976
FXUS61 KCLE 061934
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front across central Ohio will push south into the
Ohio River Valley tonight as Canadian high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. A warm front will begin to approach
Saturday night as weak low pressure moves out of the Mid
Mississippi Valley. The front will lift across the region Sunday
ahead of stronger low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest.
This low will progress across the Great Lakes Monday and drag a
strong cold front through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Convection has blossomed across the SE portion of the CWA this
afternoon. This is where breaks in the overcast allowed for
just enough surface heating which when combined with slightly
improved mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture led
to 1000-1200 J/Kg of MLCAPE. A mid/upper shortwave progressing
out of central Indiana and associated 65-70 knot H3 jet streak
is supporting a weak wave of surface low pressure that is
traversing the quasi-staionary boundary this afternoon, and that
has boosted the lift to trigger convection. The overall shear
environment is still unimpressive, but effective bulk shear has
slightly increased to around 30 knots with the approach of the
shortwave. This is supporting loosely organized multicell
clusters capable of gusty winds and small hail. An isolated
severe cell with damaging winds to 60 mph is not out of the
question, but the potential is rapidly diminishing as the
convection progresses off to the E/SE. Locally heavy rainfall
is also being monitored since soils are wet from 2 to 3 inches
of rain in some of these same locations yesterday afternoon, and
PWATs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches, deep warm cloud layers, skinny CAPE
profiles, and slow/repeated cell movement is leading to
efficient rainfall rates.

As suggested above, the convection is expected to exit E/SE of
the region late this afternoon, and it should mainly be gone by
21Z as the synoptic support begins to depart, with the frontal
boundary finally sinking southward behind it. Scattered showers
will linger near the US 30 corridor through early tonight, but
they should be done by 05Z as surface high pressure building
into the northern Great Lakes pushes the front into the Ohio
Valley and brings drier air down into the region. The main
concern overnight is fog potential. Lingering low-level moisture
and pockets of wet soil as high pressure and resulting
subsidence build in is a good set-up for radiation fog below an
inversion. The location and coverage of this fog is lower
confidence, so kept fog to patchy at this time across NE Ohio
and NW PA and along the US 30 corridor and central highlands
region. This is where potential is greater.

The high will take control Saturday allowing for quite a bit of
sunshine other than pockets of haze from lingering Canadian
wildfire smoke. Canadian high pressure and a mid/upper trough
axis progressing across the Great Lakes will support a
comfortably cool, less humid day with highs in the mid/upper
70s. The high will quickly shift east Saturday night, and a
convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough lifting out of
the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday night may support a surface
wave riding along the old frontal boundary near the Ohio
Valley, with the boundary starting to creep back northward ahead
of the feature. The latest NAM and RAP significantly differ
with how this evolves due to a lot of convective feedback in the
NAM resulting in an unrealistically deep surface low. This
lowers confidence, but probabilities are increasing for showers
to at least spread into southern areas late Saturday night, so
kept chance PoPs, but slowed the northward expansion from
previous forecasts given the dry air and uncertainty. The better
potential from this wave will likely hold off until Sunday
morning. Lows Saturday night will mainly range from the upper
50s to low 60s, with some mid 50s in interior NW PA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure and a shortwave aloft will move across the Ohio
Valley through Sunday evening. The shortwave will exit to the
northeast Sunday night before a broad upper trough dives southeast
towards the eastern Great Lakes region on Monday. Periods of showers
and thunderstorms are expected with both the shortwave on Sunday and
the broad upper trough through Monday. The better chance for
organized convection will be on Monday given the increased
instability and bulk layer shear ahead of a surface cold front.

High temperatures will rise into the mid 70s Sunday and Monday while
remaining humid with dew points in the lower 60s each afternoon.
Overnight lows settle in the upper 50s to lower 60s each night.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aforementioned upper level trough will continue to gradually push
east across the local area at the start of the long term period.
Continued showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday before
high pressure builds overhead from the west for Wednesday and
Thursday. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will come on
Friday as an upper level disturbance approaches the region from
the southwest.

Gradual warming trend through the long term with highs in the
low/mid 70s on Tuesday expected to rise into the low/mid 80s by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The combination of low clouds and mist from pooling moisture
near the stationary front draped over the region, as well as
lingering smoke/haze from Canadian wildfires is allowing IFR and
MVFR to prevail, even with daytime heating this afternoon. Went
a little lower with cigs and visibilities in most of the TAFs
this afternoon into tonight as these conditions will be slow to
improve. Breaks of VFR will certainly occur this afternoon and
evening, but they are tough to time. In terms of precip, a few
lingering showers will slowly exit from northwest to southeast
this afternoon and evening, with the best chance for thunder
occurring over the next hour at KCAK and KYNG. Once the precip
completely exits this evening, will need to watch for fog
development again late tonight. Confidence is not overly high on
the fog, but high pressure starting to build in overtop of
lingering low-level moisture certainly points to an inversion
fog set-up, so reduced visibilities in the TAFs in the 08-12Z
timeframe, with some IFR/LIFR likely. KERI has the best chance
to see the most dense fog. Drier air will finally win out
Saturday, and expect all sites to eventually become VFR.

Light and somewhat variable northerly winds this afternoon and
evening will become more solidly N to NE at 5-10 knots tonight
and Saturday as high pressure builds southward across the Great
Lakes and pushes the frontal boundary south of the region.

Outlook...Non-VFR is likely with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally onshore flow between 8 and 12 knots, occasionally 15
knots, will continue through Saturday night. Flow becomes
northeasterly to easterly at 10-15 knots by Sunday morning as a warm
front approaches the lake. Low pressure will pass in the vicinity
of Lake Erie during the day Sunday with winds turning southwesterly
by Sunday night. Southwesterly to southerly flow 10-15 knots is
expected to persist through the middle of next week. Winds and waves
should remain below small craft criteria. Winds and waves may be
higher in thunderstorms over the lake Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...13