737
FXUS61 KCLE 120514
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
114 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A robust line of convection continues to push east towards the
area tonight. Conditions over the area conducive to strong to
severe storms persisting into northern Ohio. Dewpoints are
lingering in the 60s to low 70s with a modest amount of CAPE
present. Given these conditions, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued for all northern Ohio Counties until 5AM Friday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
late this evening into the overnight ahead of an approaching
cold front.

2) Slightly cooler and drier weather will move in behind the
cold front Friday through Saturday. Pleasant temperatures and
lower humidity will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A mid level shortwave disturbance is currently tracking across
far NEOH and NWPA this afternoon which has helped flared up
scattered strong to severe convection over our far eastern
counties. The threat for storms with this initial round of
convection is just about to completely move out of NWPA and
will likely expired the severe storm watch here shortly. In the
wake of this mid level disturbance, some drier air has mixed
down from the upper atmosphere with dewpoints in the lower to
middle 60s across much of northern Ohio this afternoon.
Temperatures are also slightly cooler ranging from the upper 70s
over NEOH to the upper 80s over NWOH. We have cancelled the Heat
Advisory this afternoon due to that slightly drier air mixing
down which is keeping the heat index in check. If you have plans
for the rest of the afternoon and early evening, the weather
should be fairly quiet for the time being as we are in a lull
in between areas of convection.

The next and most likely the final round of showers and
thunderstorms that could impact our area will be sometime late
this evening into the overnight, possibly lingering into the
very early hours of Friday morning. This round of showers and
possible storms will be just ahead of the approaching cold front
that will move through the area early Friday morning. The
atmosphere may recover just enough ahead of the shortwave
disturbance later tonight to maintain a marginal to slight risk
for severe storms overnight. The better potential for
additional strong to severe convection would favor NWOH later
this evening into tonight. We will be watching the disturbance
and complex of convection near Chicago at this time as it moves
eastward towards NWOH late this evening. The main threat with
any strong to severe storms tonight will be damaging wind gusts.
The overall trend for convection tonight will be a weakening as
it moves from west to east. Some lingering showers and isolated
storms may still be over our far NEOH and NWPA counties around
daybreak Friday morning, slowly moving eastward and out of the
area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will build in later Friday through Saturday across
the region with slightly cooler, more comfortable temperatures.
High temps on Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
lower humidity levels. Friday night low temperatures will be
pleasant in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Saturday will bring
more sunshine and fair weather with highs back into the lower
and middle 80s. The overall weather pattern will change with a
large, broad upper level trough developing over the Great Lakes
region later this weekend into next week. A cold front will
move through the area late Saturday night through Sunday with a
chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
SUnday afternoon will be knocked back down into the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees. High pressure and a fair weather day is
expected on Monday with highs in the lower to middle 70s. The
next chance for rain will arrive by middle of next week with a
low pressure system and cold front. Temperatures will remain in
the middle 70s to lower 80s going into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A weakening line of thunderstorms is moving east across NW OH.
Have already seen a weakening trend in thunderstorm activity and
expect this trend to continue as storms encounter more stable
air to the east of KTOL/KFDY. However, most terminals will
likely see at least a brief period of showers (with a low-end
thunder chance) early this morning with MVFR possible in
reduced visibilities in light to moderate rainfall. Can`t rule
out some stronger wind gusts to around 30 knots in showers and
lingering thunderstorms early in the TAF period. Behind the
showers, there will be a swath of MVFR ceilings with a cold
front for a few hours early Friday morning. Ceilings will rise
to VFR by late morning and from there VFR will persist through
the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be out of the south/southwest at 8 to 14 knots with
gusts to 20 to 25 knots through about 12Z this morning before
becoming more westerly behind the cold front mid to late
morning. Light and variable winds will develop after 00Z
Saturday.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
possible Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds to 15 to 25 knots are expected this morning and Small
Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in effect
early this morning through this afternoon. West/southwest winds
will diminish below 15 knots by this evening. Similar flow will
continue through Saturday with west/southwest winds increasing
to 15 to 20 knots ahead of the next cold front Sunday morning
and shifting to the northwest behind the front Sunday
afternoon. Additional Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards
Statements will likely be needed during this time. West/southwest
winds to 10 to 15 knots are expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     OHZ007-009.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ010-011.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM EDT early this morning
     through this afternoon for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM EDT early this morning
     through this afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ145-
     146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM EDT
     this afternoon for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04/77
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15