931
FXUS61 KCLE 221432
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
932 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will merge with a
developing surface low off the New England Coast today. A
surface trough will linger across the eastern Great Lakes
through Saturday. High pressure will briefly build into the Ohio
Valley Sunday before another strong low pressure system impacts
the Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
930 AM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures this morning to
reflect current observations, but overall there were no large
changes needed with this update. Winds will continue to
increase over the next couple hours.

645 am update...
There was some tweaks made to the hourly POPs from 12z this
morning through 00z this evening. But these adjustments were
minor with no changes to the overall forecast or weather impacts
that are expected today into this evening. We did update the
hourly wx precip type through the morning to much up with the
latest trends of the snow showers changing to rain showers from
the lakeshore and slowly transition southward

Previous discussion...
The round of wintry weather and localized heavy lake effect
snowfall we had during the past 24 hours has come to an end this
morning. As of 4 am, there are still some lingering light snow
showers over NEOH and NWPA but we are not expecting any
additional accumulations or impacts through the rest of the
morning. The trend going forward will be a slightly rise in our
temperatures through the rest of the morning as the low level
flow is shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly. This wind
shift or surface trough is currently near the lakeshore and will
continue to slowly move through northern Ohio through sunrise
this morning. Ironically the northwest low level flow will
advect in a slightly milder airmass and temperatures will slowly
rise into the lower to middle 40s later this morning. As the
temperatures start to slowly rise this morning, any leftover
snow showers will transition to rain showers from north to
south.

A low pressure system will deepen near the New England Coast
later today which will cause our winds to increase today into
tonight. A deep north-northwesterly flow will develop from the
low levels to the mid level of the atmosphere today into
tonight. This setup will bring a moisture rich flow from Lake
Huron and across Lake Erie down into NEOH and NWPA today through
Saturday. The temperature profile will be just a little too warm
to support any wintry precip with this next wave of lake effect
rain showers. We will see that increase in lake effect
rain showers through the rest of the morning and rain chances
will stay on the high side for NEOH and NWPA during the
afternoon through Saturday. There very well could be some bands
of moderate to heavy lake effect rain showers later today and
tonight. It will be cold, blustery and wet Friday and that will
continue tonight into Saturday. Northwest winds will increase 15
to 25 mph today with gusts likely up to 40 mph this afternoon
into the evening. Winds will remain breezy 15 to 20 mph tonight
and decrease to 10 to 15 mph on Saturday. Average QPF for the
snowbelt area of NEOH and NWPA will likely be up to 1.0" to
isolated 1.5" of rainfall through Saturday. Elsewhere like NWOH
into central Ohio, there will be some scattered rain showers
around today and tonight but not as concentrated or heavy as
what is expected near the snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA.
Temperatures will move much tonight with overnight low temps in
the upper 30s and lower 40s. The temperatures on Saturday will
only climb back into the middle to upper 40s for much of the
area with mostly overcast skies. Some locations in NWOH may
crack 50 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Last wave of the lake effect precipitation, likely rain at this
point, will come to an end as low level warm air advection begins
moving through the CWa and low level winds become more westerly and
then southwesterly by Sunday night. High pressure influences over
the central Appalachians will be short lived before tracking to the
coast, and the next upper level trough ejects out of the
intermountains west into the plains region. Surface low pressure
develops rapidly over the mid Mississippi Valley, heading
northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. The short term period
ends prior to a sharp cold front, but a significant and brief warm
up can be expected. Mid 40s to lower 50s Sunday become mid to upper
50s Monday. Prefrontal precipitation likely Monday with POPs peaking
around the 00Z Tue time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front cuts through Monday night, dropping temperatures back
down for the middle of the week. Brief period of lake effect
precipitation once again Tuesday into Tuesday night. Diurnally
driven precipitation types expected during this period as
temperatures drop below freezing Tuesday night. Flow aloft becomes
zonal Wednesday with a developing low pressure system moving west to
east from the southern plains into the Appalachians. Northern
portion of the precipitation shield pushes into the CWA from the
south with some below zero 850mb temperatures, and will need to
watch this system for changing precipitation types as well. Overall,
the trend in the extended is back into a chillier pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The overall message for aviation weather for this 12z TAF
update will be conditions starting out MVFR or low end MVFR but
becoming IFR as ceilings will lower later this morning. That
decrease in ceilings will like occur between 15z to 18z today
and that includes most of our NEOH and NWPA TAF sites. TOL and
FDY and much of NWOH will stay mostly in the MVFR to lower end
MVFR ceilings. The weather will be slightly less impactful for
NWOH with some passing scattered rain showers today and tonight
but not really expecting any flight category changes or impacts.
The rest of the TAF sites in NEOH and NWPA will see conditions
become less ideal late this morning into the afternoon timeframe
with ceilings dropping below 1000 feet and staying IFR through
the end of the time period into the overnight tonight. There
will also be lake effect rain showers becoming more numerous
across NEOH and NWPA later this morning. These showers as well
as misty conditions will continue this afternoon into overnight
with reduction to visibility between 2sm and 5sm for much of
the TAF period across NEOH and NWPA. The other aviation impact
to be mindful of will the strong, gusty winds that will increase
later this morning from the northwest. Wind speeds today will
be 12 to 20 knots with gusts likely up to 30 knots. Closer to
the lakeshore gusts may be up to 35 knots at times later today.
The gusts will relax for much of the area by 06z tonight but
remain breezy around 10 to 13 knots from the northwest during
through 12z Saturday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Saturday with scattered
lake effect rain showers mainly impacting the snowbelt area of
NEOH and NWPA. Gusty winds up to 30 knots from the West or
Northwest are expected Saturday. Another storm system early
next week may bring non-VFR conditions late Monday through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Watch in effect for the central basin as northwest winds will
be on the increase to around 30kts by late Friday with wave heights
pushing 10ft. Winds not quite as intense in the western and eastern
basins with Small Craft Advisories. Winds then ease to 15-20kts
Saturday with wave heights gradually decreasing before becoming
southwesterly Sunday 10-15kts into Monday. Strong cold front tracks
across the lake late Monday into Monday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...26