Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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572 FXUS61 KCLE 092048 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 307 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge exits toward New England as a warm front approaches from the Lower Mississippi Valley. The warm front will sweep northeastward across our region Sunday morning through early afternoon and then a cold front will sweep eastward through our area Sunday night as a low moves from the north-central United States to southwestern Quebec. Behind the low, a trough lingers over the eastern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley on Monday as a secondary cold front sweeps southeastward through our area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft exits toward New England and the Canadian Maritimes through Sunday as a potent trough aloft moves from the northern and central Great Plains to the western Great Lakes. At the surface, the attendant and occluded low moves NE`ward from the central Great Plains toward the Upper Peninsula of MI and allows a surface trough to overspread our CWA generally from the west. In addition, a warm front is expected to sweep NE`ward through our area late Sunday morning through early afternoon. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the aforementioned ridge will allow fair weather to persist in our region for the time being. Widespread rain, heavy at times, will overspread our region from SW to NE during the wee hours of Sunday morning through the early afternoon as a return flow of very moist air originating over the southern Gulf Stream and Gulf of Mexico undergoes isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and is enhanced by a S`erly to SW`erly LLJ of about 30 to 45 knots. Following the passage of the surface warm front, scattered, lighter, and intermittent rain showers are expected through sunset as weaker moist isentropic ascent precedes the trough axis aloft that will approach from the west. Tonight`s lows are expected to reach the mid 30`s to mid 40`s in NW PA and the 40`s in northern OH. These lows will likely be reached late this evening before readings moderate during the predawn hours of Sunday morning in response to strengthening low-level WAA ahead of the surface warm front. SE`erly downslope surface winds are expected to gust up to 30 mph in far-northern Erie County, PA tonight, especially after midnight. On Sunday, low-level WAA and limited daytime heating via a few peeks of sunshine will allow late afternoon highs to reach the mid 50`s to mid 60`s. Diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger flow just aloft will likely contribute to S`erly to SW`erly surface wind gusts as strong as 25 to 35 mph across our CWA, behind the surface warm front. Aloft, the potent trough moves from the western Great Lakes to southern QC and the northeastern United States Sunday night as a shortwave ridge builds from the Upper Midwest. At the surface, the occluded low is expected to move from the Upper Peninsula of MI to southern QC and allow the trailing cold front to sweep E`ward through our region late Sunday evening through the predawn hours of Monday morning. Weak/moist isentropic ascent ahead of the trough axis aloft and low-level convergence/ascent along the cold front amidst sufficient moisture and potential instability in the lowest 1 km AGL will allow scattered/light rain showers to impact our CWA. Behind the front, a lake-induced thermal surface trough is expected to linger over the relatively-warm Great Lakes as a surface ridge attempts to build from the north-central United States. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge aloft is expected to promote mainly fair weather behind the cold front. However, a W`erly mean low-level flow may be cold and moist enough over and downwind of ~14C Lake Erie to allow light lake-effect rain showers to impact the primary snow belt of NE OH/NW PA and vicinity toward daybreak Monday morning. Rainfall through the near-term is still expected to total 0.50" to 1.00". Low-level CAA behind the cold front will contribute to lows reaching the 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak Monday. Note: Steepening low-level lapse rates amidst winds and CAA increasing with height in the low-level atmospheric column will allow mechanical mixing of the boundary layer to tap into stronger flow just aloft and generate W`erly surface wind gusts as strong as 25 to 35 mph behind the cold front. The strongest gusts are still expected along the lakeshore from downtown Cleveland through Erie County, PA due in part to less friction over the relatively-smooth lake surface. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Scattered lake effect rain showers may persist across NE OH and NW PA through the daytime hours Monday, although 850mb temperatures will be extremely marginal (2 to 5C) Monday morning and early afternoon so showers may be hit and miss and/or it could be more of a lake effect cloud scenario. Opted for chance PoPs (30 to 50 percent) through Monday afternoon, but there`s a chance that Monday remains dry for most snowbelt locations. It will be quite breezy Monday with wind gusts to 25 to 30 mph possible areawide during peak diurnal mixing Monday afternoon and along the lakeshore of NE OH and NW PA Monday morning through Monday evening. A secondary cold front will push southeast across the local area Monday night into early Tuesday morning and there will likely be a shot of cooler 850mb temps along and just behind the front. With that being said, there`s still some uncertainty in exactly how cold 850 mb temps get Monday night and how long the coldest temps aloft persist, which will ultimately affect lake-enhanced precipitation chances. There`s high confidence that 850mb temps fall to 0 to -3C Monday night, but would like to see slightly cooler temperatures to maximize lake-induced instability and precipitation efficiency. There`s also the possibility of the best forcing (and cooler temps aloft) remaining to the northeast of the CWA which could throw a wrench into the precipitation forecast. Regardless, there`s a decent chance of at least scattered lake-enhanced rain showers across NE OH/NW PA with the frontal passage, hence likely PoPs from roughly 00Z to 06Z Tuesday. Surface high pressure and an upper ridge quickly follow the cold front so any precip will taper off by Tuesday morning with dry weather persisting through the remainder of the short term period. The air mass will only modify slightly Monday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s likely. Cold air advection behind the cold front Monday night will allow overnight lows to fall into the mid to upper 30s. Cooler temperatures continue into Tuesday; highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and minimum temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s in higher elevations and inland locations east of I- 71 and lower 30s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper ridge axis/surface warm front will cross the area Wednesday as an upper-level trough advances east across the Plains. The trough and its associated cold front will cross the region at some point Wednesday night into Thursday, although there`s still significant model spread in the timing and strength of the system. Maintained broad likely PoPs (around 60 percent) Wednesday night into Thursday, but refinements are likely as confidence in the synoptic pattern increases. The highest PoPs will be associated with the frontal/upper trough passage. Warm air advection will produce high temps in the 50s and lower 60s Wednesday. Behind this system, a ridge will begin to build into the eastern United States, although still a lot to iron out with the placement of the associated surface high. Either way, drier weather and above average temperatures are favored Friday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Aloft, a ridge builds E`ward across our region through ~00Z/Sun. Thereafter, the ridge begins to exit E`ward and a trough approaches from the northern and central Great Plains through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, the ridge exits slowly E`ward as a warm front approaches our region from the Lower MS Valley and vicinity. This warm front is expected to begin to sweep NE`ward across our region after ~12Z/Sun and near KERI and vicinity by 18Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds veer from SE`erly to S`erly with the passage of the warm front and remain around 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots are expected at times, especially at KERI and especially from ~05Z/Sun through 18Z/Sun. Widespread mid/upper-level clouds and associated VFR ceilings accompanying the warm front and preceding the aforementioned trough aloft will lower/thicken into low-level clouds from SW to NE between ~10Z/Sun and 18Z/Sun. The widespread low clouds are expected to yield MVFR to IFR ceilings. Widespread rain, heavy at times, is forecast to overspread our region from SW to NE after ~07Z/Sun. Visibility is expected to vary between VFR and MVFR in precip. Outlook...Periodic rain with non-VFR expected through Monday night. Additional periods of rain with non-VFR are possible this Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. && .MARINE... East winds 6 to 12 knots this afternoon and early evening become southeast and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight before shifting to the south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the lake Sunday night, allowing winds to become westerly/southwesterly and increase to 20 to 30 knots with the highest winds anticipated in the open waters of the eastern half of the lake. Winds are expected to diminish to 15 to 25 knots by Monday morning with a wind shift to the northwest anticipated as a secondary cold front crosses the lake Monday night into early Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will most certainly be needed for the nearshore zones of Lake Erie by no later than Sunday evening, but advisories may begin as early as mid to late Sunday morning if offshore winds in the nearshore zones trend higher than the current forecast (15 to 20 knots). The best opportunity for Small Craft Advisory conditions ahead of the frontal passage will span from roughly the eastern fringe of the Lake Erie Islands to Geneva-on-the- Lake. Small Craft Advisories are expected to persist through Tuesday morning and will also need to keep an eye on potential for low water hazards in the western basin of the lake when west/southwest winds peak late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Flow should become more northeasterly with winds finally diminishing to 10 to 15 knots by Tuesday afternoon. Generally expect quiet marine conditions through the majority of Wednesday before south/southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 knots ahead of the next system Wednesday night into Thursday. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for mid to late week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jaszka NEAR TERM...Jaszka SHORT TERM...Maines LONG TERM...Maines AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Maines