862
FXUS61 KCLE 011750
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
150 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes region will remain in place
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:34 AM EDT Update...

Made changes to our sky cover forecast through this early
afternoon to account for the following: trends in satellite
imagery and model guidance; lake-effect cumuliform clouds
continuing to stream generally SW`ward over/downwind of Lake
Erie amidst a NE`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-
cold/moist air over/downwind of the ~26C lake and sizable lake-
induced instability. Expect these lake-effect clouds to
dissipate by midday as daytime heating of surrounding land
causes Lake Erie to no longer be the main source of warmth,
moisture, and therefore instability. Rest of the forecast
remains valid.

Previous Discussion...

High pressure with northwest flow aloft over the Great Lakes
region will allow for dry weather and cooler than normal
conditions through Saturday. Cooler air with some residual
moisture in the northeast flow could allow for some lake clouds
to filter into North Central and Northwest Ohio through the
period. However, the thermodynamics are not the most favorable
for showers to develop with just some marginal and rather
shallow moisture in the 850-900 mb layer. Temperatures will be
in the 70s through the period for highs and lows will be cool in
the 50s with some upper 40s possible in the typical drainage
locations of NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will be status quo with dry weather, as
high pressure remains over the region. The surface high will
move east and some return flow will enter, allowing for high
temperatures to creep higher through Monday with 80s expected
early next week. However, the moisture and humidity will
struggle to return with northwest flow aloft through the
weekend. Some upper ridging will allow for the warmer
temperatures and better moisture with the first arrival of 60
dew points on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the middle of next week, the pattern appears to be typical
of early August. The forecast area will be between high
pressure to the east and systems moving through the Upper
Midwest. There will be some more moisture entering the region
with mid 60s dew points by the middle of the week with the
southerly flow in the area. Therefore, there could be some
diurnally driven showers and storms but there will be no upper
level support of note, so confidence in convection or its
coverage is very low at this time and have just some low PoPs in
the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions through the period as high pressure slowly build
east across the Great Lakes. Some diurnal cu will affect some
terminals through 00Z, but otherwise little sensible weather
concern. Northeast winds may gust at a few sites to 20-25 kts
before 00Z, then become generally 5 kts or less overnight. East
northeast winds increase after 12Z Saturday, with more northerly
flow possible at KCLE and KERI, even KYNG, as a lake breeze
pushes inland near the end of the period.

Outlook...VFR is then expected to persist through Monday. Non-
VFR is possible with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into the
middle of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated northeasterly winds 15-18 knots will allow for wave heights
of 3-6 feet to persist across the central basin through late this
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory from The Islands to Geneva-on-the-
Lake and a Beach Hazards Statement from Erie County OH east to Lake
County remain in effect through late this afternoon. As high
pressure moves directly over Lake Erie tonight, easterly winds
diminish to 10 knots or less and wave heights subside to 2 feet or
less. Favorable conditions for waterspouts will continue through
tonight, primarily focused across the central basin. High pressure
persists over the eastern Great Lakes through early next week
allowing for tranquil marine conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ009>012.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ144>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...03
MARINE...13