072
FXUS61 KCLE 020930
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
530 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build northeast into the area
today, but a weak surface trough just to the north will swing
through tonight and keep this system south. This trough will
remain as a boundary across the area on Thursday before high
pressure builds in from the north. High pressure will shift east
for Friday and a warm front will move through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 AM Update...
Fog, with some patchy dense fog, has developed over Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning. Have updated the
forecast to capture this fog and have a Special Weather
Statement until 9 AM.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will try to enter from the southwest today.
However, a minor trough will move through the Great Lakes region
and the surface high may only truly enter the southern portion
of the forecast area. Regardless, the air mass will be
considerably drier than recent days with dew points in the 60s,
which will both allow for more comfortable conditions but will
also limit any rain chances with the trough passing to the
north. There could be a couple of glancing showers in NW PA with
the trough tonight, but any rainfall would be both brief and
light. For Thursday, a boundary will be stretched across the
forecast area and an upper trough will dip south from Canada
into the eastern Great Lakes region. Overall, west to northwest
flow with dew points in the 60s does not spark excitement for
thunderstorms. However, getting some synoptic support into the
region should allow for some isolated activity along this
boundary for Thursday afternoon. Temperatures through the
period will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Thursday night into Friday, high pressure will build south
into the region and clear out any convective activity. As the
surface high shifts east, a warm front will enter on Friday as
the upper ridge axis approaches from the west. This feature
could pop a couple of isolated storms with just enough lift and
temperatures getting close to convective temperatures.
Otherwise, the ridge roars in and squashes any remaining
convection chances for the Independence Day holiday and into
Saturday with large subsidence present over the region.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, starting
with 80s before some spots seeing 90 degrees for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday continues to be the favorite for hot and stormy weather
for the long term forecast period. However, the trend is that
the next system is slowing down and there may be more storm
coverage on Monday. For Sunday, the area will continue to be in
the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system with some
better moisture advecting into the region. High temperatures
should hit 90 degrees with dew points approaching the 70 degree
mark. Even with the surface front and upper trough delayed until
Monday, there should be diurnally-driven storm activity with
good scattered coverage across the area. For Monday, the upper
trough and surface front will move through the area and allow
for some more organized storm activity and have 50-60 PoPs for
the area. Temperatures will be tapered down with just 80s in the
area, given convection and clouds in the region. For Tuesday and
beyond, there is disparity on the evolution of this early week
system with some guidance kicking it out of the region quickly
and others slowing it down and allowing for continued rain and
storm chances. Believe the answer may be in between and will
have rain chances in the forecast for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Widespread VFR conditions is expected to persist for most
terminals through this entire TAF period as high pressure
influences the area. The exception to this is KCAK and KYNG
which may see a brief period of MVFR visibilities due to patchy
fog this morning, but this should not become dense so not
expecting visibilities lower than 4SM. By 12Z, all fog should
lift and VFR conditions should return to those terminals.

Light and variable winds will be dominant through much of the
TAF period given overall weak flow across the area. This
afternoon, lakeshore and eastern terminals will likely see a
shift to northerly winds of 5-10 knots as a lake breeze
develops, but these winds will quickly return to light and
variable after 00Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected
through Saturday. Non-VFR may return in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, particularly across the western half of
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions are expected across Lake Erie through the
weekend as high pressure remains the primary driver of weather
across the region. Winds of 5-10 knots will rotate around the
high throughout the week, although there is expected to be a
weak cold front that sags south across the lake on Thursday
night into Friday. This will shift winds briefly to have a more
northerly component and pose the greatest chance of waves up to
2 feet across nearshore waters. No marine headlines are
anticipated through the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04