560
FXUS61 KCLE 091723
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1223 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving east of the area today brings a sharply
colder airmass to the region with off and on snow from tonight
through Tuesday. Another frontal system moves through Wednesday,
followed by high pressure for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Update...

Most of our forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. However, cooled our forecast this morning
in western Lucas County into Wood and northern Hancock Counties
based on latest observed trends and HRRR forecast guidance. As a
surface low continues wobbling NE`ward across southern OH and
toward NW PA the rest of this morning, the low pressure system`s
warm conveyor belt, including TROWAL, will continue to undergo
moist isentropic ascent. Frontogenetical convergence/moist
ascent will also occur within the TROWAL. These lifting
mechanisms will continue to release at least weak potential
instability and generate periods of precip, heavy at times.
Expect the wet-bulb effect, a somewhat cooler tropospheric
column, and CAA at the surface and aloft to allow snow to be the
predominant surface precip type this morning in western and
central Lucas County into portions of Wood and northern Hancock
Counties. Toledo Express Airport already reported 1" of fresh
snow accumulation at 7 AM EST this morning and expect another
coating to 2" of wet snow accumulation the rest of this morning
in the aforementioned areas, but especially western and central
Lucas County. A somewhat warmer tropospheric column elsewhere
in our CWA will allow rain to be the predominant surface precip
type the rest of this morning. Please see discussion below for
additional details.

Previous Discussion from 3:06 AM EST...

Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will continue an eastward
track through southern Ohio and into western Pennsylvania while an
upper level closed low is diving southward into the western Great
Lakes. Stout cold air advection will be taking place throughout the
CWA once the surface low is sufficiently east of it basically
occurring in earnest after 18Z today. It is important to note the
colder airmass coming into the region, source from the northern
Canadian Prairies, will dive southward west of the Great LAkes for
the most part, unmodified by the lakes themselves. This is a reason
the colder airmass should do an efficient job of maintaining its
colder characteristics this early in the season. Periodic
precipitation overspreads the area today with multiple different
forcing aspects from mid level waves,PVA, a lingering surface
trough, and areas of low level frontogenesis. While areas of
northwest Ohio could see wet snow mixing in with the rain later this
morning, should be all rain this afternoon, then transitioning to
snow tonight. This will largely be synoptically forced
precipitation, with some lake enhancement fro northerly low level
flow, and will be the first main period for snow accumulations. As
temperatures fall, before daylight, could see 1-3 inches in places
across the CWA. However, temperatures will climb into the mid 30s
away from LAke Erie, and the upper 30s adjacent to the lake for
Monday. This will make additional accumulating snow during this
period pretty hard to come by, especially since multiple operational
models continue to indicate periodic low level dry air intrusions.
While 6 hour POPs will remain fairly high, QPF will be lower during
the Monday period, and temperatures above freezing will make
accumulations difficult to achieve.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low level/surface flow turns northwesterly Monday night to westerly
by Tuesday. This becomes more of a lake effect event at this point,
and snowfall returns to the typical snowbelt areas. Highest amounts
will become focused over NW PA and far NE OH for Monday night, and
then amounts wane Tuesday with slightly milder temperatures into the
afternoon hours. By Tuesday night, flows off the lake now west
southwesterly, and the bulk of the precipitation now hits far NW PA
and in the form of showers. High pressure building in from the south
forces these wind direction changes, and Wednesday temperatures now
into the low to mid 40s. Another weak cold front briefly reinforces
the cooler air heading into the long term portion of the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Finally get into some 500mb height recoveries for the end of the
week and into the weekend with upper level ridging building in by
Saturday. 850mb temperatures also rebound accordingly, and expect to
be in the above normal range for temperatures by the end of the
weekend. With that, another cold front will be approaching by the
end of the weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Non-VFR conditions are expected to persist for much of the
period across all terminals. Currently, a mix bag of conditions
are being observed ranging from LIFR to VFR, some sites with
snow and other rain, and ceilings ranging from OVC at 200 feet
up to OVC at 6kft. This forecast is tricky as a low pressure
system tracks east across the area today and much colder air
ushers in behind it but here is the thinking about conditions
with this update.

Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to persist
through part of tonight into early Monday morning for western
terminals before ceilings lift a bit and conditions should
rebound to MVFR. Elsewhere, increasing confidence in lake effect
snow may result in prolonged IFR/LIFR conditions at terminals
along and east of I71. Wind direction will be critical as that
will drive the direction of the lake effect snow bands expected
to develop, but given a period of northerly winds, even KMFD and
KCAK may be impacted. The terminals with the highest confidence
in maintaining diminished conditions due to snow are KCLE,
KYNG, and KERI. At these terminals, periods of heavy snow may
reduce visibilities to less than 1SM at times, however there
remains uncertainty in where these bands will develop so opted
to handle the worsening conditions with a PROB30. This lake
effect potential will persist through the end of the period with
the strongest bands slowly shifting east throughout Monday.

Winds across the area are currently reflective of circling
around the low pressure center with north-northwesterly winds
on the backside of the low and northeasterly to even some
southerly winds on the front end. As the greatest gradient moves
east with this low, expected northwest winds of 10-15 knots to
occasionally gust up to 20-25 knots. The strongest winds are
expected to be isolated to the lakeshore, potentially impacting
KCLE and KERI. Expect a brief lull in wind speeds late
tonight/early Monday before increasing again Monday morning. All
winds will become sustained from the north-northwest at 10-15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected through Monday with rain and snow
showers as a low pressure system moves east. Possible prolonged
non-VFR conditions in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania
with lake effect showers through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
A period a prolonged unsettled conditions across Lake Erie starts
today as a low pressure system enters the Ohio Valley from the west
and moves east-northeastward through early next week. Currently,
there are east to northeasterly winds at 10-15 knots across the
lake. Winds will begin to increase to 20-25 knots from west to
east throughout the day today. As the low pressure system moves
south of the lake, winds will shift to become more northerly and
will predominantly be out of the north through late Monday. The
Small Craft Advisory begins for the zones west of the Islands
early this morning and will include every nearshore zone by
10AM. Waves will build to around 5-8 feet on Sunday with waves
occasionally around 10 feet.

There will be slight lull in the winds across the eastern and
western nearshore zones late Monday as the low moves off to the
east. A trough will deepen to the north of the region Tuesday with a
ridge building to the south, winds and waves will quickly build
again early Tuesday morning. A low pressure system will bring a warm
front north across the region late Tuesday and early Wednesday and
winds will shift to be out of the southwest and continue to increase
to near gales across the central and eastern basins. Gales may
persist through midday Wednesday but will continue to be near gale
through late Wednesday before beginning to subside. With the
prolonged winds, the Small Craft Advisory will possibly be extended
through late Wednesday. There is potential that a gale warning will
need to be issued, but will need to monitor in future forecasts as
confidence is low currently. Additionally, with the southwesterly
winds, there is potential for low water levels in the western basin
on Tuesday. Will need to monitor this over the next couple of days.
Winds and waves will begin to diminish by the end of the week as
high pressure and a ridge builds into the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Tuesday
     morning for OHZ010>014-020>023-089.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Tuesday
     evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23