063
FXUS61 KCLE 220040
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
840 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in place through Saturday, ahead of a strong cold
front Saturday night. Much cooler again for the first half of
next week with lake effect showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Updated the forecast to slow down the clearing trend this
evening. Clearing is working southwest across Lake Erie while
additional cloud cover still extends northeast towards Erie PA
and into southwest New York. Expecting clouds to fill back in
where partial clearing has occurred across NE Ohio along the
inverted trough axis.

Previous discussion...Another extension of the low end POPs
and drizzle in the northeasterly flow through the late afternoon
hours as we try to get the low level moisture to erode out. The
departure of Hurricane Erin to the east northeast should result
in gradual easing of the northeast winds that are on the gusty
side over Lake Erie. A surface trough just east of the CWA
lingers as well, but overall, weak high pressure builds into the
southern Great Lakes tonight through Friday, finally with
patchy clearing after a couple days of nearly straight overcast
conditions. With a little bit better insolation occurring
Friday, do finally expect an increase in the temperatures with
some lower 80s returning to the fold. In the meantime, a deep
upper low will push from the Canadian prairies in northern
Ontario with a surface low pressure system along with it, and
the approach of a strong cold front from the northwest. This
will be a short term forecast period feature, but it should be
about halfway through the Great Lakes by Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low and surface low over northern Ontario will begin an
occlusion process Saturday, which should slightly slow the forward
speed of the cold front as it pushes towards the CWA, and also make
it subject to frontolytic action. It will still be a significant
airmass changing event upon passage, but precipitation chances will
likely remain on the lower side as it moves through, with the best
chances over the eastern half of the CWA. Thunder threat is lower
but non-zero for its Saturday night timing. Sharp 850mb temperature
gradient behind the cold front, and after low to mid 80s Saturday in
the warmest of the 7 day forecast, temperatures back into the 70s
Sunday. Brief clearing behind the cold front Sunday, but the low
level wind flows will begin to set up off Lake Erie Sunday night for
lake effect cloud cover and showers to begin given the significant
temperature gradient between the lake surface water temperatures and
the 850mb temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect showers off and on are expected from Monday through at
least Tuesday night, possibly into early Wednesday. A reinforcing
trough axis within the broad cyclonic flow comes through Monday.
Away from the lake effect areas should see patchy clearing but with
cold pool cumulus formation. Monday and Tuesday continue to be
slated as the coolest days of the forecast with most locations
struggling to get out of the 60s for high temperatures. Tuesday
night, better clearing potential in this cooler airmass will result
in widespread 40s away from the lakeshore. Waterspouts on the lake
should be expected in the long term as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Abundant cloud cover that has been over the region will begin to
break up tonight. Clearing is spreading south across Lake Erie
while more cloud upstream in NW Pennsylvania may result in
clouds filling back in across NE Ohio. Additional cloud will
linger downwind of Lake Erie in NW Ohio but try to become
scattered overnight. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy
across the area towards morning and thicken some with daytime
heating. An inverted trough axis remains across NE Ohio into
Friday before high pressure strengthens from the north during
the afternoon. Most areas will be VFR to MVFR overnight,
although some reduced visibilities may develop towards morning.
These will be primarily MVFR for inland terminals and possibly
IFR for a brief window between 10-13Z.

Winds will be northeast or east at 10 knots or less. ERI will
briefly see winds shift around to the southeast with a land
breeze between 06-16Z.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon through this Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement are in
effect until 8 PM this evening from Conneaut to Ripley and until
11 PM EDT this evening from Reno Beach to Conneaut. A lingering
trough over Lake Erie finally exits generally E`ward tonight as
a ridge builds from the northwestern Great Lakes through Friday.
Accordingly, NE`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots through this
early evening become variable around 5 to 15 knots later this
evening through early Friday morning, as a weakening MSLP
gradient accompanies the building ridge. Winds then trend
onshore around 5 to 10 knots late Friday morning through early
evening as the MSLP gradient weakens further and a lake breeze
develops. Lingering waves as large as 3 to 6 feet, especially
east of The Islands, will subside to 3 feet or less by late this
evening and then to 2 feet or less by daybreak Friday.

The ridge exits toward the New England to Mid-Atlantic seaboard
Friday night through Saturday, which will allow a warm front to
sweep N`ward across Lake Erie Friday night. Winds become SE`erly
around 5 to 10 knots ahead of the front and then veer to S`erly
to SW`erly behind the front as waves remain 2 feet or less. On
Saturday, S`erly to SW`erly winds freshen to around 5 to 15
knots with waves of 3 feet or less. A cold front should sweep
E`ward across Lake Erie Saturday night through Sunday morning
and cause SW`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots to veer to W`erly
as waves remain 3 feet or less. Behind the front, a trough
lingers over Lake Erie through this Tuesday as winds vary
between SW`erly and NW`erly. These winds will mainly be 10 to 15
knots, but should flirt with 20 knots at times on Monday into
Tuesday morning. Waves should build to 2 to 4 feet with
occasional 5 footers, especially east of The Islands. Will
continue to monitor forecast trends for the eventual need for a
Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ007-009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ143>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...10/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Jaszka