547
FXUS61 KCLE 222332
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
732 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge exits toward the Atlantic seaboard from
New England to the Mid-Atlantic states through Saturday, which
will allow a diffuse warm front to sweep northward through our
region tonight through Saturday morning. During Saturday night
through Sunday morning, a cold front is still expected to sweep
eastward through our region. Behind the cold front, a trough
lingers over the Lake Erie region and Upper Ohio Valley through
at least Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aloft, a ridge continues to crest E`ward over our CWA through
this evening and then exits E`ward on Saturday as a trough
begins to overspread our region from the Upper Midwest. At the
surface, the ridge continues to exit toward the Atlantic
seaboard from New England to the Mid-Atlantic states through
Saturday, which will allow a diffuse warm front to sweep N`ward
through our region tonight through Saturday morning. This front
will usher-in a somewhat warmer and more-humid air mass
originating over the southern Gulf Stream. Intervals of clear
sky and weak surface winds should allow tonight`s lows to reach
mainly the upper 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak Saturday. The
aforementioned sky and wind conditions, nocturnal cooling, and
sufficient low-level moisture should allow patchy radiation fog
and especially river valley steam fog to form overnight tonight,
especially around daybreak. Any fog will likely dissipate by
mid-morning with the onset of diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer. On Saturday, sufficient daytime heating of land
and overlying surface air surrounding ~74F Lake Erie and a
relatively-weak synoptic MSLP gradient should allow a lake
breeze to affect locations up to several miles inland from Lake
Erie in northeastern Cuyahoga County through Erie County, PA
during the late morning through early evening hours. Late
afternoon highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 80`s as
peeks of sunshine and daytime heating are complemented by the
aforementioned low-level WAA. Primarily fair weather is
expected through sunset Saturday evening as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, weak to moderate
diurnal destabilization of the moist boundary layer may allow
low-level convergence and associated ascent along the lake
breeze front to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in far-
NE OH and NW PA during the late afternoon through early evening
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cyclonic SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft is expected over our CWA
during this period as the axis of the above-mentioned trough
aloft approaches slowly from the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes. At the surface, a cold front sweeps E`ward through
northern OH and NW PA Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Behind the cold front, a trough lingers over our region due, in
part to mid/upper-level divergence and associated MSLP falls
preceding the trough axis aloft. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected along the cold front as low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the front, including the upper-
reaches of the front, release weak to moderate CAPE, including
elevated CAPE. Given the expected progression/evolution of the
front, the greatest potential for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the daylight hours of Sunday exists
roughly along and east of I-71. Overnight lows should reach
mainly the upper 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak Sunday. Weak
low-level CAA behind the front and intervals of sunshine should
allow Sunday`s late afternoon highs to reach the mid 70`s to
lower 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aloft, cyclonic SW`erly to W`erly flow through Tuesday morning
should become NW`erly Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night
as the trough axis drifts from the western Great Lakes toward
the northeast United States. At the surface, a lake-aggregate
thermal trough is expected to develop over the eastern Great
Lakes and vicinity, including our CWA, as an unusually-cold air
mass associated with the trough aloft becomes entrenched over
the region, 850 mb temperatures cool from near 11C to near 5C
over Lake Erie and our area, and the lakes become much warmer
relative to overlying air. A mainly W`erly to NW`erly mean low-
level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of ~23C
Lake Erie and the development of sizable lake-induced
instability are expected to allow lake-effect rain showers,
heavy at times, to develop Sunday night and then persist through
Tuesday night. These showers are expected to be most-persistent
across NE OH and NW PA in our CWA, but should impact portions
of north-central OH at times, especially Monday night through
Tuesday night, when the mean low-level flow should trend
NW`erly. Primarily fair weather is expected outside lake-effect
rain. Note: on Monday, a shortwave trough and attendant surface
trough axis should sweep E`ward across our region and allow
more-numerous rain showers to impact NW PA and much of northern
OH as low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface
trough axis release at least weak boundary layer CAPE stemming
from daytime warming. Enough instability may be released to
trigger a few thunderstorms and there may also be enough lake-
induced CAPE in the primary electrical charge separation zone
for a few lake- effect thunderstorms to also occur.

Overnight lows should reach mainly the 50`s to lower 60`s
around daybreak Monday and then mainly the mid 40`s to mid 50`s
around daybreak on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Near-
record cold low temperatures are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings, especially in NW OH. Despite peeks of sunshine, late
afternoon highs are expected to reach only the upper 60`s to
lower 70`s on Monday and the mid 60`s to lower 70`s on Tuesday
amidst the low-level CAA regime.

On Wednesday, a narrow ridge at the surface and aloft should
build E`ward across our region and then exit E`ward Wednesday
night. A lowering/stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanying
the ridge should contribute to a decrease in lake-induced
instability and allow lingering lake-effect rain showers over
and generally southeast of Lake Erie to end by early afternoon.
Otherwise fair weather is expected through Wednesday night. Late
afternoon highs should reach the upper 60`s to mid 70`s via
intervals of sunshine, yet weakening net low-level CAA. On
Wednesday night, intervals of clear sky and weak surface winds
should contribute to lows reaching mainly the mid 40`s to mid
50`s around daybreak Thursday.

On Thursday through Friday, another deep trough aloft should
overspread the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley from the
western Great Lakes. At the surface, the attendant cold front
should sweep E`ward through our region sometime on Thursday and
be followed by another lake-aggregate thermal trough through
Friday over/near Lake Erie, including our CWA. Low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the front should trigger
sufficient potential instability in the lowest 1 km AGL to
trigger scattered rain showers. Behind the front, a
sufficiently-cold/moist NW`erly to N`erly mean low-level flow
should be accompanied by another round of lake-effect rain
showers over/downwind of Lake Erie Thursday night into Friday.

Weak low-level WAA and peeks of sunshine ahead of the cold front
should allow daytime highs to reach the 70`s on Thursday. Behind
the front, lows should reach mainly the upper 40`s to near 60F
around daybreak Friday and be followed by highs only in the
upper 60`s to mid 70`s late Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Cloud cover has scattered out this evening as high pressure
gradually exits to the east tonight. Still can`t rule out some
brief MVFR visibilities across central Ohio terminals overnight
tonight and maintained MVFR vsby TEMPO groups at KFDY and KMFD.

Mainly dry weather is expected through the TAF period before a
cold front approaches the region from the west late Saturday
afternoon. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day on
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms approaching western
terminals late in the TAF period (22Z/Sat onward). Some hi-res
models have showers/thunderstorms entering Northwest Ohio after
00Z/Sun. Because of this, opted to leave any SHRA/TSRA mention
associated with the cold front out of the KTOL/KFDY TAF with
this forecast package.

Light and variable winds overnight tonight will turn
southwesterly Saturday morning while increasing to 8-12 knots
by Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon. Non-VFR possible in lake
effect rain showers downwind of Lake Erie Sunday through Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift offshore of the New England coast late
tonight and Saturday, causing winds to shift to SW and increase
to 5-10 knots by Saturday afternoon. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday night into Sunday morning, veering winds to W
while gradually increasing to 10-15 knots by late Sunday. This
will build wave heights to 1 to 3 feet. A secondary cold front
will move across the lake Sunday night, and this will set up a
period of very active Fall-like marine conditions as WNW winds
increase to 15-25 knots through the day Monday then NW at 15-25
knots behind another cold front Monday night. This will build 3
to 6 foot waves, with the highest in the central and eastern
basins. Rip current risk will almost certainly be high with such
conditions, so Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard
statements will likely be needed Sunday night through at least
Tuesday. Winds will gradually diminish Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Along with the gusty winds and high waves will come
an elevated risk for waterspouts, especially Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...13
MARINE...Garuckas