186
FXUS61 KCLE 030545
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes region will remain in place
through Monday. This system will get absorbed by a larger surface
high over eastern Canada on Tuesday and continue to influence the
local weather through at least Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet weather continues to be expected through Monday with high
pressure over the region and a very weak upper ridge entering the
region. Most of the weather influence over the next 36 hours will be
daily lake breezes/northeast flow and a land breeze at night that
will shift winds throughout the period. Today will feature high
temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s with slightly warmer into the
80s on Monday with some return flow starting to enter the region.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s with 60s near the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period has trended to a fairly uneventful
and quiet period. The high pressure system influencing the region
this weekend will get absorbed by a larger high pressure system in
Canada, which will continue to influence the local weather through
Wednesday night. This system will be slow to exit east, as it is
becoming more likely that a low pressure system will form off the
East Coast, blocking the surface high from departing. This will also
mean that better moisture will be slower to return to the region and
limit the potential for diurnally-driven convection. This is
especially true as upper level flow will be largely non-existant
with a decaying upper trough slowing to the west and therefore,
there is not a feature to organize rain or storms. Temperatures will
slightly increase into the mid 80s during the period. Overnight lows
will also creep up with 60s favored for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast will go another cycle with being fairly quiet
for the end of the week. High pressure to the east will continue to
influence the area for at least Thursday. There are hints that this
system will get forced fully east with a low pressure system
developing over the Carolinas for the weekend, but this system will
stay well away from the area. However, some better moisture will
start flowing into the region and there could be some afternoon,
diurnally-driven rain chances, but the probability is very low at
this time, especially as upper level flow remains very weak and
not supportive for organized storms. Temperatures will continue to
trend upward through the 80s and higher dew points may allow for
some 90s heat index values by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure persists with VFR conditions continuing through
the TAF period. Light winds less than 5 knots overnight tonight
will return northeasterly and increase to 8-10 knots late this
morning through this evening. More northerly flow is likely
again this afternoon at KCLE and KERI.

Outlook...VFR continues through Tuesday. Non-VFR possible with
isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected to persist across Lake Erie
through early next week under high pressure. Winds will
generally favor a northeasterly component while remaining
between 8-12 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13