717
FXUS61 KCLE 200512
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
112 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to sweep southeastward across the
region through early this evening before slowing over the Ohio
Valley tonight. High pressure will briefly build over the region
Sunday before the front lifts back north as a warm front Sunday
night into early Monday as low pressure tracks northeast into
the Upper Midwest. This low will push a cold front east across
the region on during the day Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

1:12 AM EDT Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...

Some light showers are present ahead of a cold front that is
progressing southeast across the area and latest radar shows
convective showers attempting to develop along the front.
Clearing across southeastern zones has allowed some surface-
based instability to develop and there is still at least a small
chance of one last round of convection within the next few
hours before the front exits to the southeast this evening. If
any storms do manage to develop, isolated instances of gusty
winds and hail cannot be ruled out. With that being said, the
best instability and higher risk of stronger storms will likely
remain to the southeast of the CWA. Have maintained high-end
chance PoPs (around 50 percent) in locations that may see
showers/storms through early this evening with PoPs quickly
tapering off from 00Z onward as high pressure builds in behind
the front. It`s possible that showers/storms are a bit more
hit or miss than anticipated, so PoPs may be tapered back
further in the next update.

The break in precip will be short-lived and rain chances return
Sunday night as the aforementioned front lifts north from the
Ohio Valley as a warm front in response to a low ejecting from
the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Upper Midwest. Isentropic
ascent ahead of the warm front will allow PoPs to increase from
southwest to northeast near or shortly after Midnight Sunday
night. The best chances of precip will arrive after 12Z/8 AM
Monday (see short term discussion below).

Tonight`s lows will fall into the 40s in most spots, but
portions of interior NW PA will likely dip into the upper
30s. Sunday`s highs will likely reach the 50s and lower 60s with
the warmest temps expected along and south of U.S. Route 30.
Northeast winds off of Lake Erie may keep temperatures across
portions of northwestern Ohio in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Sunday night`s lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
however locations downwind from Lake Erie will be in the cooler
mid-40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure originating from the Central Plains will move north
into the Upper Midwest during the day on Monday. This low will lift
a warm front north across the Upper Ohio Valley early Monday
allowing for some rain showers to develop during the daytime hours.
Southerly return flow will allow for temperatures to rise into the
mid 70s. Dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s coupled with
diurnal heating should allow for enough instability to develop
Monday afternoon and early evening to support isolated
thunderstorms. Severe threat remains low given the weak instablilty
but the wind field may support strong storms producing gusty winds
and small hail. The low continues to lift north by Monday evening
and will drag a cold front east Monday evening with PoPs decreasing
through early Tuesday morning as high pressure enters from the west.
Tuesday will be dry under high pressure with forecast highs in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds to the east on Wednesday while a warm
front lifts east across Lake Erie. Models begin to diverge by
Thursday as both the ECMWF and Canadian have the upper level ridge
persisting through Thursday evening while the GFS lifts a shortwave
across the region. Have maintained low PoPs Thursday afternoon
onward with PoPs increasing on Friday given the better forcing
aloft. High pressure will begin to build overhead from the north,
but rain chances may linger through the first half of the weekend.

High temperatures are forecasted to rise into the low/mid 70s
through Friday with slightly cooler highs in the 60s expected on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A ridge aloft impacts our region through 06Z/Mon as the ridge
axis moves E`ward from near the Upper MS and Lower OH Valleys to
near Lake Ontario and eastern NC. At the surface, the ridge
continues to affect our region as the embedded high pressure
center moves from the northern Great Lakes to southwestern QC.
Accordingly, fair weather and primarily VFR are expected through
the TAF period.

Lingering low-level clouds and resulting MVFR ceilings over
north-central and northeast OH, and northwest PA are expected
to exit generally SSE`ward by 09Z/Sun. Otherwise, an upper-
level ceiling is likely through the TAF period as abundant
cirriform cloud cover continues to advance generally E`ward and
eventually NE`ward across our area. NW`erly to N`erly surface
winds at 06Z/Sun will veer gradually to SE`erly by 06Z/Mon as
wind speeds remain around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and thunderstorms
on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively. Southwesterly
wind gusts up to 30 to 35 knots are expected late Monday morning
through early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds 10-15 knots this afternoon will turn northerly behind
a cold front by tonight. Northerly winds will gradually becoming
northeasterly to easterly during the day on Sunday as high pressure
builds overhead from the north. As the high exits to the east, a warm
front will lift north towards the lake Sunday night into Monday
morning which will shift winds southerly while increasing to 15-20
knots. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for these higher winds
on Monday morning and afternoon. Winds turn southwesterly behind a
cold front Monday night and Tuesday while decreasing to 10-15 knots
as another area of high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/15
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...13