930
FXUS61 KCLE 050908
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
408 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into
Thursday. This low will briefly lift a warm front north through
the area Thursday morning, followed by a cold front Thursday
evening. High pressure will briefly return on Friday, followed
by another low pressure system for Saturday into Sunday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winter Weather Advisories have been posted across the entire
area late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning for the
potential of one tenth to two tenths of ice accretion from
freezing rain. One thing to note is that the 10 AM end time for
the Advisories is intentional to account for residual slick
spots, particularly on elevated surfaces, as temperatures are
not expected to warm into the 40s until the late morning and
early afternoon.

Current water vapor this morning reveals an upper-level low
near Brownsville, TX, in addition to a developing mid-level
shortwave moving eastwards across the Central Rockies. This
upper-level low will supply the necessary moisture, evident by
the high moisture content from the current ALPW imagery, for
our freezing rain event late Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning. The recent 6Z NAM 300K isentropic surface confirms the
moisture origin source, with a brief window of moderate to
strong isentropic ascent arriving into the region between 3-12Z
Thursday.

Surface temperatures are expected to remain below freezing
through today, with temperatures likely in the mid to upper 20s
for the onset of freezing rain late this evening and overnight.
Area soundings across north- central Ohio reveal a parameter
space conducive for convective freezing rain, with steep mid-
level lapse rates atop a sharp, but shallow, low- level
temperature inversion. In this situation, this may actually
limit the concern for any widespread, higher accumulations
exceeding a quarter inch of ice, given the relatively brief, but
heavy, nature of the freezing rain.

Freezing rain will begin transitioning over to light rain
Thursday morning, though this will also be when the heavier
precipitation exits east of the region. Surface temperatures
don`t really start to increase into the 40s until the late
morning and early afternoon, so slick spots could continue to
cause issues for the Thursday morning commute, especially on
elevated surfaces such as bridges and untreated surfaces. For
the most part, ice accumulations are expected to range between
one tenth and two tenths of an inch, though locally higher
amounts around a quarter inch are certainly possible.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in from northwest Thursday night through Friday
night, with partly cloudy skies allowing for the sun to show its
face for some of the day Friday. Temperatures will be on the cooler
side with lows in the 20s and Friday afternoon highs in the low 30s.

An upper-level trough deepens as it moves from the northern Great
Plains early Saturday morning to the Great Lakes region by Saturday
night. The associated surface low is expected to track from mid-
Mississippi Valley to nearly overhead by Saturday afternoon/evening,
with model-ensemble means likely strengthening it to 1005mb or
lower. An expansive precipitation shield is likely to build in from
the southwest ahead of the low pressure center sometime Saturday
afternoon, overspreading the area Saturday evening through Saturday
night.

Just like our upcoming system that is expected tonight, a wintry mix
is expected, with the precipitation type forecast subject to small
changes in the forecast. The general idea has been fairly consistent
though, with confidence increasing in a wintry mix that features
snow, sleet, and freezing rain with light to moderate freezing rain
accumulations likely producing the greatest impacts. Current
probabilities of at least 0.01" of freezing rain has been holding at
around 40-50% for a few cycles now. The somewhat "low probabilities"
is likely due to an expected narrower band of freezing rain, with
minor north/south adjustments in each ensemble leading to these
lower probabilities. Regardless, nearly every ensemble shows some
amount of freezing rain somewhere in our forecast area, it`s just
the details that need to get ironed out. There`s also a split in the
transition to rain Saturday evening/night as the low moves across
the forecast area (or least the vicinity if not overhead). Some have
a pretty smooth north-south gradient with the p-type, with that p-
type maintaining itself, others had more of a northeastward "surge"
of a transition over to rain, with a solid temperature increase (40s
perhaps?). This is likely dependent on strength track of the surface
low. Regardless of uncertainties in model guidance, confidence in
the general idea of a wintry mix is becoming quite high at this
point.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure is likely to build in on Sunday and Monday, so we have
ourselves at least a two day stretch of quiet weather. Temperatures
remain on the cooler side with highs in the low 30s and lows in the
20s but at least there`s the chance for a little sun each day.
Precipitation chances return on Tuesday, primarily in the form of
snow.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Generally VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with
primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. A few pockets
of MVFR will remain possible across the eastern TAF sites
through the next several hours as the lower ceilings continue to
slowly lift northwards. Otherwise, main concern will be towards
the end of the TAF period as a wintry mix of mainly freezing
rain and sleet arrive from the southwest. Onset of precipitation
appears to be around 4 to 6Z, so only going with light 6sm fzra
at this time. A brief period of heavier fzra will likely arrive
between 6 and 9Z and will be reflected in the next TAF update.

Winds are generally out of the northeast early this morning, 5
to 10 knots. Winds will gradually become out of the east today,
holding steady around 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in rain and low ceilings on Thursday.
Non- VFR will return in widespread rain and/or snow on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
due to extensive ice cover.

Low pressure moves northeast across the area tonight through
Thursday with strong west winds of 25 to 30 knots expected Thursday
through Friday morning. High pressure briefly builds in on Friday
before another low moves eastward across the area just south of Lake
Erie Saturday and Saturday night. There could be periods of 20+ kts
winds with easterly Saturday and then with northwest flow late
Saturday night into Sunday.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     OHZ012>014-023-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders