954
FXUS61 KCLE 181729
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
129 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Enhanced Risk for today has been expanded westward to
include most of the local area. Damaging wind gusts remain the
main hazard with storms today. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this
evening. Scattered storms will could be strong to severe with
damaging winds being the primary hazard.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely late Monday and
Tuesday. Storms may be strong to severe, primarily on Tuesday.

3) Today will be the last day with hot temperatures before
temperatures cool down Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
Tweaked POPS this morning to account for the widely scattered
convection in the warm sector. This appears to be tied to a weak
wind shift or outflow boundary, and expect it to push largely S
and E of the area by 15 to 16Z. No severe weather and minimal
lightning is anticipated with this activity. Mainly dry
conditions will otherwise dominate late this morning through mid
afternoon until convection starts to develop ahead of the cold
front, with the main show likely to be between 4 and 9 PM. See
Key Message 1 below for details.


KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will lift east of the area this morning, pushing
any lingering smoke to the east. From there, the CWA will be in
the warm sector as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms can`t be ruled out through this
morning, although confidence in the coverage/placement is low.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop with a pre-frontal trough
this afternoon before pushing southeast across the CWA into the
evening.

There`s still potential for severe weather this afternoon into this
evening (roughly 2-3 PM through about 9 PM) given the unstable and
moist air mass in place across the region. MLCAPE values of 2500-
3000+ J/kg will be in place during peak diurnal heating and some mid-
level dry air (and DCAPE values of around 800-1000 J/kg) will
contribute to a damaging wind gust threat, which may be scattered to
widespread depending on how organized storms become. Effective
bulk shear will increase to 30 to 40 knots as the cold front
advances into the region which will allow any initial cellular
convection to congeal into clusters/line segments. A few
tornadoes can`t be ruled out across portions of NE OH/NW PA,
where the wind field and low level shear (albeit marginal) will
be a bit more favorable. Isolated instances of large hail can`t
be ruled out, primarily in storms with taller/rotating updrafts.
In summary, damaging wind gusts are definitely the most
likely/widespread hazard with tornadoes being a secondary
hazard. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe weather is in
place across most of the area.

Torrential rainfall rates are likely in storms given PWAT values up
to 2 inches, however storm motion will be relatively fast which will
help mitigate the flash flood risk. There may be ponding/minor
flooding in poor drainage/urban areas and around the most responsive
creeks/streams, but overall the flash flood risk is low.

Another round of showers and isolated storms may push off of Lake
Erie with the cold front later this evening, but the atmosphere
will be worked over so do not anticipate severe weather. Dry
weather will return for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will produce dry weather through at least early
Monday before shower and thunderstorm chances return as the next
system moves across the region late Monday through Tuesday.
There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty with the trajectory and
timing of a developing upper level low to the north of the area
during this time, which will impact storm placement/timing.
There will likely be sufficient forcing for organized showers
and thunderstorms and possibly severe thunderstorms at some
point on Tuesday (likely during the day), although confidence in
instability is low this far out.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Today will feature one last day of well above normal
temperatures before cooler temps arrive behind the cold front
Sunday. Highs will be in the 80s and lower 90s with the hottest
temps expected across NW OH and in urban areas. Dew points will
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s and as a result heat index
values will be in the 90s. Apparent temps may attempt to briefly
flirt with 100 degrees in a few spots along/west of I-71,
although confidence in Heat Advisory criteria being met is low
due to potential for showers/thunderstorms during peak diurnal
heating. Sunday will feel much different with highs in the 70s
to around 80 degrees and Sunday night`s lows falling into the
lower 60s and 50s. Temps briefly warm to around normal
Monday/Tuesday, but daytime temps in the 70s will return for mid
to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Warm front has swept to the northeast. Only residual wildfire haze
was affecting KTOL. Otherwise, smoke and low ceilings have eroded
this morning. Visible Satellite displayed a cu field over NC/NE OH
and W PA with isolated sh over central Ohio.

This afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop ahead
of a cold front, potentially impacting all TAF sites with a brief
window of lower vsbys and gusty to strong winds. Highest confidence
in thunderstorm coverage and the potential for wind gusts to exceed
40 knots. Have inserted gusts up to 35 to 40 knots in the window
from 19z to 01z in a tempo group for all taf sites this afternoon.
Additional scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are
possible with the cold front later in the evening as it sweeps south
through the area.

Gusty southwest winds of 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will
continue through 22z for most sites outside of convection. Winds
will abruptly shift towards the north behind the cold front later
this evening and overnight, around 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with haze/smoke on Sunday and Monday. Non-
VFR becoming more likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday night
through Tuesday. Some thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening
may contain strong wind gusts. Residual non-VFR possible on
Wednesday on rain showers across the eastern half of the area.


&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will arrive across Lake Erie today as
southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a cold front.
Winds will shift towards the north behind the front later this
evening and overnight, 15 to 20 knots, before diminishing to
less than 10 knots by Sunday afternoon. In this package, have
extended the Small Craft and Beach Hazards for the central
basin, and added a couple of zones west towards the Islands,
mainly for the onshore flow later this evening and overnight.
Another period for rough marine conditions will arrive on
Tuesday as southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a
cold front. Will likely need another round of marine headlines
Tuesday through Wednesday as winds shift towards the northwest
behind the cold front, around 20 knots.

Strong thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across Lake Erie
this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM EDT this evening through
     Sunday morning for OHZ009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas/15
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...Kahn