034
FXUS61 KCLE 050422
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1122 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region into Friday. Another
cold front will through the area on Sunday. High pressure will
build in late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front from this morning has cleared the area to the east
and high pressure will begin to build in from the west. Ahead of the
high, winds will stay gusty, around 20-25 mph, but will start to
taper off as the high builds in. Additionally, cloud cover will
start to clear for the majority of the region with the influx of
drier low level moisture. There are a few spots along and downwind
of the snowbelt that may have some prolonged cloud coverage due to
northwesterly flow across the lake and, for areas in Pennsylvania
primarily, a connection from Lake Huron. With high pressure moving
in, it will bring in much colder temperatures this evening and
overnight tonight. Locations across the CWA have struggled to warm
even after clearing and have been around 20-25F throughout the day
with wind chills in the low teens to single digits. Temperatures
will continue to drop as the high pressure moves overhead overnight
tonight with efficient radiational cooling. Overnight lows tonight
will be down into the single digits for much of the region with
locations near the lakeshore staying around 10F. Winds will be light
with the high overhead, but with any light wind, wind chills will
drop down below 5F with locations in the I-75 corridor and higher
elevations being near zero or just below. There is potential that
some locations may reach record low temperatures tonight.

High pressure will drift off to the east by Friday morning and there
will be some southerly flow across the region that will warm
temperatures up into upper 20s to low 30s for daytime highs with
mostly sunny skies. Friday night lows will be warmer than the
previous night, but still chilly with lows down into the upper teens
to low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave will be moving through the region on Saturday that
could bring a chance for scattered snow showers across the
region along a surface cold front. Precipitation chances will be
on the low end for the majority of the CWA, though there will
be potential for lake effect snow showers throughout the day and
into early Sunday. Accumulation will be minimal across the
snowbelt with totals around an inch or less. Ahead of the cold
front, temperatures will be able to warm up into the mid 30s,
which will bring a chance for a rain/snow mix during the
afternoon into the early evening. Colder air will arrive after
frontal passage and any precipitation that falls will be in the
form of snow. On Sunday, there will be a stronger shortwave
moving through the region that will have a better shot at
widespread snow showers across the region, though areas within
the primary and secondary snowbelts will have the better chance
of some light accumulations. There will be some northwesterly
flow behind this feature that could bring scattered lake effect
snow showers to northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania
through late Sunday night. Overnight lows for Sunday night will
be back down into the mid to low teens with some isolated spots
of single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A similar pattern will continue through the long term as the upper
level ridge across the southwestern CONUS and upper level
troughing over the Hudson Bay persists. High pressure will
build in briefly on Monday behind the cold front from the
weekend with dry weather expected to start the week. Models have
shown a series of shortwaves moving through the region starting
Tuesday through the middle of the week. There is less agreement
for the system on Tuesday, but a majority of the long range
models have a stronger clipper system moving through on
Wednesday that could bring a shot for light snow accumulation
across the region. Temperatures in the long term will continue
to be below average with the current pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure will maintain influence over the region through
the TAF period, resulting in widespread VFR conditions through
06Z Saturday. Any lingering low-end VFR ceilings are expected
to lift north over Lake Erie early this morning. A weak
shortwave moving east across the region may deliver some
3500-4000 ft AGL ceilings to portions of the area (primarily
KMFD) late this morning through this afternoon, but any non-VFR
ceilings should largely remain to the south of the local area.
Winds will generally be light and variable tonight before
becoming south/southwest and increasing to about 10 knots by
late morning.

Outlook...Periodic snow and/or rain showers with non-VFR are
expected Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect for U.S. nearshore waters:
- Until 5 PM EST today from Avon Point, OH to Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
- Until 7 PM today from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Ripley, NY

A high pressure ridge affects Lake Erie through Friday night as the
embedded high pressure center moves from near the Upper MS Valley to
Atlantic waters near Nova Scotia. NW`erly winds around 10 to 20
knots this afternoon become variable in direction and ease to around
5 to 10 knots this evening. Accordingly, waves as large as 3 to 6
feet this afternoon subside to 3 feet or less by 7 PM EST this
evening and to 2 feet or less by midnight tonight. During the
predawn hours of Friday morning through daybreak Saturday, winds are
expected to become primarily S`erly to SW`erly and freshen gradually
to around 15 to 25 knots as the aforementioned ridge exits slowly
E`ward and interacts with a trough along a cold front that will
approach from the north-central U.S. and eventually the western
Great Lakes. The S`erly to SW`erly winds should trend strongest over
the open U.S. waters. Waves should build gradually to as large as 3
to 7 feet and trend largest in open U.S. waters given forecast
fetch. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

On Saturday, the cold front will sweep generally SE`ward across Lake
Erie. The front`s passage will cause S`erly to SW`erly winds around
15 to 25 knots to veer to W`erly to NW`erly and ease to around 5 to
15 knots as a ridge attempts to build from the north-central U.S.
Waves as large as 3 to 7 feet ahead of the front will subside
gradually to 3 feet or less by midnight Sunday morning, behind the
front. On Sunday, the front should waver in a north-south manner in
the Lake Erie region as a low wobbles ENE`ward from the east-central
Great Plains to the northeast U.S. and strengthens slightly.
Primarily W`erly to N`erly winds should freshen gradually from
around 5 to 15 knots to as strong as 15 to 25 knots. However, winds
may shift to S`erly to SW`erly for a time over at least southern
portions of the lake, but this will depend on the progression of the
front. Waves should be 3 feet or less through Sunday afternoon and
then build to as large as 4 to 6 feet Sunday evening, which would
prompt another Small Craft Advisory.

On Monday, a ridge should build from the Upper MS Valley through
about midday. In response, NW`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots
should veer to N`erly to NE`erly and ease gradually to 5 to 10
knots. This ridge should then exit generally E`ward during the rest
of Monday and allow a warm front to sweep NE`ward across Lake Erie.
Accordingly, N`erly to NE`erly winds will veer to S`erly to SW`erly
and freshen gradually to around 10 to 20 knots. Based on the wind
and fetch forecast, waves as large as 4 to 6 feet Monday morning,
should subside to 3 feet or less for Monday afternoon and evening.

On Tuesday, S`erly to SW`erly winds should freshen further to around
20 to 30 knots as the ridge continues to exit gradually E`ward, a
deepening low moves generally E`ward across the northern Great Lakes
and vicinity, the low`s trailing cold front approaches Lake Erie
from the northwest, and the ridge and low interact with one another.
Waves should build to as large as 5 to 10 feet, with the largest
waves expected in open U.S. waters east of The Islands. Will
continue to monitor this part of the forecast for the need of a
Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record cold low temperatures are expected in portions of our
region tomorrow morning, especially farther inland from Lake
Erie. Here are the record cold low temperatures for December
5th:

Toledo: -2F (1976)
Mansfield: 1F (1957)
Cleveland: 2F (1871)
Akron: 7F (1991)
Youngstown: 9F (1991)
Erie, PA: -2F (1886)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Jaszka
CLIMATE...77