688
FXUS61 KCLE 082350
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
750 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms late
Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night with a slight risk for severe weather.

2) High pressure will return for the end of the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure that is over the region today will push eastward
tonight. An upper level trough will move into the Upper Great
Lakes region on Wednesday. A cold front will push through the
Great Lakes and into the Upper Ohio Valley late Wednesday.
Surface dewpoints will climb into the lower 70s by Wednesday
afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s
on Wednesday. 0-6km shear will increase to 40 to 45 knots and modest
instability will develop of 1000-2000 J/kg ahead of the cold front
late Wednesday. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
storms ahead of the cold front with the main threat being isolated
damaging wind gusts. PW values will increase to around 2 inches
which will support heavy downpours and localized heavy rainfall
possible. The time window for possible severe weather will be
between 4 pm and 10 pm. The cold front will slow down as it moves
into central Ohio Wednesday night. Another weak area of low pressure
will ride along the frontal boundary late Wednesday night into
Thursday with another round of rain likely, especially for areas
south of Highway 30. The front and rain chances will finally clear
out of the area by Thursday evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will build in over the Great Lakes and the Upper
Ohio Valley Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be in
the middle to upper 70s on Friday and lower to middle 80s by
Saturday. A weak cold front will try to move through the Great
Lakes region late Sunday but stall out just north of our area.
Warm and humid weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The main message for aviation weather will be VFR conditions
until 21z Wednesday at most TAFs for this update. South to
southwest of 5 to 10 knots through 15z Wednesday. Southwest
winds will increase slightly for MFD, CLE, CAK, and ERI late
Wednesday morning and midday between 10 to 15 knots with gusts
around 20 knots by 18z. Sustained southwest to west of 12 to 15
knots with gusts up to 25 knots from 18z Wednesday to 00z
Thursday.

Convection is expected to near and around all taf sites with a
tempo group for TSRA start around 20z for TAF sites
KTOL...KCLE...KCAK and ERI. Will insert PROB30 group for TSRA
after 22z Wed for TAF sites away from the lake...KFDY...KMFD AND
KYNG. MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected all TAF sites
around 00z Thursday due visibility restrictions in rain/mist and
lowered ceilings.

Outlook...Storms will diminish from north to south from 06z to
12z Thursday. MVFR condition to lowered ceiling will lift
Wednesday night to Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
There will be a brief window for a lake breeze this afternoon
with a east-northeast wind 5 to 10 knots and a light chop of
waves around a foot. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots tonight, becoming west-southwesterly ahead of a cold
front on Wednesday 15 to 20 kts. Marine zones offshore of
Cleveland and eastward will see wave of 3 to 4 feet. A Small
Craft Advisory may be needed for Wednesday. A broken line of
storms are expected ahead of the cold front late Wednesday.
Winds northwesterly 10 to 15 knots are expected in the wake of
the cold front Wednesday night through Thursday night with wave
heights 1 to 3 feet. High pressure will build over the lake on
Friday with light northeast winds 5 to 10 knots and waves of 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...77