662
FXUS61 KCLE 231825
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
225 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will then sweep east through the area tonight into
Sunday, followed by lingering surface troughing persisting through
Tuesday. High pressure will gradually build across the region
from the west by Wednesday, which will linger across the area
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front extending across the Great Lakes will work its way
east across our forecast area tonight and tomorrow. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected ahead of and near the cold front
tonight through tomorrow morning, though PoPs are quite low (in
the 10-20% range). Most of the daytime hours tomorrow will be
precipitation-free though. A surface trough will cold air aloft
will lead to lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Erie in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An unseasonably cold airmass continues to build in through the
short term period, resulting in periods of lake effect rain
showers (especially Monday and Monday night) in Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania, along with chilly, fall-like
temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s are expected
with a few climate sites could be near record low temperatures
with forecast low in the 40s (see climate section below).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect rain winds down on Wednesday as high pressure builds
in. The chilly airmass remains on Wednesday before temperatures
rebound into the mid to upper 70s Thursday through Saturday.
Still no 80s in the forecast, and generally no precipitation as
high pressure remains across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Aloft, cyclonic WSW`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a ridge continues
exiting E`ward before a cold front sweeps E`ward through
northern OH and NW PA between ~03Z and ~12Z/Sun. Behind the
front, a trough lingers over and near Lake Erie, including our
region, through 18Z/Sun.

Ahead of the cold front, our regional surface winds trend
SW`erly to WSW`erly around 5 to 15 knots. Behind the front,
W`erly to WNW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected.
Primarily fair weather and VFR are expected through the TAF
period. However, isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are
possible for several hours along and ahead of the cold front.
Brief MVFR to IFR are possible with these showers/storms.

Outlook...Lake-effect rain showers are expected this Sunday night
through Wednesday night over and generally east or southeast of Lake
Erie. Note: scattered rain showers associated with a passing
disturbance are possible in all of northern OH and NW PA on Monday.
Lake-effect rain showers may continue this Thursday and occur over
and primarily northeast of Lake Erie. Non-VFR should accompany any
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will continue to be fairly good this weekend.
Winds will become south and southwesterly 5 to 15 knots today and
waves of 1 to 2 feet nearshore and 1 to 3 feet offshore. A cold
front will move across Lake Erie tonight with a chance for a few
scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Westerly winds will
follow the passage of the cold front tonight into Sunday 10 to 15
knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet. Winds will increase Sunday night
through Tuesday becoming westerly to northwesterly winds of 15 to 20
knots and waves 2 to 5 feet. After nicer lake and marine conditions
this weekend, they will become rougher again for early this week.
Additional Small Craft Advisories and possibly Beach Hazard
Statements for rip currents may be needed late Sunday night through
Tuesday. There may also be the chance for waterspouts on Lake Erie
late Sunday night through Tuesday with the push of cooler
temperatures. Marine conditions will start improving by middle of
next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-cold air mass will arrive across the region early
next week. Some sites may reach or exceed their daily record
low temperatures.

Previous Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures...

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
08-26   45(1964)       38(1958)       47(1958)       41(1914)       40(1897)       47(1958)
08-27   48(1969)       36(1946)       49(1963)       44(1914)       43(1969)       47(1954)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...77
CLIMATE...