555
FXUS61 KCLE 201033
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
626 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge builds into our region today and begins to exit
eastward tonight as the embedded high pressure center moves from
the northern Great Lakes to southern Quebec. On Monday, a warm
front sweeps northeastward through our area between about
daybreak and late afternoon, and a cold front sweeps eastward
through our region during the afternoon through early evening.
Simultaneously, a low moves northeastward from the Upper
Mississippi Valley to central Ontario. Behind the low and cold
front, a ridge builds from the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley
through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

6:25 AM EDT Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...

A ridge aloft builds from the Upper Midwest today and begins to
exit toward the northeastern United States tonight. Simultaneously,
the surface portion of the ridge exits gradually E`ward as the
embedded high pressure center moves from the northern Great
Lakes to southern QC. In addition, a potent shortwave through
ejects NE`ward from the southwestern Great Plains to the Upper
MS Valley this morning through daybreak Monday, which should
allow the attendant surface low to wobble NE`ward from western
TX to southern WI. The surface warm front accompanying the low
will sweep NE`ward from near the Mid OH Valley tonight and
should reach far southwestern portions of the OH section of our
CWA by daybreak Monday. The anticyclonic circulation of the
surface high pressure center will allow N`erly to E`erly surface
winds to transport cooler/drier air into our region as
intervals of sunshine permit some daytime heating. Highs are
expected to reach the 50`s north of roughly the U.S. Route 30
corridor and the upper 50`s to upper 60`s elsewhere late this
afternoon. Tonight`s lows should reach mainly the mid 40`s to
mid 50`s around midnight tonight. Temperatures should begin to
moderate during the predawn hours of Monday morning as low-level
CAA gives way to strengthening low-level WAA ahead of the
surface warm front and the aforementioned surface low deepens
downstream of its parent shortwave trough`s axis.

Fair weather is expected through midnight tonight as stabilizing
subsidence accompanies the aforementioned ridge. After midnight
tonight, moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the
warm front will release weak to moderate and solely elevated
CAPE. Accordingly, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to overspread our region generally from the southwest
during the predawn hours of Monday morning. Unusually-high
PWAT`s associated with a low-level return flow of moist air
from the Gulf will allow showers and storms to produce periods
of heavy rain.

Cyclonic SW`erly flow aloft resides over northern OH and NW PA
on Monday as the aforementioned shortwave through moves farther
NE`ward from the Upper MS Valley to the northern Great Lakes and
northern ON. Simultaneously, the attendant surface low should
move NE`ward from southern WI to near eastern Lake Superior and
begin to weaken as it becomes vertically-stacked with the
mid/upper-level low embedded in the shortwave trough. The
surface warm front is expected to sweep NE`ward across the rest
of our CWA through late Monday afternoon, while an arcing cold
front should begin to sweep E`ward through our CWA Monday
afternoon and clear our CWA by sunset Monday evening. Behind the
cold front, a surface ridge builds from the Upper and Mid MS
Valley. Low-level WAA and peeks of sunshine in the warm sector
should allow daytime highs to reach mainly the upper 60`s to mid
70`s. Diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into
stronger flow aloft should allow S`erly to SW`erly surface winds to
gust up to 30 to 40 mph during the late morning through early
evening. Strongest gusts are expected west of roughly I-71.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
along the upper-reaches of the warm front as moist isentropic
ascent continues to release weak to moderate and solely elevated
CAPE. Behind the warm front, a relative lull in shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible in the warm sector for several
hours due to compensating/stabilizing subsidence in the wake of
the elevated convection. As the warm sector boundary layer
destabilizes via daytime heating and low-level warm/moist air
advection from the Gulf, an initially elevated effective inflow
layer will become surface-based. Additional organized showers
and thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the E`ward-
advancing cold front from about mid-morning through early
evening as low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold
front and downshear outflow boundaries interacting favorably
with ambient low-level vertical shear release weak to moderate
boundary layer CAPE amidst continued moderate to strong
effective bulk shear. Despite the aforementioned vertical wind
shear, severe thunderstorm potential appears to be minimal
because, for example, continued weak mid-level lapse rates
should result in weak MUCAPE in the hail growth zone and a
continued moist mid-level atmospheric column should limit DCAPE
magnitudes. Periods of heavy rain should occur once again as
low-level moisture advection from the Gulf continues to be
accompanied by unusually-high PWAT`s. However, flooding is not a
concern since, for example, SW`erly mean mid-level flow near 50
knots will result in fast shower/storm motions. Once the cold front
clears a given location, showers/storms should end quickly as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the post-front surface ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period appears quiet and uneventful for the
local area. A low pressure system will depart the region and high
pressure will build from the northwest for Tuesday. This surface
high will pass to the east on Wednesday and a warm front will lift
north across the area. Overall, there will be limited forcing for
any rain through Wednesday. There will be some rain with the warm
front, but it may be limited to just northwest of the forecast area
where there will be better moisture with the front. Temperatures
will be cooler on Tuesday with a mix of 50s and 60s  behind a cold
front. Temperatures will recover to a mix of 60s and 70s for
Wednesday with the warm front into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The forecast for the end of the week will return to unsettled with
several rounds of rain expected. There still remains some
uncertainty with the onset of precipitation on Thursday with an
upper ridge over the region and a fairly dry air mass to start.
Eventually, some energy undermines the ridge and moisture will
advect into the region by Thursday evening and will have PoPs
increase to chance. Temperatures on Thursday will increase to 70s
across the board with some upper 70s, depending on how long rain
will hold off. For Friday, an upper trough over the upper Midwest
will support a low pressure system that will move through the Great
Lakes region. This system will extend a cold front across the area
and exit by Saturday. Have PoPs increasing to likely with this
system. Conditions should improve through the day on Saturday with
rain exiting and high pressure entering. Temperatures will be cooler
in the 60s

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft builds E`ward across our region
before it begins to exit toward the northeast United States
after 00Z/Mon. Elsewhere, a disturbance aloft ejects NE`ward
from the southwestern Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley
through 12Z/Mon. Simultaneously, the attendant surface low
moves NE`ward from the southern Great Plains to southern WI.
This low track will allow a surface warm front to move NE`ward
from the Mid OH Valley tonight and approach a KFDY to KMFD line
by 12Z/Mon. Our regional surface winds will veer gradually from
primarily NE`erly to SE`erly through the TAF period and trend 5
to 15 knots in magnitude. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are possible
after ~06Z/Mon.

Variable amounts of cloud cover in the low-levels and especially
the mid/upper-levels is expected through the TAF period. Any
ceilings are expected to primarily be 5kft AGL or higher.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms along the upper-reaches of the
warm front should overspread our region generally from the
southwest between ~08Z/Mon and 12Z/Mon. Brief MVFR/IFR are possible
with these showers/storms. Note: A S`erly to SW`erly low-level jet
of ~40 knots, at/near 925 mb, is expected to develop over our area
after ~08Z/Mon and result in low-level wind shear at all TAF sites.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and thunderstorms
on Monday through Monday evening and again on Thursday. Southwesterly
wind gusts up to 30 to 35 knots are expected late Monday morning
through early evening, especially west of I-71.

&&

.MARINE...
A front down by the Ohio River and high pressure north of the lake
will allow for northeast flow to become favored on the lake today.
Low pressure developing over the central CONUS will lift the front
back north as a warm front and winds will increase and become
easterly. Winds and waves will be close to Small Craft Advisory
levels this evening into the first part of tonight. The warm front
will be north of the lake for Monday and a cold front will approach
from the west. Offshore flow will be favored and will increase with
the incoming front. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for Monday
with the southwest winds likely exceeding 20 kts. The cold front
will cross the lake on Monday evening and winds will shift to the
west and remain elevated in the 15 to 20 kt range and onshore flow
could allow for waves to build over the eastern half of the lake.
High pressure will build in for Tuesday and winds over the lake will
decrease and become variable at 10 kts or less. High pressure will
move east for Wednesday and easterly flow will develop on the lake
as a warm front approaches the lake. The front will pass north of
the lake for Thursday and southeast flow will develop.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sefcovic