095
FXUS61 KCLE 232347
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
747 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will then sweep east through the area tonight into
Sunday, followed by lingering surface troughing persisting through
Tuesday. High pressure will gradually build across the region
from the west by Wednesday, which will linger across the area
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front extending across the Great Lakes will work its way
east across our forecast area tonight and tomorrow. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected ahead of and near the cold front
tonight through tomorrow morning, though PoPs are quite low (in
the 10-20% range). Most of the daytime hours tomorrow will be
precipitation-free though. A surface trough will cold air aloft
will lead to lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Erie in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An unseasonably cold airmass continues to build in through the
short term period, resulting in periods of lake effect rain
showers (especially Monday and Monday night) in Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania, along with chilly, fall-like
temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s are expected
with a few climate sites could be near record low temperatures
with forecast low in the 40s (see climate section below).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect rain winds down on Wednesday as high pressure builds
in. The chilly airmass remains on Wednesday before temperatures
rebound into the mid to upper 70s Thursday through Saturday.
Still no 80s in the forecast, and generally no precipitation as
high pressure remains across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A cold front is approaching the region from the west and will
continue to move eastward and exit northwestern Pennsylvania by
Sunday morning. There are a few convective showers associated
with the front currently across northern Indiana, though they
have been fairly scattered. Confidence is low in convection
impacting the terminals given their scattered nature and moving
into a more unfavorable environment. Though, MVFR conditions can
be expected within the showers. After frontal passage, VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
There is potential for lake effect showers with the west-
northwesterly flow towards the end of the TAF period, but
confidence is higher in showers occurring on Monday.

Winds are currently out of the west-southwest at around 5 knots.
With frontal passage, winds will shift to be more westerly and
west-northwesterly at 5-10 knots. There`s potential for gusty
winds up to 15 knots across region tomorrow afternoon after
18Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are expected across NE OH and NW PA
within lake effect showers from Sunday night through Wednesday.
Non-VFR conditions possible for the majority of N OH and NW PA
with a passing shortwave. There could be some lingering lake
effect shower into Thursday with non-VFR expected within those,
but VFR expected across the majority of the region.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge continues to exit E`ward from Lake Erie
before a cold front sweeps E`ward across the lake late this
evening through Sunday morning, which will cause SW`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W`erly as waves remain 3 feet or
less. During the rest of Sunday through Tuesday, a trough
lingers over Lake Erie and should be accompanied by winds of 10
to nearly 20 knots varying between WSW`erly and NW`erly. Waves
up to 2 to 4 feet, with occasional 5 footers are expected,
especially east of The Islands. The strongest winds and largest
waves are expected Sunday evening through Tuesday. Forecast
trends will continue to be monitored for the eventual need for
a Small Craft Advisory. NW`erly winds ease to around 5 to 15
knots Tuesday night and then back gradually to SW`erly on
Wednesday through Thursday as a ridge affects Lake Erie and the
ridge`s embedded high pressure center moves from the Lower MO
Valley to Atlantic waters near the Delmarva Peninsula. Waves
subside to 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-cold air mass will arrive across the region early
next week. Some sites may reach or exceed their daily record
low temperatures.

Previous Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures...

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
08-26   45(1964)       38(1958)       47(1958)       41(1914)       40(1897)       47(1958)
08-27   48(1969)       36(1946)       49(1963)       44(1914)       43(1969)       47(1954)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Jaszka
CLIMATE...