702
FXUS61 KCLE 242346
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
746 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface troughing will persist across the area through Tuesday.
High pressure will gradually build east across the region on
Wednesday and remain through Thursday. A weak cold front crosses
the area again on Thursday night with high pressure building
back in over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler temperatures and lake effect rain showers are expected
the next couple days, cloistering the region away from the more
typical late-summer warmth. As an upper-level trough builds into
the Great Lakes region, low-level convergence along a surface
trough will be the focus for isolated rain showers downwind of
Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this
evening.

An uptick in showery activity is expected Monday and Monday
night as deep, cold air aloft becomes entrenched over the Great
Lakes. Steep low-level lapse rates will allow lake effect rain
streaming off of Lake Michigan to impact most of the area Monday
afternoon before becoming more limited to the typical "snowbelt
region" (sorry) of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
However, relative rainfall intensity will actually increase
Monday night, with moderate rainfall rainfall rates as times,
with embedded thunderstorm actually possible; the 12Z NAM shows
lake-induced CAPE (via BUFKIT) exceeding 1000 J/kg Mon afternoon
through Monday night. QPF amounts of up to around 0.5" may be
expected in lakeshore counties, including Cuyahoga, Lake,
Geauga, Ashtabula, and Erie PA.

As alluded to before, temperatures will be below normal, with
Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Overnight
lows will be downright chilly with temperatures in the upper 40s
to low 50s. Toledo will be within a few degrees of the record
temperature (see climate section for more details).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
It will feel like deja vu as we takes Monday`s weather forecast
and nearly copy it over to Tuesday with cooler temperatures and
isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers are expected
areawide. Light, scattered lake effect rain showers continue in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday night into
Wednesday, gradually dwindling as high pressure takes a hold of
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning is likely to be the coldest temperatures of
the forecast period, with record lows forecast at Toledo (within
about 5-10 degrees at other climate sites).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure shifts eastward on Thursday, with return southwest
flow bringing high temperatures back into the mid 70s. A weak
cold front swings through Thursday night, with light lake effect
rain showers once again Thursday night into Friday morning,
primarily downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. High pressure returns to the Great Lakes region
over the weekend, with temperatures remaining below normal
(highs in the mid 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A surface trough will slowly drift southeast across the region
overnight tonight through the first half of the week. High
pressure will build into the west, then to the south of the
region at the same time. This will allow for persistent west to
northwesterly flow across the region for the TAF period and the
first half of the week. Generally TAFs will be VFR with ceilings
around 090-100 and winds out of the west-northwest at 5-10
knots.

As the surface trough approaches there will potential for lake
effect rain showers, primarily across northeastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania. There will be a short window of low
confidence showers tonight after 02Z into Monday morning for
KCLE and KERI. Lake effect showers will return Monday evening
with KCLE and KERI having the highest confidence in seeing
showers. There`s lower potential for the rest of the terminals
to see showers and opted for a PROB30 group for that time frame.
Within showers, MVFR conditions are possible, but should
rebound once showers pass.

Outlook...Lake effect rain showers are expected through
Wednesday, primarily across the snow belt from KCLE to KERI with
non-VFR conditions possible. VFR expected through Thursday
evening when a cold front will move through the region with non-
VFR possible within rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 8 PM today to 8 PM EDT
Monday from The Islands to Ripley. A corresponding Beach
Hazards Statement for a high risk of rip currents has been
issued along the lakeshore from Erie County, OH to Erie County,
PA.

A trough lingers over Lake Erie through Tuesday. WSW`erly to W`erly
winds around 10 to 15 knots through this early evening become W`erly
to NW`erly and freshen to around 15 to 20 knots later this evening
through daybreak Monday as nocturnal cooling over surrounding land
allows the trough to strengthen over the lake. Accordingly,
waves of 3 feet or less through this early evening build to as
large as 3 to 5 feet later this evening through tonight.
Largest waves are expected east of The Islands. During the rest
of Monday through Tuesday, W`erly to NW`erly winds around 10 to
15 knots, flirting with 20 knots at times, are expected. As a
result, waves should subside gradually to 1 to 4 feet.

During Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon, a ridge should
affect Lake Erie as the parent high pressure center moves from the
Upper Midwest to Atlantic waters near the Delmarva Peninsula.
Accordingly, NW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots Tuesday night back
to SW`erly on Wednesday and then remain SW`erly around 5 to 15 knots
through Wednesday night. On Thursday, SW`erly winds should freshen
to 10 to nearly 20 knots as the ridge begins to exit SE`ward and a
cold front approaches Lake Erie from the northern Great Lakes.
Waves should trend mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4
footers should develop on Thursday, especially in open U.S.
waters.

The cold front should sweep generally SE`ward across Lake Erie
Thursday evening and be followed by a ridge building from the
northern Great Lakes and vicinity through Friday. The cold front
passage should cause SW`erly winds around 10 to nearly 20 knots to
veer to NW`erly and ease to 10 to 15 knots Thursday evening. On
Friday, NW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should veer gradually to
NE`erly. Waves should trend mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional
4 footers are possible Thursday evening.

Note: waterspouts are expected to accompany bands of lake-effect
cumuliform clouds and rain showers this evening through about midday
Wednesday. The environment should support numerous waterspouts on
Lake Erie late this evening through Monday. Lake-effect thunderstorms
are possible this evening through Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
An anomalously-cold air mass will arrive across the region early
next week. Some sites may reach or exceed their daily record
low temperatures.

Previous Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures...

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
08-26   45(1964)       38(1958)       47(1958)       41(1914)       40(1897)       47(1958)
08-27   48(1969)       36(1946)       49(1963)       44(1914)       43(1969)       47(1954)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ009>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Jaszka
CLIMATE...