310
FXUS61 KCLE 171405
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1005 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system centered over the region will move a cold
front east across the area today. High pressure will build south
across the area on Sunday, persisting through Tuesday. Another
low pressure will move east out of the Central U.S., impacting
the area midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system will continue
to wobble east-northeast across the Great Lakes region into
southern Ontario and Quebec today. This is allowing a cold
front to sweep eastward across our CWA. As of 10 AM EDT, the
surface cold front was located just east of Lorain and Marion.
The front will continue moving eastward and is expected to exit
the rest of our CWA by this early afternoon. Scattered multicell
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
front, amidst moderate to strong effective bulk shear and weak
diurnal destabilization of the warm/relatively-moist sector
boundary layer. Given the strong vertical wind shear, but weak
instability, some storms may produce strong straight-line
convective wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. The potential for
severe convective weather remains very low due to expected weak
instability. Behind the cold front, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible due to self-destructive sunshine
(i.e. thermals reaching their CCL`s and releasing appreciable
surface-based CAPE in the process) through this early evening
as a shortwave trough approaches from the western Great Lakes
and notably colder air aloft overspreads our region.

The more notable impact of the low pressure system and cold
front passage will be the gusty winds across the area today. A
decent gradient over the area will allow for southerly winds of
15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this morning. Behind the cold
front, winds will become westerly and increase to be sustained
at 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph (possibly a tad higher
across western counties). These gusty winds coupled with cooling
temperatures will result in a blustery Saturday across the area
with highs only climbing into the low to mid 60s with the
warmest temperatures isolated to the far southeastern counties.

A few lingering light showers are possible tonight across NW PA
as a lingering surface trough persist. Not expecting much in
terms of coverage given the drier airmass pushing south with a
Canadian high pressure. By Sunday, high pressure will become
dominant, allowing for conditions to dry out across the entire
area. Winds should steadily weaken late Saturday night into
Sunday, with west-northwest winds of 10-15 mph, gusting up to 20
mph possible by Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will be
much cooler than recent nights with temperatures falling into
the low to mid 50s. Highs on Sunday will be a tad warmer,
climbing into the mid to upper 60s with the warmest temperatures
along and west of I71.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Finally will get out of the dominant troughing over the eastern CWA
with the eventual departure of the upper level low to the New
England coast. This will be replaced by weak ridging aloft while the
next low pressure system gets organized over the central plains
region. High pressure influences from a center well north of the
area over Hudson Bay in Canada will also find its way into the
southern Great Lakes with a dry forecast through Sunday night, but
this will serve to continue the cold northerly surface flow into
the region. Back to the central plains region low pressure system,
this will make eastward progress with a leading warm front towards
the Ohio Valley. Large swath of low/mid level isentropic ascent
ahead of the warm front brings POPs back into the fold for Tuesday
from the southwest, heading into a wetter period in the long term
portion of the forecast as this system moves into our area. Look for
temperatures to be around 10 degrees or so below normal in the short
term, a trend that will persist for a few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure system moves eastward into southern Ohio midweek
pushing moisture further north into the CWA for Tuesday night
onward. Upper level low deepens over Lake Erie on Thursday into
Thursday, and with the main forcing from the surface system now
further east, general surface troughing and cold air advection
showers will control the pattern heading into the end of the work
week. Thursday will be the coolest day with most locations not
getting out of the 50s for high temperatures. Temperatures will
slowly modify towards the weekend, but will keep carrying lower end
POPs Friday in the cold pool aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist across all
terminals through at least 00Z. After 00Z Sunday, MVFR height
cloud decks will gradually push over the area, resulting in all
terminals diminishing to MVFR by the end of this TAF period.
There is an isolated chance for some light showers and maybe a
rumble of thunder, but confidence in location and timing was
very low so opted to not mention in any TAFs. In any showers
that develop, conditions may briefly diminish to MVFR, but not
expecting any notable impacts to terminals.

The primary aviation concern through this period will be strong,
gusty winds at all terminals. Ahead of the cold front this
morning, winds from the south-southwest will be sustained at
10-15 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots by late morning. Behind the
cold front, winds will shift to become more westerly at 15-20
knots, gusting up to 25-30 knots. Near the end of the period,
winds will remain from the west and weaken to 5-10 knots with
gusts of 15-20 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across the eastern
half of the area on Sunday. Mainly VFR is expected Monday and
Tuesday. Non-VFR is likely to return on Wednesday in widespread
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
After a cold front passes west to east across Lake Erie this
morning, southwest winds 15-25kts become westerly 20-25kts and wave
heights becoming 3-6ft over most of the nearshore and open waters.
Westerly winds become northwesterly Sunday, easing to 10-15kts and
wave heights down to 1-3ft. Onshore winds and wave heights 1-3ft
continues through Monday, turning northeasterly Monday night through
Tuesday 10-20kts and wave heights increasing again to 2-4ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146-147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26