459
FXUS61 KCLE 040601
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
201 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger over the East Coast through the weekend
before drifting east early next week. A cold front associated with a
low pressure system over Quebec will move east Tuesday into Tuesday
night before high pressure returns late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue through this weekend as high pressure
continues to influence the weather across the region. Dry conditions
are expected with sunny skies and light and variable winds.
Temperatures will be above average for this time of year with highs
climbing into the 80s across the entire area. The warmest
temperatures will be across the western counties where temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will fall into the
upper 50s out west and into the low 50s across eastern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to influence the area through Monday
before an upper level trough slowly pushes east into the region. At
the surface, an associated low pressure will move towards Quebec,
moving a cold front east on Tuesday into Tuesday night. With the
passage of this front, widespread showers are expected to occur with
QPF values generally 0.5 inches or less. Some locally higher amounts
are possible, although there is no current concern for flooding
given the ongoing drought and the longer period which the
precipitation will fall over. There is a non-zero chance of thunder
on Tuesday afternoon, but not expecting anything severe at this
time.

Temperatures on Monday will remain above normal as they climb into
the low to mid 80s, but as the front passes on Tuesday temperatures
will be a bit cooler as they only climb into the low to mid 70s.
Overnight lows will gradually cool as well with temperatures
dropping into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday night before cooling
into the mid to upper 40s by Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few lingering showers are possible across the eastern portion of
the CWA Wednesday morning before a Canadian high pressure system
builds east across the region. The return of high pressure will
result in the return to dry conditions once again through Friday.
Given the shift in airmass, much cooler and more seasonable
temperatures are expected through the long term period with highs
climbing into the low to mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday with
slightly warmer temperature in the upper 60s possible Friday.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid 30s to low 40s overnight, with
the coldest temperatures expected across NW PA and far NE OH. Have
opted to keep the potential for front on Wednesday and Thursday
nights given the cold temperatures and relatively light winds
expected during the overnight hours. Will need to continue to
monitor trends to determine how widespread frost may be.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR. May need to add FEW050 for daytime heating hours with the
next issuance, but no ceilings in the forecast. Winds SSE less
than 10kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with rain showers Monday
night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Very quiet marine conditions will persist through the weekend as
high pressure drifts deeper into the Mid Atlantic and eventually
offshore by Sunday afternoon. This will lead to S winds
averaging 5-15 knots, although some afternoon lake breezes will
shift nearshore winds to N for a few hours. S to SW winds
averaging 5-15 knots will continue through Monday, but winds
will turn more WSW and increase to 10-15 knots Monday night and
Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the western Great
Lakes. This cold front looks to cross the lake by Tuesday
evening, with N winds of 15-25 knots behind it Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This will build wave heights to 3 to 5 feet, so
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed at that time for
the combination of winds and waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Garuckas