545
FXUS61 KCLE 210753
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
253 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass northeast of the area today. Meanwhile,
low pressure will develop over the central United States and
move east through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure will build behind this system on
Saturday. A weak low will pass north of the area on Sunday. High
pressure will return for Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front passing to the northeast will get into NE OH/NW PA
this morning in conjunction with the upper trough moving through
eastern Canada. There is some low potential for some showers to
develop along this feature and have re-introduced some low PoPs
for this area this morning. Otherwise, the main feature for
today and tonight will be a developing low pressure system over
the central CONUS that will push east toward the Ohio Valley.
There continues to be a slight trend southward with this system,
especially as the trough the northeast remains stronger.
Therefore, will have a mix of chance to likely PoPs continuing
across the area tonight, but the expanse of likely PoPs
continues to shrink southeast and total QPF caps to at most
one-tenth of an inch of rain. High pressure will be quick to
return on Saturday with an upper ridge entering the region and
dry weather is expected. Temperatures will be near normal today
in the 50s with below normal in the 40s on Saturday behind the
low pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The short term forecast period appears quiet for the weekend
before Thanksgiving. High pressure will be in control to start
the period and dry weather is expected on Saturday night. For
Sunday, an upper trough will dig into the Northeast United
States, supporting a low pressure system to the northeast. Do
not believe that this will impact the local area, but it will be
close. High pressure will return on Sunday night into Monday and
allow for continued dry weather. Temperatures through the period
appear to be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast remains on track for a large system to
sweep across the CONUS next week that will bring widespread rain
to the region at some point and allow for colder air to settle
into the Great Lakes for after the holiday. However, much like
24 hours ago, there is still quite the spread in solutions for
this system, which has implications on rain timing and winds for
Monday night through Wednesday and any residual rain and snow
for Thursday and beyond. Maintaining higher PoPs during the
first half of the period but this will certainly need to be
shortened up with time. In addition, winds will need to be
watched depending on the ultimate low pressure track and
strength of the cold front. Have chance PoPs for rain
transitioning into snow on Thursday, but a faster system may
lead to quicker lake effect snow chances, while a slower system
may still be more broad with precipitation. This period will
certainly be one to watch with the holiday and travel interests
looming.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
As of 5z Friday, conditions range from VFR in extreme Northeast
OH and Northwest PA, including ERI, to IFR towards Northwest and
Central OH, including TOL, FDY, and MFD, with MVFR in between.
Ceilings and to some extent visibility will gradually worsen
through the early morning hours as low-level moisture continues
increasing from the southwest. All sites except for ERI will
likely fall to IFR or lower over the next few hours...confidence
in IFR at CLE has increased enough for inclusion for a brief
window around 12z. Based on widespread LIFR just upstream and
fairly consistent guidance, have a few hours of LIFR at all
sites except for CLE and ERI. Conditions gradually improve back
to MVFR later this morning into this afternoon. An area of
light rain, including potential for MVFR vsby and a return to
IFR ceilings, will likely impact southern terminals this
evening, which is including from FDY-YNG points south.

Mainly south winds at <7kt early this morning shift more
westerly through this at 5 to 10kt. Winds will shift more
north-northwesterly tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings due to stratus lingers Friday night.
VFR is then favored Saturday through Monday, though will need to
monitor how quickly the stratus clears into the weekend. Non-VFR
in rain showers possible Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will persist through today before a
cold front moves east tonight and shifts winds to become
northwesterly at 5-15 knots. These winds will gradually shift around
a high pressure system moving across the region, becoming
southwesterly by Saturday night. On Sunday, the gradient will
increase across Lake Erie, resulting in winds increasing to 15-20
knots from the west-northwest. There may need to be a brief Small
Craft Advisory on Sunday with waves building around 4 feet across
the eastern basin, but will continue to monitor trends in the coming
updates. These winds should weaken by Sunday night to 5-15 knots and
gain a more southerly component through Monday and into Tuesday. By
midweek, a stronger low pressure system will move across the Great
Lakes region, bringing additional hazardous marine conditions to
Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...04