566
FXUS61 KCLE 111509
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1007 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level trough is currently situated over the east coast
and will persist through this evening. Weak ridging will build into
the region late Tuesday followed by a cold front Wednesday evening.
High pressure builds into the region Thursday with low pressure
moving through late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

10:06 AM EST Update...

Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. However, adjusted POP`s through this early afternoon
in order to account for latest trends in radar data and RGEM
forecast guidance related to the ongoing lake-effect precip (LEP).
The Winter WX Advisory for Summit County was allowed to expire at 10
AM EST this morning, while the remainder of the Winter WX Advisory
and Lake-Effect Snow Warning are in effect until 1 PM this
afternoon. LEP will primarily be in the form of graupel or snow,
heavy at times, as forecast soundings from today`s 12Z run of the
HRRR indicate the DGZ will likely remain cloudy and about 1 km
thick, and low-level convergence along the major axes of LEP bands
will yield moderate to strong and maximized ascent at lake-effect
cloud temperatures in the 8C below zero to 12C below zero range. In
addition, the mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold air
over/downwind of ~9C Lake Erie is expected to coincide with abundant
and deep low-level moisture on the synoptic-scale and at least
moderate lake-induced instability through this very early afternoon.
Additional snow accumulations are expected to be one inch or less
outside the winter WX alerts and 1 to 3 inches in the most
persistent LEP in the winter WX alerts through this early afternoon.
As a ridge at the surface and aloft continues to build from the west
and eventually begins cresting E`ward across our region, the mean
low-level flow will back from WNW`erly to SW`erly by this early
evening, which will allow lingering LEP to shift generally N`ward
and become located offshore our CWA by this early evening. During
this afternoon through early evening, the intensity of LEP should
lessen as synoptic-scale low-level dry air advection and a lowering
subsidence inversion cause lake-induced CAPE to wane.
Note: lake-effect snow/graupel should mix with or change to
rain along and immediately inland from ~9C Lake Erie this
afternoon and early evening due to continued onshore surface
flow through most of the afternoon and diurnal warming of the
boundary layer allowing a surface-based melting layer to develop
and deepen. Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion from 3:26 AM EDT...

Lake effect snow continues across northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania this morning as a largely disorganized band persists.
There`s been stronger bands across Geauga County and Erie/Crawford
Counties in Pennsylvania dropping visibilities to around a mile to
two miles. Other areas outside of the stronger portions of the band
have been dropping to around 3 miles. Through this evening,
additional snowfall totals across northwest Pennsylvania will be
between 5-8 inches in the far eastern portions of the county and
decrease further west. In Ohio, the highest accumulations will be
across Geauga County with 2-4 inches expected. This will need to be
an area to watch as it progresses this morning. There`s potential
with the ridge building in to the southwest and the winds backing
that it could enhance this band. Additionally, there could be
elevated convergence in this area and the band can strength to bring
some moderate to heavy snowfall. This could potentially call for an
upgrade in headlines for, at a minimum, Geauga County and will need
to continue to monitor as this develops. At this time, there won`t
be any headline changes.

As the aforementioned ridge builds in from the southwest, it will
shift the lake effect bands off-shore by Wednesday morning. Another
low pressure system and shortwave feature will enter the region
which will bring the lake effect band back onshore by midday
Wednesday. Temperatures will warm as a warm front moves through
allowing for precipitation to fall as a rain/snow mix. Regarding
temperatures, they will begin to recover from the coldest days of
the year so far. Highs today will be mid 30s and rise into the mid
40s on Wednesday. Morning lows on Wednesday will be in the upper
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The low pressure system will move north of the region Wednesday
night dragging a cold front with it across the area. Lake effect
rain showers will continue through Thursday morning as there will
still be lingering moisture and convergence across far northeastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. As a ridge builds into the
region and surface high moves to the south, the moisture fueling the
lake effect bands will end and drier weather is expected Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures will begin to warm as well with highs
climbing into the upper 40s and low 50s by Friday. Overnight lows
will warm as well as the high builds in from the west. Lows will be
climb above freezing for the western counties with the eastern half
staying below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue through Saturday as the high builds off
to the east. An upper level trough will start to deepen over central
Canada that will bring unsettled weather back to the region by
Sunday. A low pressure system will accompany the upper level feature
and sweep a cold front across the region on Sunday bringing
widespread rain. Temperatures in the long term will warm to be above
average before cooling back down to around average behind the cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Will still be dealing with fluctuating conditions in and out of
snow showers for at least the first few hours for primarily YNG
and ERI, but CLE/CAK get into the mix as well this morning.
Westerly winds gusting 25-35mph will ultimately become
southwesterly at the same velocity through much of the TAF
period. In heavier snow showers, expect IFR ceilings and
visibilities, but will not be out of the question to improve to
VFR for periods of time as well. Once the snow showers end and
the lake effect event concludes, VFR will be expected for the
duration of the TAF after that.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions will continue in
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with lake effect
showers returning on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions remain on the hazardous side with continuing Small
Craft Advisories, a Gale Warning tonight, and a Low Water Advisory.
Northwest winds 20-30kts become southwesterly 25-35kts tonight, and
then back to west northwesterly behind a cold front Wednesday into
Wednesday night diminishing to 20-25kts. Wave heights east of the
islands during this period through Wednesday night will run anywhere
from 6-12ft in the open waters, and 4-8ft in the nearshore zones.
West of the islands, wave heights will be a bit more variable, but
still running 2-5ft. Winds will finally come down to around 10kts
for Friday and wave heights down to 1-2ft. Winds become offshore
around 10-20kts Saturday and increasing wave heights away from shore
to 1-3ft. Winds look to increase once again beyond Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ011>014-022-023-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>145.
     Low Water Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ146>149.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday for
     LEZ146>149-166>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26