890
FXUS61 KCLE 111901
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
301 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of
Northwest and North-Central Ohio until 8 PM, mainly for damaging
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of North-Central and Northeast Ohio into Wednesday morning
as torrential rainfall and isolated flash flooding also remain
possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Thursday night. The greatest potential for strong to severe
storms and isolated flooding will be this afternoon and evening
across portions of Northwest and North-Central Ohio.

2) Unsettled weather will return Saturday night through
Sunday as a low pressure systems brings another round of showers
and storms to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a loosely-
organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving east into
portions of Northwest and North-Central Ohio this afternoon.
For the most part, peak wind gusts within this cluster are
generally below 50 mph and non-severe, supported by weak MLCAPE
around 1000 J/kg and gradually warming cloud tops, though
isolated severe wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph will remain possible
into this evening given the strong shear in place, especially
across the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area which is in place
until 8 PM. Otherwise, main concern will be the moderate to
heavy rain associated with the stratiform convection approaching
the area, with radar estimating rates in excess of 2 inches per
hour which could result in minor/nuisance flooding given the
already- saturated ground across much of the area. A Flood Watch
remains in effect into Wednesday morning. Showers and storms
should exit east of the area by around 10/11 PM, with some
patches of fog possible overnight.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms appears to be
Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak trough slides south
across the area. Not anticipating anything severe, though could
see a few stronger storms with small hail or wind gusts
approaching 50 mph, especially across Northeast Ohio. This
trough is expected to stall near or just south of the US-30
corridor Thursday afternoon or evening. Another wave of low
pressure will move east along this boundary Thursday night, with
heavy rain being the primary concern. There remains some
uncertainty with the boundary placement (could be further south)
and therefore the flooding threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next period for unsettled weather will be Saturday night
into Sunday as a low pressure system moves east through the
Great Lakes, extending a cold front across the area Sunday
night. Will continue to monitor the threat for any stronger
storms, especially Sunday afternoon with the latest guidance
suggesting a potent 700 mb shortwave of 30 to 35 knots entering
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Convection is moving into Western Ohio currently and is on a
southeasterly track. Expecting impacts to most terminals through
00Z this evening, with less confidence in impacts with eastern
terminals. As thunderstorms move over the terminals, IFR
conditions with strong, west to southwesterly winds are likely
for an hour or two. Behind the thunderstorms, conditions will
likely become non-VFR as ceilings drop. Fog is expected across
much of the region beginning around 06Z, with patchy fog closer
for KCLE and KERI. LIFR visibility is possible for KCAK and KYNG
for a few hours early tomorrow morning before dissipating after
13Z. Low VFR to MVFR ceilings are possible after the fog
dissipates through midday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
into Thursday night. Non- VFR possible again in showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible across Lake Erie this
afternoon and evening as a feature moves south of the lake. Strong
winds and frequent lightning is possible as this moves through.
Conditions will improve late this evening and winds will be
generally out of the southwest at 5-10 knots. By late Thursday night
into Friday morning, winds will shift to be out of the north-
northeast at around 10-15 knots. A warm front will lift north across
the lake late Saturday evening and winds will shift to be out of the
south-southeast at 10-15 knots. A cold front will follow Sunday
night and winds will shift to be out of the northwest at 10-15
knots. Waves through the week will generally be less than 2 feet
through Thursday evening, then building to around 1-3 feet through
the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ003-006>011-
     017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23