124
FXUS61 KCLE 311123
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
723 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues through early next week. Strong cold
front late Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper trough axis dropping in from the north this early morning will
close off over the mid Atlantic this afternoon and tonight. The
forecast remains dry for the region despite the proximity of the low
pressure system to the east, and very little effects in terms of
cloud cover are expected. Biggest influence will be the temperatures
on the cooler side continue with slight airmass modification due to
insolation. Low to mid 70s today, not as cool tonight but still in
the upper 40s to lower 50s away from the immediate lakeshore, and
mid to upper 70s Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level trough axis traverses the Mississippi Valley and heads
into the Ohio Valley for Wednesday, ahead of a potent cold front
cutting through the northern plains and in the Great Lakes. POPs
return to the forecast in the short term after a hiatus for
Wednesday with the upper trough axis. Low QPF on the front end of
this activity while temperatures remain near to slightly below
normal for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Very deep closed low aloft will drop quickly from the Canadian
prairies in the northern Great Lakes bringing 500mb heights
Wednesday night through Thursday night 3-4 standard deviations below
normal just to the west of the CWA. An associated surface low
pressure system will strengthen accordingly and send a cold front
through the are late Wednesday night into Thursday. Expecting a line
of anafrontal convection immediately following the
Wednesday/Wednesday night precipitation chances from the
aforementioned southern upper trough. 850mb temperatures will fall
back into the single digits. As the system occludes over northern
Ontario without any additional southern progression, the coolest air
will remain well north of the CWA. Back into the 60s for Thursday
and Friday as this preview of fall continues.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period at all
terminals as high pressure builds across the region. Winds will
continue to be light and variable and then turn predominantly
out of the northeast throughout the day at 5-10 knots. KCLE and
KERI and areas along the lake shore may see stronger winds, but
still expect to be less than 15 knots.

Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. On Wednesday,
isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions over Lake Erie will remain quiet as high pressure
continues through early next week. Winds will be out of the
east to northeast at less than 10 knots with waves at 2 feet or
less through Tuesday. By Wednesday, a cold front will be
approaching from the west and winds will shift to be southerly
and increase to 15-25 knots by Thursday morning. The front will
pass during the day Thursday with winds and waves diminishing
behind. Headlines on Lake Erie will likely be needed during
this time period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23