503
FXUS61 KCLE 011845
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon.
High pressure will build into the region tonight and Wednesday
behind the cold front. Another cold front will move southeast
across the area on Thursday. High pressure will return for
Friday and then depart to the east coast on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 18Z, the cold front is located from near Findlay to near
Sandusky. As the cold front progresses eastward across the area,
should see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop
along this front, with conditions improving immediately behind it.
Severe weather is unlikely, though brief, heavy rain may be possible
with a very low chance for some gusty winds to 30-40 mph and small
hail. There is decent amount of MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range,
though shear is poor and hodograph profiles actually has negative
SRH (not good for severe storms). A waterspout was reported in the
Sandusky Bay, likely due to the developing storm interacting with
the lake/land interface. A Special Marine Warning was issued, as
well as a special weather statement for the possibility for
landspout-type funnels to occur along the cold front.

Once the cold front is through, it should be relatively quiet
weather through the rest of the near term forecast as high pressure
builds in, with mostly sunny/clear skies, highs in the 80s, lows in
the 60s, and lower humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak, cold front moves southeast across the region on Thursday,
with diurnally-driven isolated showers and thunderstorms expected
mainly during the afternoon/evening, mainly before sunset (so
unlikely to spoil any firework shows). Thursday could be a sneaky,
low-end severe weather threat, as a decent overlap of modest
instability and marginally supportive deep-layer shear is present.
Machine-learning guidance from ENS/GEFS both marginally support a
low-end severe weather as well. High pressure continues to become
further entrenched to the region through the short term period, with
continued nice summer weather. A few diurnally-driven isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday/Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure drifts to the east coast on Saturday, with
temperatures warming into the low 90s on Saturday and Sunday.
Humidity will be on the rise, but heat indices are likely to remain
under 100. Unless there are big changes to the forecast, it`s
unlikely we`ll need a Heat Advisory. Precipitation chances rise to
the 30-50% range Sunday afternoon through Tuesday within the warm
air advection regime.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with primarily VFR
to persist through the TAF period. A brief period of IFR vsbys
in a line of showers and thunderstorms is possible at
MFD/CAK/YNG later this afternoon, associated with a weak cold
front. Lower confidence in coverage at CLE precludes tempo
mention, though will include a brief window of vcts. Otherwise,
only other concern will be pockets of fog developing across the
southeast portion of the area overnight into Wednesday morning,
primarily impacting CAK/YNG.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest ahead of the
cold front, 5 to 10 knots, shifting towards the west to
northwest behind the front, around 10 knots. Winds will become
light overnight, favoring a slight west to northwest direction.
A lake breeze may impact CLE/ERI Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected
through Saturday. Non-VFR may return in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, particularly across the western half of
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine conditions are expected across Lake Erie this
week and into the weekend with the overall flow remaining relatively
light and less than 15 knots. A weak cold front will weak cold front
will drop south across the Lake on Thursday, with northwest winds of
10 to 15 knots possible which could usher in waves of 2 feet and
possibly isolated pockets up to 3 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn