048
FXUS61 KCLE 052027
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
427 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary across central Ohio tonight
and Friday before pushing south Friday night and Saturday as
high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes. A warm front
will lift across the region Sunday and Sunday night as low
pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low will pull a cold
front across the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid afternoon surface analysis places the cold front from
roughly the southern shore of Lake Erie down the I-71 corridor,
with a low-level wind shift clearly noted in regional METARS.
The old band of showers is still slowly sagging east and
southeastward along the front, but renewed convective
development has been taking place over the past 90 minutes from
about Meadville to Marion. This is where sunshine earlier today
allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s, which when
combined with fairly deep low-level moisture allowed for MLCAPE
values of 500-1000 J/Kg in a narrow ribbon. This is weak
buoyancy for June, largely due to poor mid-level lapse rates,
but this differential heating boundary ahead of the main front
combined with just enough instability and what appears to be a
weak mid-level shortwave has allowed for convection. The
limited instability will keep any severe threat localized late
this afternoon, but a pocket of 30-35 knot effective bulk shear
and steeper low-level lapse rates in this area could lead to
isolated wind damage as well as some hail in the briefly taller
cores. Overall, there will be a lack of convective organization.
The bigger hazard through this evening will be locally heavy
rainfall. Low-level moisture pooling as the cold front becomes
quasi-stationary over the region will result in PWATS of 1.50 to
1.75 inches (90th percentile per NAEFS climatology for June
5-6), and this combined with a skinny CAPE profile, deep warm
cloud layer, and the stalling front becoming parallel to the
deep layer WSW flow will lead to repeated convective development
with efficient rainfall. There is uncertainty on where the
exact placement of the stalled boundary will be, but it should
orient near the US 30 corridor later this evening through
tonight.

The forecast remains complicated on the placement of the front
and resultant placement of convection tonight and Friday. HREF
members suggest convection will die out with nocturnal cooling
overnight, leaving mainly scattered showers across the area, but
a weak wave of surface low pressure will slowly ride along the
front from east central Indiana this evening to western
Pennsylvania by Friday evening. This wave is driven by the left
exit of a 70-80 knot H3 jet streak rounding the base of a
slightly stronger mid/upper shortwave trough progressing through
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. As the low approaches, the
front may jog northward slightly late tonight and Friday, with
the aforementioned jet support focusing additional convective
development Friday afternoon. Placement of this convection is
uncertain, with certain HREF members (HRRR and ARW for example)
developing convection closer to the lake compared to others
remaining much farther south. Instability and shear profiles
will be very similar to today, so expect loosely organized
multicell clusters capable of locally damaging winds and hail,
but there is again uncertainty in whether the storms will remain
near US 30 or develop farther north depending on how far north
the front drifts. At this time, the SWODY2 Marginal Risk for
southern areas looks reasonable. Locally heavy rainfall from
repeated storms/training will again be the bigger hazard hence
the day 2 marginal ERO.

High pressure building down across the Great Lakes Friday night
will finally start to push the boundary south of the region,
with drier conditions developing from north to south. Highs will
range from the low to mid 70s Friday, with lows in the low 60s
tonight cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s Friday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will begin to build into the region Saturday and most
locations will remain dry for the start of the short term period,
although there is some potential for a few stray showers across far
southeastern zones. The next chance of showers will arrive Saturday
night and especially Sunday and Sunday night as the next shortwave
and a warm front cross the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a
weakening surface low will track somewhere across the Ohio Valley
and possibly over the local area. There`s still some uncertainty
with the track of the low, but currently thinking there will be
sufficient lift/moisture to warrant at least chance PoPs across the
area for Sunday. Will continue to refine rain chances as confidence
increases in subsequent updates. High temps will be in the 70s
throughout the weekend with lows in the 50s and lower 60s
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough will dig into the region early next week with a
surface cold front crossing the local area at some point on Monday.
The upper trough will linger over the region through as late as
Tuesday before exiting to the east no later than early Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible ahead of and along this
front with scattered showers remaining possible in lingering
troughing into Tuesday. Dry weather will return for Wednesday and
Thursday as the trough departs to the east and ridge builds in from
the west.

High temperatures will generally be in the 70s early next week with
highs beginning to warm Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread lower
80s may return by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The cold front is slowly crossing the region this afternoon,
with showers and thunderstorms starting to increase in coverage
with daytime heating. KTOL has been IFR with light rain and low
clouds for several hours, but VFR is holding farther east.
Expect brief drops in cigs and visibilities as the heavier
showers and thunderstorms move through this afternoon and early
evening, but the more prevailing MVFR and IFR cigs and
visibilities will hold off until this evening and overnight. The
best chance for thunder this afternoon is at KCAK and KYNG where
a ribbon of stronger heating has resulted in better instability,
otherwise, expect mainly off and on showers. Lower confidence in
thunder completely avoiding KCLE, so kept a TEMPO there based
on current radar trends. Once the lower cigs and visibilities
move in tonight, there will likely be LIFR conditions at times
and occasional fog, but the coverage of showers will
significantly decrease overnight. Gradual improvement is
expected Friday morning, but cigs will remain IFR to MVFR, and
additional showers will develop by midday, especially in
southern areas where the stalled frontal boundary remains.

Winds will gradually turn more northerly at 5-10 knots at KTOL,
KFDY, KCLE, and KERI this evening through Friday morning, but
the frontal stalling over southern areas will keep a more
southerly component at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR expected with scattered showers
and thunderstorms through Friday night. Non-VFR may return in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds 10 knots or less will continue through Friday
evening before becoming more northerly Friday night through much of
Saturday. Winds once again shift to the northeast as a warm front
approaches on Sunday with flow becoming more southwesterly behind
the front Sunday night. Winds may increase to about 15 knots Sunday
night through Monday, but at this time marine headlines are not
anticipated through early next week. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms are possible into Friday with additional showers/storms
possible Sunday through as late as Tuesday. Any thunderstorms could
result in higher winds/waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...15