954
FXUS61 KCLE 290546
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes made to the forecast with this morning update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dreary Wednesday in store for the area as widespread rain showers
move northeast across the area. No thunder expected, but localized
heavy rainfall across southeastern counties possible.

2) Below average temperatures arrive today and stick around through
the weekend. Low confidence lake enhanced rain showers possible and
the potential for frost/freeze returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Tonight, a cold front has pushed east of the area, stalling just
west of the Appalachians. This boundary is providing a path for a
low developing over the Tennessee Valley which is expected to track
northeast towards New England today. Given the placement of this
low, the entire CWA is expected to remain on the cold side of the
low, ultimately limiting any instability potential today for
thunderstorms to occur. Cannot rule out a few rumbles across the
southeastern tier of counties, but confidence is too low to include
in the forecast at this point. However, a potent shortwave pushing
east will enhance synoptic support for widespread rain showers to
occur across the CWA beginning this morning and lingering for much
of today. The axis of highest rainfall totals will be across the
southeastern tier of counties where up to 1" of rainfall is
possible. Not expecting any flooding concerns at this point, but
will monitor conditions as the day progresses. These showers should
taper from west to east this evening into the early overnight hours
as the aforementioned low and upper level support drift east.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
On Thursday and Friday, a surface trough will linger over the area,
allowing for a much cooler Canadian airmass to begin to usher in
across the area. This will ultimately lead to much cooler, below
average temperatures through Friday with highs in the low to mid 50s
and overnight lows dropping into the 30s. As this colder airmass
pushes south over warming lakes, there is a potential for enough
lake induced instability to develop to result in isolated light rain
showers across the area. Confidence remains low at this point,
especially in the location of any of these showers. Unfortunately,
with this set-up, much of Thursday and Friday will be at least
partly cloudy, lending to some cold and dreary days. On Saturday, a
high pressure system will begin to build southeast across the area
allowing for any shower potential to diminish and some clearing in
sky coverage. Temperatures however will remain below normal on
Saturday, slightly warming on Sunday into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Sunday will mark the transition towards gradual warming once again
towards normal. With the overnight lows expected to dip into the low
to mid 30s, will have to continue to monitor for the potential of
frost/freeze, especially on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR on the font end of the TAF, but low pressure moving
northeastward brings widespread showers/rain to the region after
approximately 10Z this morning. Expect ceilings to lower to
MVFR/IFR, depending on terminal, in precipitation that will
last 4 to 8 hours for the most part. Winds to increase slightly
this afternoon as low pressure strengthens as it nears the
region, with gusts to 20kts possible this afternoon. Ceilings
that were IFR should lift to MVFR late in the TAF period as
precipitation exits to the northeast.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves across Lake Erie have continued to subside this
afternoon into the evening and drop below Small Craft criteria.
Overnight, winds will become light at less than 10 knots across the
lake and veer to be out of the north. By tomorrow evening, winds
will increase slightly to 10-15 knots out of the north-northwest.
Waves will build as a response to around 3 feet in the near shore
with the on shore winds. Through the end of the week, quiet marine
conditions are expected with winds varying between north to
northwest at 5-10 knots and waves being less than 3 feet. Over the
weekend, winds should back to be out of the west at 10-20 knots as
high pressure moves to the south of the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...23