395
FXUS61 KCLE 231807
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
207 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will trend towards
seasonal values by Saturday.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday through
Tuesday. Confidence is increasing for a few stronger storms
during this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The upper-level trough responsible for the cooler airmass over
the region will gradually exit east into New England today as a
large upper ridge begins to expand east into the Midwest and
Great Lakes into Saturday. Mainly dry and seasonable weather
will continue as surface high pressure remains across the area.
A few showers or storms are possible across far Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon as a weak
shortwave moves east through the Lower Great Lakes, aided by a
developing lake breeze.

Temperatures will gradually warm in the mid to upper 70s today,
increasing into the low to mid-80s by Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Confidence is increasing for a few stronger storms beginning
late Sunday into Tuesday as several potent shortwaves traverse
the base of a strong upper-level trough across Hudson Bay.

There will be a couple of periods to watch for developing
storms, the first of which appears to be Sunday night into
Monday as a leading shortwave enters the Lower Great Lakes,
though confidence is a bit lower given the more mesoscale
dynamics at play. Slightly higher confidence exists for a more
widespread strong thunderstorm potential in the Monday night
into Tuesday timeframe with convection supported by the passage
of a potent mid and upper-level trough. Given the favorable
northwesterly shear and anticipated linear storm mode, if any
storms were to become strong to severe, damaging wind gusts
appear to be the primary hazard. Will continue to monitor the
threat over the next couple of forecast iterations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected through TAF period. A
scattered to broken deck of clouds at 4-6kft have developed across
the region and should dissipate by 00Z this evening. Winds are
currently light and predominately out of the north at less than 5
knots. A lake breeze is expected to impact KCLE and KERI this
afternoon, though winds will only increase to 5-10 knots. Overnight
winds will become light and variable until tomorrow morning where
they will be predominately out of the east at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure today brings light onshore winds with wave heights
1ft or less. Winds become offshore tonight, and then
northeasterly Friday with wave heights greatest in the central
basin at around 1ft. Winds westerly 5-10kts Saturday with wave
heights continuing to remain a foot or less. Winds become
southwest Sunday and Monday with wave heights 1-2ft east of
Cleveland and around 1ft west towards the islands.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...23
MARINE...26