136
FXUS61 KCLE 121441
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
941 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track from the Lower Mississippi Valley to
Northwest Ohio tonight. This low will depart to the northeast into
Thursday, dragging a cold front across the region early Thursday
morning. High pressure will return Friday before another low tracks
northeast through the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday.
impacts the Ohio Valley on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast primarily remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. However, confidence has increased that several
hours of freezing rain will produce up to 0.10" of ice
accumulation this afternoon and/or early evening across a larger
portion of northern OH, including metro Cleveland and Akron,
before precip changes to plain rain as low-level WAA increasing
with height causes an elevated melting layer to become surface-
based across the aforementioned areas. The Winter WX Advisory
was expanded accordingly. Please see discussion below for
additional details.

Previous Discussion...A wintry mix is still on track to impact
the region today. The main change with this forecast package was
to upgrade Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa Counties to an Ice Storm
Warning with a quarter inch or more of ice expected. The
heaviest icing will occur this evening with surfaces rapidly
becoming ice covered.

Low pressure will develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley today
and track northeast to near Findlay by midnight and continuing
towards Lake Ontario by Thursday morning. This occurs as shortwave
energy races northeast from Texas while a trough pushing south out
of Canada deepens across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures are
starting off in the 20s across the area this morning. Precipitation
during the daytime hours will be characterized as light as
isentropic ascent in the 925-850mb layer spreads north.
Precipitation type will be tricky today as we lose deeper
moisture during the morning. Some light snow is possible this
morning from Mount Vernon east towards Youngstown before we lose
the deeper moisture. After that a light freezing drizzle or
freezing rain will be possible as we continue to have the
shallow ascent with potentially a lack of ice nuclei in the
cloud. Temperatures are forecast to warm through the day with
southern areas starting to creep above freezing by noon and
expanding north during the afternoon across central and eastern
areas. A light glaze of ice is possible outside of the Winter
Weather Advisory but is expected to be both brief and light
before temperatures warm above freezing and did not feel the
threat of icing was sufficient to expand the Advisory.
Temperatures will be a little slower to warm in Northwest
Pennsylvania and they may hold on to enough deep moisture to
maintain a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain longer.
Temperatures in Northwest Ohio will remain the coldest through
the event and will receive the greatest icing.

Precipitation will increase in intensity late this afternoon
into this evening as the low approaches and forcing ramps up
along a tightly packed baroclinic zone draped across northwest
Ohio. Precipitation will also be enhanced this evening by
entrance region jet dynamics from a 150 knot jet aloft. A
southwest to northeast oriented boundary of snow and sleet
transitioning to freezing rain will pivot northwest this evening
as warm air aloft spreads north until most of northwest Ohio
has primarily freezing rain falling. Snow and sleet
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are still possible in Lucas
County before the ice ramps up. Total qpf amounts for the event
are expected to be around .45 in Northwest Ohio with locally
higher amounts. Locations remaining in the Winter Weather
Advisory may eventually warm above freezing and therefore see a
period of rain tonight, and limit the amount of icing. Locations
within the Ice Storm Warning are forecast to remain below
freezing for the duration of the event, therefore receiving the
highest amounts of ice, along with limited amounts of
snow/sleet. Models over the last 24 hours hours have been
trending gradually upward with the expected amount of ice in the
warning area lending confidence to this placement. Surfaces
will rapidly become slick late this afternoon into this evening
in the Advisory and Warning areas.

As the low tracks across Northwest and North Central Ohio tonight,
winds are expected to be generally less than 15 mph with stronger
winds ahead of the low in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Winds in this area will see southeast gusts to around 30 mph except
along the Erie shoreline in Northwest Pennsylvania where downsloping
winds may gust to 40 mph. Winds become more of a concern in the Ice
Storm Warning area behind the cold front on Thursday where westerly
winds will gust to 30 mph. High temperatures for the near term will
occur overnight with portions of Northeast Ohio surpassing 40
degrees. Temperatures will fall through the day on Thursday into the
mid and upper 20s. Some scattered snow showers will accompany the
front but an overall drying trend is expected with localized
accumulations around an inch for portions of the snowbelt and less
than an inch elsewhere. With the breezy westerly winds on Thursday,
wind chills will fall into the teens by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough axis will cross the area Thursday night, likely
resulting in a brief uptick in lake-enhanced snow showers across NE
OH/NW PA. Additional snow accumulations across the higher terrain of
NW PA will be 1 to 2 inches with less than an inch expected across
the remainder of NE OH/NW PA. Any lingering snow showers should
taper off by mid-morning Friday as surface high pressure and a ridge
aloft build east over the region and a brief period of dry weather
is anticipated through early Friday evening. Cold air advection in
addition to clearing skies across the western half of the area will
result in single digit lows Thursday night with lows in the teens
anticipated elsewhere. Wind chills may drop to near or slightly
below zero late Thursday night into Friday morning. Expect highs in
the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday.

An impactful system will begin to influence the area starting Friday
night with a warm front lifting across the region as a deep trough
tracks east across the Plains. Isentropic ascent near and ahead of
the front will result in precipitation chances increasing across
western zones Friday night and expanding across the remainder of the
CWA by Saturday morning. Precip will likely start off as snow
(perhaps moderate at times) Friday night before transitioning to a
rain/snow mix across most of the area Saturday morning and rain by
Saturday afternoon. A deepening surface low over the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys will lift northeast into the region or the central
Appalachians Saturday night and cold air advection on the back side
of the low will allow precip to transition to snow towards the end
of the period.

While there`s still uncertainty in precipitation onset/transition
timing and the overall track of the low, moist return flow on the
back side of the upper ridge and possibly a weak LLJ over portions
of the area will likely result in periods of moderate (to possibly
heavy) precipitation rates and quite a bit of QPF. By the end of the
short term period, QPF will likely exceed an inch and possibly even
approach an inch and a half, most of which will be from rainfall
Saturday afternoon and evening. Flooding due to excessive runoff and
ice jams is certainly a concern Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night and there is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across far
southern zones with a Marginal Risk across the majority of the
remainder of the area. The risk of flooding is slightly lower across
NW OH where QPF due to rainfall will likely remain under an inch. As
if the threat of flooding wasn`t enough, there`s still potential for
a few inches of snowfall (possibly advisory amounts) before precip
transitions to rain Saturday afternoon with several more inches of
snow possible starting Saturday night as moderate to heavy precip
transitions to snow. Still far too much spread in the track of the
low/timing of the arrival of colder temperatures Saturday night to
get specific with snowfall totals, but impactful snow accumulations
remain possible late Saturday into Sunday (see the long term
discussion for details for Sunday).

Lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s Friday night before warm
air advection allows temps to climb into the mid 30s to possibly
lower 40s Saturday. Saturday night`s lows will likely dip into the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As mentioned in the short term discussion, there`s still some
uncertainty in the exact track of the aforementioned surface low as
it moves into to the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic. Either way, the
local area will be on the back/cold side of the low Sunday with
moist mid-level return flow likely persisting through at least
Sunday morning before the upper trough axis crosses the CWA Sunday
afternoon or evening. Moderate to periodically heavy snowfall rates
remain possible Sunday morning and possibly into Sunday afternoon
and additional (possibly impactful) snow accumulations are possible.
The tight pressure gradient may result in breeze northwest winds and
blowing snow may exasperate impacts. Stay tuned for updates on this
system.

Scattered lake effect/enhanced snow showers downwind from both Lake
Erie and Lake Michigan may persist through Sunday with the best
chance of snow across the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA Sunday
night into early Monday. Weak surface high pressure may attempt to
build into the region Monday into Tuesday, which could allow any
remaining precip to diminish.

Sunday`s highs will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, but much
colder air will arrive Sunday night into early next week. Expect
highs in the teens Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows in the
single digits expected Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures
may dip close to zero degrees Monday night. It will remain breezy
Sunday night and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero (or colder)
are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Aviation conditions will deteriorate through the TAF period,
as mixed precipitation arrives and conditions lower to IFR
this afternoon through tonight. The terminals are starting off
VFR this morning with ceilings lowering to MVFR between 14-18Z.
Light snow is starting to develop across west central Ohio and
this could reach CAK, YNG, or ERI after 17Z. Beyond that time
we will lose moisture aloft and see patchy drizzle or freezing
drizzle/rain for a brief window this afternoon. Temperatures
will warm quickly across north central and northeast Ohio with
these terminals transitioning to rain before the heavier
precipitation arrives tonight.

Low pressure is forecast to track northeast from the lower
Mississippi Valley and light precipitation will increase in
coverage during the 18-21Z window. This is likely to begin at
TOL/ERI as snow while other terminals in North Central and
Northeast Ohio could see brief sleet or freezing rain that will
quickly transition to rain as temperatures climb above freezing
this afternoon. FDY will hold with freezing rain for several
hours and TOL will also transition over to freezing rain this
evening. Freezing rain could be moderate in the 00-03 window
with icing and slick conditions expected. A period of icing is
also expected at ERI before transitioning to rain after 00Z. As
the precipitation become more widespread and the warm front
lifts north ahead of the approaching low pressure system,
widespread IFR conditions will develop across the area between
18-22Z. Low IFR is also likely after 00Z with ceilings down to
300 feet and mist at the surface restricting visibilities to IFR
at times.

Northeast winds range from 7-14 knots and are highest in
Northwest Ohio this morning where some sites are starting to
gust to around 20 knots. Winds will veer to easterly for
terminals east of I-71 today and increase to 10-14 knots. As
low pressure reaches northwest Ohio this evening, winds ahead of
the low will become southeasterly. Winds will increase at ERI
with gusts of 30-35 knots possible this evening. Before winds
increase, could see a brief window of low level wind sheer at
terminals in northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Initially have only included the wind sheer at ERI before the
winds really pick up with 40 knots around 2K FEET. Winds in NW
Ohio may see winds shift to the northwest towards the end of the
period behind the low pressure system.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected to linger with scattered snow
showers across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
Thursday and Thursday night. Non-VFR is expected to return in
widespread rain and/or snow Saturday and all snow on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions will develop today and persist through
the next several days. Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots will develop
over the lake by mid to late morning before shifting to the
southeast as low pressure lifts northeast into the region. Winds
over most of the lake may diminish below 20 knots as the low lifts
across the eastern basin this evening into tonight, but downsloping
off of higher terrain in Erie County, PA will result in southeast
winds of 25 to 30 knots in the nearshore zones east of Conneaut, OH.
Winds quickly shift to the west/southwest behind the low Thursday
morning and increase to 20 to 30 knots east of the Islands by late
morning. Winds peak in the eastern basin Thursday afternoon, but
westerly winds 15 to 25 knots will persist over the entire lake
through early Friday morning. Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots are
expected into Friday afternoon before flow becomes more
southeasterly ahead of an approaching warm front Saturday night and
southerly behind the warm front on Saturday. Low pressure will lift
northeast from the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
Saturday night and winds will likely shift to the north/northwest
and increase above 20 knots behind the low early Sunday morning
through Sunday night.

Most of Lake Erie remains ice covered and waves will be limited in
ice-free areas. Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended
until further notice due to extensive ice cover, but may need to
keep an eye on the water levels in the western basin as
west/southwest winds increase Thursday morning and afternoon. Ice
may break up and/or shift in response to stronger northeast winds
today and as stronger southeast winds develop in the eastern basin
tonight (although the strongest winds will likely occur in areas of
fast ice tonight). Ice will likely break and/or shift due to
stronger winds Thursday and late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ003-006-007.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ008-009-017>019-027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     this evening for OHZ010>014-020>023-029>031-036-037-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EST tonight for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15