


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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161 FXUS61 KCLE 041150 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 750 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to influence the region today and Saturday. Low pressure will track northeast through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, pulling a cold front south across the area through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level ridge extends across the Upper Midwest today and will build east overhead on Saturday. Much of the area will experience sunny skies for the Independence Day Holiday. A decent spread in temperatures can be expected from west to east with highs near 90 in NW Ohio and 80 in NW Pennsylvania. A concern for a few thunderstorms does develop in NW Ohio by late afternoon and early evening. ML CAPE gradient of 500-1500 J/kg will be over SE Michigan this afternoon. Low level convergence from southwesterly return flow and lake breeze boundaries may be sufficient to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorm activity upstream. This also aligns with an eastward advancing theta-e gradient. Northwesterly flow aloft may direct activity into NW Ohio late this afternoon into this evening and have raised pops to 30-50 percent towards Toledo with decreasing chances south along the I-75 corridor. Several of the CAMs have also trended upward with coverage of showers and thunderstorms in SE Michigan and NW Ohio. Activity is expected to decrease towards sunset. Did continue with a 20 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm eastward across Lake Erie and sneaking into areas downwind of the lake late tonight into Saturday morning as the moisture advection continues eastward. Overall better forcing is likely to be farther north across Lake Huron and into Canada. For Saturday, a lake breeze is likely to develop off eastern Lake Erie and may serve as a focus for a few stray showers or thunderstorms. The 00Z/04 run of the 3km NAM may be a bit overdone with coverage of storms as it indicates dewpoints in the low 70s which are several degrees too high. With that said, surface based CAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg are possible out ahead of an expanding capping inversion that will strengthen over western portions of the area. Have included 20-40 percent pops across the snowbelt areas and south towards Meadville and Warren during the afternoon. The heat continues to expand eastward with portions of the area exceeding 90 degrees and heat index values starting to creep back up into the mid and upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge axis will be overhead at the start of the period then shift to the East Coast. Sunday is expected to be the hottest day as temperatures in most areas reach or exceed 90 degrees and dewpoints are creeping back up. Low pressure will track east across the Upper Great Lakes ahead of a shortwave trough tracking into the region. The pre-frontal trough will reach NW Ohio during the afternoon and could start to see thunderstorms developing. There are some timing differences between the models that will need to be worked out but have chance pops expanding east to about the I-71 corridor during the afternoon. With this boundary settling into the area Sunday night, could see some continued shower and thunderstorm activity overnight. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage on Monday with the slow moving front draped overhead. PW values will be near 2 inches and locally heavy rain will be expected with thunderstorms, especially if training along the boundary occurs. A second and stronger shortwave trough looks to finally push the front south of the area on Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will be overhead behind the front on Tuesday. Conditions should be more comfortable with temperatures dropping back to near normal values and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Most of the area can expect dry conditions with stable air. The pattern is expected to become more active again towards the middle of next week with a broad trough in place across eastern Canada and shortwave energy moving through the Ohio Valley. The shortwaves will be hard to time and adjustments to pops are likely. Overall a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms look likely for mid-week with temperatures hovering near normal. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... High pressure moving through the region will allow for mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Conditions are starting with just some minor high clouds and and residual 5-6 kft clouds in Northeast Ohio. The coverage of these lower 5-6 kft clouds should expand with diurnal heating today. The main weather concern will be the evolution of a storm complex over Wisconsin this morning. The trajectory of this system is southeast and should avoid the airspace. However, additional storm development is starting in Southwest Lower Michigan this morning and additional storms may develop across the state through the day. Some of these may dip south across the border into Ohio and may impact KTOL this afternoon/evening and have retained a PROB30 group for TS and MVFR there. Do not expect TS to attempt to reach any other terminals this evening. The remnants of these storms may move over the Lake Erie region overnight and should mainly be a cloud/ceiling issue. But there is a non-zero chance for some rain and maybe some thunder to persist east, but too low of confidence to put into any TAFs at this time. Winds will start generally south to southeast before flipping to a northerly component with the high pressure moving through the eastern half of the area. Winds will flip back to the south to southeast as high pressure moves east of the area and a warm front lifts north through the airspace. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with iso/sct showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours daily through Tuesday. && .MARINE... High pressure north of Lake Erie this morning will slide southeast today, allowing for east to northeast winds of 5-10 kts today. As the surface high passes east of the area, a warm front will extend across the lake tonight and flow will shift to the southeast 5-10 kts. The lake will be in the warm, return flow ahead of the next system and southwest flow will be favored on the lake for Saturday and Sunday. The pressure gradient could be strong enough for some 15 kt winds during the first half of Sunday. The cold front of this system will cross the lake on Sunday night and flow will shift to the west then northwest for Monday. Onshore flow of 10 kts or less will remain for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds from the north. In summary, conditions on Lake Erie should be benign with winds 15 kts or less and waves generally 2 ft or less and marine headlines are not expected through Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...10 NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Sefcovic