781
FXUS61 KCLE 051126
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
626 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate over the region today. A clipper
system and cold front will move through the area on Sunday.
High pressure will build in late Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main message for this forecast update will be quiet weather
today with high pressure around. Another quick moving clipper
system will move through this weekend with a round of light
snow and another push of colder air.

An Arctic high pressure system is over the region this morning
with most locations away from the lakeshore in the single
digits. Interesting note to share looking at the nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery this morning, it appears that
some ice has formed on Lake Erie near Toledo in the Maumee Bay
and Sandusky Bay. The center of the high pressure will move
towards New England today. There will be a return of a light
southerly flow. There will be a mixture of sun and clouds today
with temperatures struggling to reach freezing, in the upper 20s
to lower 30s.

The overall weather pattern will continue to be a large and
broad upper level trough over the Great Lakes region and much of
the eastern CONUS heading into this weekend. It will not be as
cold tonight with overnight temperatures in the teens to lower
20s. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Great
Lakes region trailing down into the eastern Great Lakes. Ahead
of this front, there will be a slight increase in southwesterly
flow on Saturday. Some light precip in the form of light snow
will develop along and ahead of that trailing cold front across
the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. The best chance for some
light snow on Saturday will be north and east of Cleveland into
the primary Snowbelt and into NWPA. Any snowfall will be light
from a dusting to maybe 1 inch. Temperatures will moderate on
Saturday into the lower and middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The next weather system to impact our region will arrive on
Sunday. A fast moving clipper system and cold front will dive
through the Midwest Saturday night and track into the Upper Ohio
Valley on Sunday. A round of light snow will be expect for all
of northern Ohio and northwest Pennyslvania with 1 to 2 inches
of snowfall possible Sunday. A push of colder air will arrive
behind this clipper system Sunday evening and overnight. There
could be a brief period Sunday evening and night of a little
lake enhancement or lake effect snow for the Snowbelt with an
additional 1 to 2 inches possible. High temperatures on Sunday
will be in the lower to middle 30s with temps slowly falling
later in the day. Another cold high pressure system will build
into the region late Sunday night through Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will be in the middle to upper 20s.
Overnight lows will be in the teens and single digits once
again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A colder than average and active weather pattern will continue
through next week. Temperatures may rebound slightly Tuesday and
Wednesday in the 30s to around 40 degrees. A stronger shortwave
trough will dive through the northern U.S. and Upper Midwest
Tuesday night. This clipper system looks to be stronger as it
moves across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Higher POPs
will return areawide for light to moderate precip in the form or
light snow to a rain/snow mix and then back to snow during the
middle of next week. Too early to mention potential amounts at
this time but it looks very active and wintry for the middle and
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this morning, though a
widespread MVFR deck is beginning to slowly enter the southwest
portion of the area this morning. For this update, included MVFR
ceilings at FDY/MFD as this is the region where confidence is
highest in prevailing MVFR conditions over the next several
hours. Further east, confidence remains low on the progression
and evolution of this MVFR deck, so opted for sct025 mention at
this time.

Winds are generally favoring a south to southeast direction this
morning, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will gradually shift towards the
south to southwest by later this morning and afternoon, 8 to 10
knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered light snow showers on
Saturday. Non-VFR more likely in widespread light snow on
Sunday. Non-VFR possible again in snow showers on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will gradually increase through today, reaching near
20 knots by late tonight into Saturday morning, though given the
marginal winds and offshore flow, have opted against a Small Craft
Advisory at this time. The Small Craft potential becomes more likely
Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front shifts winds towards
the west, 20 to 22 knots. A brief lull in winds is expected for the
first half of Sunday, with Small Craft conditions potentially
returning late Sunday into Monday morning as a secondary cold front
or trough ushers in northwest to north flow of around 20 knots. A
stronger system is expected to impact the region by Tuesday into
Wednesday with southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots. There is also a low
likelihood for winds to reach near-Gale at times with this system.

Outside of marine headlines, the latest Nighttime Microphysics
satellite product suggests that some initial thin ice appears to be
forming along the western basin of Lake Erie near Toledo, as well as
Sandusky Bay with the cold air mass overhead.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record cold low temperatures are expected in portions of our
region this morning, especially farther inland from Lake Erie.
Here are the record cold low temperatures for December 5th:

Toledo: -2F (1976)
Mansfield: 1F (1957)
Cleveland: 2F (1871)
Akron: 7F (1991)
Youngstown: 9F (1991)
Erie, PA: -2F (1886)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn
CLIMATE...