497
FXUS61 KCLE 202356
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
656 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front continues to drift northward through our
region through this early evening. Otherwise a high pressure
ridge continues to exit generally eastward as a cold front
approaches from the western Great Lakes and vicinity. The cold
front should sweep eastward through northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania late Friday morning through evening and will be
followed by a ridge building from the Upper Midwest and vicinity
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft is expected through Friday night as
embedded shortwave trough axes move generally E`ward or SE`ward
over our region. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave
trough axes will contribute to continued partly to mostly cloudy
sky over our area. At the surface, a weak warm front was
located near the OH shore of Lake Erie and appeared to extend
generally E`ward into southern Erie County PA at 2:25 PM EST.
This front will continue moving generally N`ward and should
exit the rest of our CWA by sunset this evening. Otherwise, a
high pressure ridge continues to exit E`ward before a cold front
sweeps E`ward through northern OH and NW PA late Friday morning
through evening. Behind the cold front, a ridge builds from the
Upper Midwest and vicinity through daybreak Saturday.

Abundant cloud cover and low-level WAA behind the warm front
and ahead of the cold front should be accompanied by lows
reaching mainly the mid 30`s to mid 40`s around daybreak Friday.
Very weak or calm surface winds and sufficient humidity at/near
the surface may allow stratus to expand downward to the surface
via nocturnal cooling and yield at least patchy fog formation
after midnight tonight and through daybreak Friday, especially
from roughly I-86 at the NY/PA line to Marion, OH and points
south in our CWA. A few peeks of sunshine and continued low-level
WAA ahead of the cold front should allow Friday`s daytime highs
to reach the upper 40`s to mid 50`s. Any fog will dissipate by
late morning, following the onset of diurnal convective mixing
of the boundary layer. For Friday night, low-level CAA behind
the cold front should allow lows to reach mainly the lower to
upper 30`s around daybreak Saturday.

Dry weather is expected to persist for the time being as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the departing surface ridge
and a rather dry atmospheric column at/near 5kft to 8kft MSL
contributes to a dry warm front passage. However, after midnight
tonight, isolated rain showers are possible in northern OH,
roughly along and south of the U.S. Route 30 corridor. Then on
Friday into Friday night, additional isolated to scattered rain
showers should occur, especially in roughly the southern-half of
our CWA. Precip overnight tonight through Friday night will be
associated with at least one of the following: moist isentropic
ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes; low-level frontogenetical
deformation aloft and associated moist ascent over/near the OH
Valley given the expected evolution of the weather pattern at
the surface and aloft over the Midwest, Great Lakes, and
vicinity; convergence/moist ascent along the cold front. Precip
associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front is still
expected to begin to exit our region generally from west to east
Friday evening and complete its exit from our CWA by daybreak
Saturday. Sufficient CAA at the surface and aloft may allow rain
to mix with or change to wet snow before precip ends, especially
in NW PA. Any snow accumulations are expected to be a trace.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
During this time period, an amplifying ridge aloft should build
from the southern Great Plains and eventually the central and
northern Plains as well. At the surface, the ridge should
continue to affect our region as the embedded high pressure
center moves from the western Great Lakes to the central
Appalachians. Dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the ridge. Intervals of sunshine amidst continued
low-level CAA should be accompanied by late afternoon highs in
the 40`s on Saturday. Given the projected track of the surface
high pressure center, low-level WAA should impact our region
Saturday night through Sunday night and allow a rather
moisture-starved warm front to sweep NE`ward through our CWA
Saturday night. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 20`s
to mid 30`s during the predawn hours of Sunday morning. A mainly
clear to partly cloudy sky, overall, should contribute to late
afternoon highs in the upper 40`s to mid 50`s on Sunday. During
Sunday night, lows should reach mainly the lower 30`s to lower
40`s around daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Monday, the aforementioned ridge aloft should crest E`ward
over our region as the surface portion of the ridge exits
E`ward. Current odds now favor fair weather on Monday. Late
afternoon highs should reach the upper 40`s to mid 50`s. During
Monday night through Thanksgiving, cyclonic flow aloft and
embedded shortwave troughs should impact the Lake Erie region,
Upper OH Valley, and vicinity. This flow aloft should be mainly
SW`erly to W`erly, but should shift to NW`erly on Thanksgiving,
when the axis of a particularly-strong shortwave trough should move
E`ward through our area. At the surface, net troughing should impact
our region Monday night through Thanksgiving. In addition, a cold
front associated with a rather strong shortwave trough should sweep
generally E`ward through our CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30`s to mid 40`s
around daybreak Tuesday and be followed by daytime highs in the
50`s as low-level WAA continues in our region. Lows should reach
mainly the upper 30`s to mid 40`s overnight Tuesday night and
be followed by daytime highs in the upper 40`s to lower 50`s on
Wednesday. The warmest highs on Wednesday should occur farther
east in our CWA, prior to the cold front passage. CAA at the
surface and aloft should occur in earnest behind the cold front.
This CAA regime should contribute to lows reaching mainly the
mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak Thanksgiving morning
and daytime highs reaching only the mid 30`s to lower 40`s for
the holiday.

Periods of showers are expected Monday night through
Thanksgiving due, in part to the following: moist isentropic
ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes; convergence and moist
ascent along surface trough axes and the cold front. Behind the
cold front, a sufficiently-cold/moist mean low-level flow over
and downwind of ~8C Lake Erie should become established and
support lake-effect precip generation Wednesday through Thanksgiving,
which has been a signal in NWP model guidance for at least the
past 48-hours. The direction of the mean low-level flow remains
highly uncertain, but the latest available runs of the GEM and
ECMWF models, which are typically quite accurate and reliable,
suggest the mean low-level flow will primarily be W`erly.
Something to monitor closely in the coming days. Given expected
evolution of the atmospheric column, including the vertical
profile of wet-bulb temperature, rain should be the predominant
precip type Monday night through Wednesday. However, rain may
mix with wet snow at times, especially Monday night into Tuesday
morning in interior NW PA. CAA at the surface and aloft should
contribute to rain mixing with or changing to snow in a general
west to east manner Wednesday night through Thanksgiving.
Accumulating snow is possible. While it is way too soon to
discuss specific snow amounts, we will continue to closely
monitor trends in deterministic models and ensemble forecast
systems, including probabilistic forecasts from NBM, over the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Everyone except for ERI is observing stratus right now, with
much of the area reporting MVFR ceilings save for some lingering
VFR in Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Am expecting any lingering
VFR to trend to MVFR this evening. Otherwise, continued low-
level moisture transport ahead of a weak cold front approaching
from the northwest is expected to lead to the stratus lowering
overnight tonight, with much of the area expected to see IFR to
low MVFR ceilings overnight tonight into Friday morning. Have
IFR or lower conditions included in all TAFs except for CLE,
where there is a 30-50% risk, and ERI, where the risk is <30%. A
weak but persistent downslope component to the surface winds is
what lowers confidence in IFR at CLE and ERI. The more elevated
and prone sites, such as FDY, MFD, CAK, and YNG have the
greatest potential for LIFR ceilings to go along with more
substantial vsby reductions to IFR or lower late tonight into
Friday morning. The lowest ceilings and vsby are generally
expected between 6-15z Friday. Gradual improvement to MVFR
across the board is expected late Friday morning or afternoon,
with potential for light rain spreading towards southern
terminals (such as FDY, MFD and CAK) towards Friday evening.

Mainly south winds at <7kt tonight shift more westerly through
the day Friday at 3 to 8kt.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings due to stratus linger Friday night.
VFR is then favored Saturday through Monday, though will need to
monitor how quickly the stratus clears into the weekend. Non-VFR
in rain showers possible Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The general weather pattern will favor several wind shifts over Lake
Erie due to the passage of frontal boundaries. Winds are southerly 5
to 10 knots this afternoon/evening but will become southwesterly 10
to 20 knots overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Waves will
start out 1 to 2 feet but build late tonight 2 to 4 feet in the open
water for a brief period. Winds will continue southwesterly 10 to 15
knots on Friday becoming westerly later in the day. Waves on Friday
will be 1 to 3 feet. Northerly winds will return behind a weak cold
front Friday night 10 to 15 knots and continue into Saturday with
waves of 1 to 3 feet. Winds will become southwesterly Saturday night
and increase 10 to 15 knots ahead of another approaching cold front.
Southwest winds will further increase 15 to 20 knots on Sunday with
waves 2 to 5 feet. Headlines are not expected through Saturday, but
Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Sunday. High pressure builds
back in Sunday night into Monday with lighter winds and decreasing
waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...77