thursday as a longwave trough axis approaches
slowly from the northern and central Great Plains and eventually the
central Great Lakes and Lower MO Valley. At the surface, an
attendant trough should overspread our region from the TN and Mid OH
Valleys as an embedded low wobbles NE`ward from the south-central
United States toward southwestern QC. This low track may allow a
surface warm front to sweep NE`ward through our CWA on Wednesday and
a weak trailing surface cold front to sweep generally E`ward across
our CWA Wednesday night into Thursday. Periods of rain showers
should impact our region Monday night through Thursday due a
combination of the following: Moist isentropic ascent aloft
preceding the shortwave trough axes and the longwave trough axis;
moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front;
low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front.

Late afternoon highs should reach the 60`s on Tuesday and mainly the
mid 60`s to lower 70`s on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows
should reach mainly the upper 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak
Tuesday and mainly the lower to mid 50`s around daybreak Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Continued lake enhanced rain showers and MVFR cloud cover
persist, mainly across eastern terminals, with VFR ceilings
across western terminals. This will likely continue through
tonight and much of Friday morning before any remaining MVFR
ceilings lift to low-end VFR Friday afternoon and evening.
Occasional reductions to IFR in cigs/vis remain possible over
the next few hours in heaviest rain showers.

Northwesterly to westerly winds 8-12 knots continue through
tonight before increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots
by Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM EDT Saturday for
U.S. nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley. Beach Hazards
Statement for a high risk of rip currents remains in effect until 1
AM EDT Saturday along the Lake Erie shore from Erie County, OH to
Erie County, PA.

A low wobbles ENE`ward from the eastern Great Lakes to the Canadian
Maritimes through Saturday as the attendant trough lingers over Lake
Erie. Accordingly, SW`erly to NW`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots
through midnight tonight become primarily W`erly to NW`erly over
Lake Erie during the predawn hours of Friday morning. Waves of 3 to
8 feet are expected east of Vermilion, while shorter fetch will
result in waves of 1 to 4 feet in U.S. waters farther west. Very
similar wind and wave conditions are expected during the daylight
hours of Friday. During Friday night, W`erly to NW`erly winds are
expected to ease gradually to around 10 to 15 knots. Waves are
expected to subside gradually to 3 feet or less by daybreak
Saturday. Future forecast trends may require the Small Craft
Advisory to be extended in time, especially east of The Islands.
W`erly to NW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or
less are expected on Saturday.

During Saturday night through Monday, a ridge is expected to build
from the western Great Lakes. Variable winds around 5 to 15 knots
and waves of 3 feet or less are expected. NE`erly to E`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are forecast Monday
night through Tuesday as the ridge exits gradually to the north
through east and a weak trough overspreads Lake Erie from the TN and
Mid OH Valleys.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for
     OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...13/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...13
MARINE...Jaszka