190
FXUS61 KCLE 121129
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
729 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface ridge builds from the northeast today into Monday and will
keep a strong low pressure system off the East Coast. A cold front
will cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will
build into the Great Lakes region for Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The area is dry and mostly clear this morning with just some clouds,
associated with a weakening trough, over western Lake Erie and into
adjacent portions of North Central Ohio around Sandusky. This
boundary will continue west early this morning and keep weakening as
any supportive energy aloft will remain well to the east. A surface
ridge will begin building in from the northeast today. A wedge of
moisture may enter ahead of this feature this afternoon and bring
some clouds, especially to the eastern half of the area. However,
the ridge will ultimately keep the large low pressure system off the
East Coast and drier air will advect from the northeast tonight into
Monday to clear out clouds and keep the area dry. With dry
conditions and more sun than clouds, expect temperatures to rise
each day with a mix of 60s and 70s today and widespread 70s on
Monday. Portions of Northwest Ohio that are especially dry with
drought conditions may be quicker to warm and mid-70s on Monday are
likely and could even trend warmer. Sunday night lows will be
seasonable in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue across the region for Monday night into
Tuesday with the surface ridge remaining over the region.
Temperatures on Tuesday may trickle slightly warmer, given
persistent dry conditions. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold
front will quickly move across the area. Overall, the frontal
passage continues to appear dry with limited moisture in the region.
However, the cold front will be effective in ushering in a cooler,
Canadian high pressure system. High temperatures on Wednesday may be
achieved early in the morning, around Midnight, and remain in the
50s during the daytime hours with cold advective flow battling the
diurnal cycle. Wednesday night will be fairly cool with temperatures
in the 30s and there will be some Frost/Freeze concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday and Friday will remain dry with cool high pressure across
the region. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Thursday
and rebound to near normal on Friday. Thursday night will continue
to have the potential for Frost/Freeze concerns with temperatures in
the 30s for most. For Friday night and into the weekend, a low
pressure system will target the Great Lakes region. A warm front
will press through the local area on Friday night into Saturday and
bring the potential for some rain showers. Temperatures on Saturday
will get a considerable bump into the 60s and 70s with the area in
the warm sector of the system. The associated cold front with the
low pressure system will move through the region and bring increased
rain chances Saturday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this morning with primarily VFR
to persist through the TAF period. IFR vsbys/ceilings from fog
at TOL should gradually erode to VFR over the next 1 to 2 hours.
Otherwise, anticipate the MVFR ceilings east of the region
across PA will scatter out by mid-morning as they move west into
the area. Some light, isolated rain showers may briefly
accompany this area of clouds, but not expecting any non-VFR
vsbys.

Winds will gradually favor an easterly direction later this
morning and afternoon, 7 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are favored through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
East to east-northeast flow will develop across Lake Erie late
this evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, though it appears
that the greatest chance for waves greater than 4 feet will be
in the open waters, with the nearshore areas generally ranging
in the 2 to 4-foot range. Marine headlines are not necessary at
this time, though may need to re-evaluate if winds favor a more
northeast direction. Otherwise, the next potential for Small
Craft conditions to develop across Lake Erie will be Tuesday
night through Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through the area,
ushering in northerly flow of 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn