929
FXUS61 KCLE 140600
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heavy rain is possible from Marion to Mount Vernon early this
morning. The PoP forecast for Saturday night into Sunday has
been increasing as confidence in location and timing improves.
There is a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on
Saturday for the whole area, as well as for Northwest
Pennsylvania on Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through today
near and south of the US-30 corridor. Heavy rain is possible
from approximately Marion to Mount Vernon this morning.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will return Saturday night through
Sunday. Heavy rain is likely Saturday night, with a few
stronger storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A surface stationary boundary lingers over the lower Ohio
Valley, though forcing in the 850-700 mb layer extends well
north of this boundary. In the immediate near term, light to
moderate rain showers have generally remained south of a Wood to
Wayne County line. Showers should gradually expand northward to
as far as a Toledo-Lorain-Akron line but the risk for heavy rain
is likely to rain towards our southwest counties (Marion to
Knox) where the latest HRRR cycles project an inch of rain. The
risk for >2" of rain and subsequent flooding is low but not
completely out of the question, so we`ll have to monitor for
that this morning. Rain showers dissipate through the afternoon
and we should be completely rain free by around 21Z.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next period for unsettled weather will be Saturday night
through Sunday as a low pressure system moves east across the
Great Lakes.

A stationary front lingering over the Ohio Valley will lift
northward across the area Saturday night in response to low
pressure tracking across the Great Lakes region. A period of
heavy rain is becoming more likely Saturday night as a highly-
anomalous moist air mass, characterized by PWATS exceeding 2.0
inches, which is approaching the climatological maximum, enters
the area. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather
Saturday night.

The latest model guidance continues to be trending the strong
to severe storm threat further south of the area as any
redevelopment in the afternoon will likely focus along the
residual boundary from the overnight convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Light rain showers are sweeping southeast across southern
terminals. Areawide VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR,
with patchy IFR, in patchy fog and low ceilings. Highest
confidence in MVFR or lower will be across inland terminals in
western and central portions of the airspace. Expect for any
reductions to improve after daybreak this morning.

Light and variable winds overnight tonight will become east-
northeast while increasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions are expected to persist across Lake
Erie into this weekend as the area remains on the northern
fringe of a stalled boundary across the Ohio Valley. This will
keep winds variable and under 10 knots into Saturday. On
Saturday, the aforementioned boundary will begin to lift north
as a warm front which will be followed by a cold front on Sunday
into Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
beginning Saturday and persist into Sunday. Southerly winds on
Saturday will keep the highest waves along the northern
lakeshore before winds back behind the cold front Sunday and
become northwesterly. This shift may result in waves building
1-3 feet across the central and eastern basins, however given
the magnitude of the low, not expecting any marine headlines at
this point. High pressure returns for the start of next week and
calm conditions persist.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...13
MARINE...04