621
FXUS61 KCLE 240716
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
316 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No impactful changes were made with this morning`s forecast
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Nicer and drier weather will arrive today for most of the
area. Scattered lake effect rain showers with isolated thunder
possible will continue to impact far NEOH and NWPA today through
tonight.

3) A weak cold front will move across the Great Lakes region
late Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Scattered lake effect rain showers and isolated thunder will
continue to impact the "Snowbelt" area of far Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania today through tonight. A deep upper
level trough has developed over the eastern half of the Great
Lakes this morning and will slowly move eastward by tomorrow.
The backside of this trough will continue to bring a cooler
northerly flow over the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight
before it finally pulls away Tuesday. Therefore, scattered lake
effect rain showers will continue over NEOH and NWPA through
early Tuesday morning. Rain chances or POPS will be likely today
and gradually decrease overnight into early Tuesday morning.

For the rest of northern and central Ohio, nicer weather will
return today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier
weather. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley today
and continue to bring very nice weather through Wednesday.
High temperatures will be cooler today with upper 60s in far
NEOH and NWPA where there will be more clouds and showers from
lake effect. North central and Northwest Ohio will have more
sunshine with passing scattered clouds and high temps in the
lower to middle 70s. It will also feel less humid with the drier
airmass moving. High temps will slowly climb over the next few
days reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday areawide.
Overnight low temps will be in the 50s away from the immediate
lakeshore.


KEY MESSAGE 2..
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
night through Thursday evening with a weak, slow moving cold
front across the Great Lakes region. The latest model guidance
has trended slightly downward on POPs and QPF. At this time, it
appears there will be scattered showers and some thunder
possible with the greater POPs around 40 to 50 percent during
day Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this as
the thermodynamics looks fairly weak. High pressure will build
back into the region on Friday with warm and nice day. High
temperatures will climb through next weekend with lower to
middle 80s across the area.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Main potential impacts this TAF period are lake effect clouds
and rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA,
and slightly elevated west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15kt
with some 20-25kt gusts late this morning and this afternoon.
Main impacts from the lake effect will be at ERI, where
occasional and mainly short-lived vsby restrictions are possible
with any showers that impact the field. Shower activity may
focus a bit south and east for the most part. Some showers may
impact CLE, primarily early this morning, though for the most
part CLE will be dry. A broken cloud deck below 5000 feet will
likely develop across Northeast OH and Northwest PA for several
hours this afternoon before scattering out or lifting this
evening. Western terminals should remain VFR throughout.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in lake effect rain and/or
low ceilings in far NE OH and NW PA into Tuesday. Non-VFR may
return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will continue across much of Lake Erie
through Monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25
knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. Marine conditions will
gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday as winds subside to 10
knots or less. Winds will shift towards the south to southwest on
Wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by Thursday.

A few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across
the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie through this evening,
associated with showers and thunderstorms. There is also a risk for
waterspouts into Tuesday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144-
     145.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Kahn