860
FXUS61 KCLE 121327
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
927 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front over the Ohio River will return north today and continue
to fluctuate north and south across Ohio through Thursday night.
This front will finally pass north as a warm front on Friday. A
strong low pressure system will pass through the western Great
Lakes this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
930 AM Update...
Minor adjustments were made to dew point temperatures across the
area as areas along the lake remain in the 20s, but further
south they have dropped into the low to mid teens. Aside from
that, the forecast remains on track for today and no additional
changes were needed.

630 AM Update...
Mid-level cloud deck has developed across the region as expected
and will move northeast through the forecast area during morning
and early afternoon hours. Temperatures were running a bit
cooler than forecasted and have tweaked the trend down for the
next couple of hours.

Previous Discussion...
A frontal boundary over the Ohio River this morning will be
lifted back north as a warm front this afternoon. Given the
zonal flow aloft and weak synoptic forcing for this front, it
will struggle to make it through the forecast area and suspect
that it will stall out a county or two south of Lake Erie. This
will set up quite the temperature gradient with upper 40s to
lower 50s north of the front and 60s south of the front. Clouds
have developed with a narrow layer of moisture around 700 mb and
will continue to develop and spread north this morning. This
slight amount of isentropic lift could allow for some spotty
showers in Northwest PA this afternoon and evening, but overall
total QPF is minimal, especially given the dry lowest layer of
the atmosphere.

The front will retreat back south tonight and clouds will
dissipate allowing for lows in the 30s again. The front will
lift back north again on Thursday, but some synoptic forcing
with an upper trough moving through the Ohio Valley should push
the front farther north than today. Unfortunately, the lake will
hang the front up and lakeshore communities will remain colder
in the upper 40s to mid 50s, while much of the forecast area
returns to the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, W`erly flow over our CWA Thursday night backs to SW`erly on
Friday as a ridge axis shifts from near the MS Valley to near Cape
Hatteras and just east of Lake Superior. This will allow the surface
portion of the ridge to exit gradually E`ward from our region.
Simultaneously, a potent shortwave trough ejects ENE`ward from the
southwest U.S. to the central Great Plains and vicinity. At the
surface, attendant cyclogenesis is expected over the plains of
eastern CO Thursday night, in the lee of the Rockies. This surface
low is then expected to wobble ENE`ward and then NE`ward toward the
Mid MO Valley and deepen considerably as it remains downstream of
the aforementioned shortwave trough axis. Accordingly, a surface
warm front will move N`ward across our CWA and Lake Erie Thursday
night through Friday and usher-in a warmer/moister air mass
originating over the Gulf. Fair weather is expected to persist as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge at the surface and
aloft, and the low-level atmospheric column remains relatively dry
along and ahead of the surface portion of the warm front. Overnight
lows are expected to reach the upper 30`s to lower 40`s in NW PA and
the upper 30`s to mid 40`s in northern OH around daybreak Friday.
Partly cloudy sky and daytime warming, complemented by low-level
WAA, will allow Friday`s late afternoon highs to reach mainly the
upper 60`s to mid 70`s. Our regional surface winds should gust up to
20-30 mph on Friday , especially during the late morning through
afternoon, as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer taps
into somewhat stronger flow aloft.

S`erly to SW`erly flow aloft is expected Friday night through Sunday
night as the aforementioned shortwave trough shifts NNE`ward across
the central Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and toward James Bay. The
associated and potent low at the surface and aloft is expected to
wobble NNE`ward from the Mid MO Valley toward James Bay, become
vertically-stacked with time, and therefore weaken very slowly. As a
a result, the low`s attendant surface trough will continue to
overspread our region from the west as the longwave trough
approaches from the Intermountain West and Central U.S. The low`s
attendant cold front should begin sweeping ENE`ward across our CWA
during the predawn hours of Sunday morning and near the I-71
corridor by daybreak. Periods of rain, steady to heavy at times, are
expected after midnight Friday night through Saturday night as moist
isentropic ascent precedes the longwave trough axis and shortwave
trough axes aloft, and the cold front and pre-front surface trough
axes associated with shortwave troughs are accompanied by low-level
convergence/moist ascent. These lifting mechanisms may release weak
to perhaps moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE, to trigger
isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening as warm sector
surface dew points peak in the lower to mid 50`s. Any surface-based
thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts amidst strong deep
layer bulk shear, including low-level winds strengthening rapidly
with height. Our regional non-convective surface winds will remain
gusty Friday night through Saturday night, especially during the
late morning through afternoon hours of Saturday. This is when
diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer should tap into
stronger flow aloft and yield peak surface wind gusts of 40 to
perhaps 50 mph. Forecast trends will continue to be monitored for
the possibility of severe thunderstorms and need for a Wind Advisory.

As for temperatures, Friday night`s lows are expected to be near 50F
in NW PA and reach the lower to upper 50`s in northern OH as
increasing cloud cover from the south and west, and continued low-
level WAA limit nocturnal cooling through daybreak Saturday. On
Saturday, intervals of sunshine amidst continued low-level WAA
should allow late afternoon highs to reach the upper 60`s to lower
70`s in NW PA and mainly the lower to mid 70`s in northern OH. CAA
at the surface and aloft, behind the cold front, is expected to
contribute to lows reaching the upper 40`s to lower 50`s roughly
along/west of I-71 by daybreak Sunday. Ahead of the front, lows are
expected to reach the lower to mid 50`s in the warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, the longwave trough axis should continue to approach our CWA
from the west on Sunday and traverse our region from west to east
Sunday night. Behind the trough axis, a ridge begins to build from
the north-central U.S. At the surface, the above-mentioned cold
front will continue to sweep E`ward away from roughly I-71 and
should exit the rest of our CWA by early evening. Behind the front,
the surface portion of the aforementioned ridge begins to build from
the west. Additional periods of rain, associated with moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the longwave trough axis aloft and low-
level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front, will end from
west to east on Sunday through Sunday night. CAA at the surface and
aloft, the wet-bulb effect, and nocturnal cooling may allow rain to
mix with wet snow overnight Sunday night before precip ends in NE OH
and NW PA.

On Sunday, CAA behind the cold front and a mostly cloudy sky should
prevent temperatures from rebounding much. Daytime highs should
reach the 50`s to lower 60`s. The warmest highs are expected ahead
of the cold front. Sunday night`s lows should reach the lower to mid
30`s around daybreak Monday, amidst the CAA regime.

On Monday through Tuesday, the ridge at the surface and aloft is
expected to continue to affect our CWA as the ridge builds and
eventually crests E`ward. Current odds favor fair weather as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Low-level WAA is
expected to develop across our region by Monday afternoon as
northern OH and NW PA become located along the western flank of the
surface ridge. Late afternoon highs should reach the 40`s to lower
50`s. Overnight lows should reach the 30`s to near 40F around
daybreak Tuesday. Intervals of sunshine should contribute to late
afternoon highs reaching mainly the mid 50`s to mid 60`s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions are still expected across the area today. Mid-
level clouds have formed across the area and will lift northeast
through the day today. As a front lifts back north into the
airspace, northeast flow north of the front will increase,
especially across Northwest Ohio. Some scattered lower VFR
clouds will form, but low level moisture will be lacking to have
any firm lower ceilings. Some spotty showers are possible in NW
PA this afternoon, but confidence at KERI is very low and may
ultimately miss all of the TAF sites. The front will retreat
back south this evening and the low and mid level clouds should
dissipate and some high clouds with northeast flow will be
favored across the area.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through Friday. A strong cold
front crosses Saturday night into Sunday with gusty winds and
possible non-VFR conditions during rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 1 PM today to 2 AM EDT
Thursday from The Islands to Geneva-on-the-Lake. A ridge persists
over Lake Erie through Thursday night. NE`erly winds around 10 to 20
knots are expected through the wee hours of Thursday morning, with
the strongest winds expected within the Small Craft Advisory area
and over adjacent open U.S. waters. Waves as large as 3 to 5 feet
are expected at times in ice-free waters, especially this afternoon
through about midnight tonight. During the rest of Thursday morning
through sunset Thursday evening, NE`erly winds are expected to ease
to around 5 to 15 knots as waves subside to 3 feet or less. NE`erly
winds around 5 to 15 knots veer to SE`erly Thursday night as waves
remain 3 feet or less. On Friday through Sunday, a low is expected
to track generally NE`ward from the central Great Plains toward
James Bay and deepen considerably. This low will allow a warm front
to sweep N`ward across Lake Erie Friday through Friday night.
Accordingly, SE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on Friday veer
toward S`erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots Friday night.
Waves of 3 feet or less on Friday build to as large as 3 to 6 feet
in open U.S. waters Friday night, but remain 3 feet or less in
nearshore U.S. waters due to shorter fetch. Another Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed.

Given the above-mentioned low track, S`erly winds around 15 to 25
knots are expected on Saturday. Waves remain as large as 3 to 6 feet
in open U.S. waters and 3 feet or less in nearshore U.S. waters.
During Saturday night, the low`s cold front should begin to sweep
generally E`ward across Lake Erie and essentially bisect the lake by
daybreak Sunday morning. S`erly winds persist ahead of the front,
while SW`erly winds are expected behind the front. Winds are
expected to be around 10 to 20 knots basin-wide and waves are
forecast to subside to 4 feet or less by daybreak. On Sunday, winds
remain around 10 to 20 knots over Lake Erie. As the cold front
sweeps E`ward across the rest of the lake, S`erly winds veer to
SW`erly and then farther in the wake of the front, winds veer
further toward W`erly. Waves as large as 3 to 5 feet are forecast,
especially in the central basin, and may prompt another Small Craft
Advisory.

Warming temperatures will cause additional melting of remaining ice
on Lake Erie. Periods of elevated winds will likely cause chunks of
ice to break offshore and float around. Ice movement will be
hazardous and will greatly dictate wave potential.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for LEZ143>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...04/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Jaszka