247
FXUS61 KCLE 111114
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
714 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the East Coast will continue to influence the
region today. A cold front will approach from the northwest on
Tuesday and make slow progress south across the area through
Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind the front on Thursday
and influence the region through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The heat continues during the near term forecast with temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s today and tomorrow. Dewpoints in the 60s
to near 70 degrees today will creep up a couple more for Tuesday as
moisture pools ahead of an approaching front. This will push heat
index values up across northwest and north central Ohio into the mid
and upper 90s.

High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to influence
the region with another dry day for most of the area. The atmosphere
east of I-71 will remain capped with lower dewpoints. Meanwhile low
to mid-level moisture starts to increase across NW Ohio with 500-800
J/kg of ML CAPE. A lack of forcing remains with the better focus
across southern lower Michigan where a shortwave passes with weak
surface convergence late in the day. Given the moisture and weak
instability will continue with a low pop in the western counties.

While Tuesday remains hot, the upper level ridge starts to break
down. Shortwave energy will stream northeast across Michigan ahead
of a stronger trough dropping into the Upper Great Lakes. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon as
moisture advection continues ahead of the front and may also be
focused along the lake breeze in Northeast Ohio/Northwest
Pennsylvania.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Good coverage of rain finally arrives Tuesday night through
Wednesday with a cold front. Thunderstorms will increase in NW Ohio
towards evening along the pre-frontal trough. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to continue east overnight with the deep
moisture axis and frontal forcing arriving. This will allow for some
potential of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall with convergence
along the front making training a possibility. The airmass will be
moist with PW values around 2 inches and storm motion around 20-25
knots. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday,
especially across the southeastern half of the forecast area. Expect
some showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing Wednesday morning,
becoming focused more south of Route 30 during the afternoon where
instability will be higher.

The front does not bring a big cool down but temperatures will be in
the mid 80s on Wednesday then lower 80s with falling dewpoints on
Thursday. High pressure builds in as the front pushes south and
locations in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania will see lows
drop into the mid 50s on Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term starts off with near normal temperatures and dry
conditions with high pressure overhead before the upper ridge
amplifies again into the weekend. The ridge expands north across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes Region with a warm front
lifting north Friday night. Highs will be near 90 for many areas
again next weekend. Friday and Saturday both look dry with high
pressure settling south towards the Appalachians. Timing the
front back south will lie with the strength of a trough crossing
eastern Canada on Sunday and may be delayed into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure will gradually begin to drift east of the region
today, although it will maintain influence across the majority
of the area through the majority of the TAF period. A few
showers and thunderstorms may attempt to develop in the vicinity
of KTOL/KFDY this afternoon, but coverage may be a bit limited
so only have a PROB30 for precip for the time being. Confidence
in precip is slightly higher at KTOL so have also included VCSH
late this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise, VFR is
expected through the entire forecast period, although any
showers/storms could produce brief non-VFR conditions at western
terminals. Have omitted possibly patchy fog at inland terminals
late tonight/early Tuesday morning due to low confidence in the
density and placement/coverage.

Winds will largely be southerly and relatively light early
before increasing to 5 to 10 knots by late this morning or early
this afternoon. A lake breeze will most likely produce a period
of west/northwest winds at KCLE and northerly winds at KERI
this afternoon into this evening. Winds will become light at
inland terminals tonight.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR conditions are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally expect quiet marine conditions on Lake Erie this week.
Winds will largely be offshore at 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday
with periodic onshore flow likely due to daily lake breezes both
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Winds will become more
westerly as a cold front approaches on Wednesday and shift to
the northeast behind the front Wednesday night through Thursday.
Easterly flow will likely develop by Friday. Sustained winds
will remain in the 5 to 10 knots range Wednesday through the end
of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15