402
FXUS61 KCLE 221714
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
114 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge affects our region through Thursday night as the ridge
axis moves from the western Great Lakes to the Canadian Maritimes.
On Friday, a warm front should sweep northward into our region
during the morning and afternoon before stalling near the southern
shore of Lake Erie as a low moves eastward from the Upper
Mississippi Valley toward western Lake Erie. During Friday
evening through Friday night, a cold front should sweep
southeastward across our region as the aforementioned low moves
east-northeastward across Lake Erie and toward Lake Ontario.
Behind the cold front, a ridge should build gradually from the
northern Great Lakes and vicinity through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:30 AM Update:
The forecast is on track. Made minor tweaks to temperatures and
dew points through this afternoon based on observed trends and
rapid update guidance. The main forecast concern for this period
will be the potential need for some POPs in Northwest OH on
Wednesday with a developing warm front...otherwise, "big bubble,
no trouble" with high pressure in control.

Previous Discussion:
Aloft, a shortwave ridge axis moves E`ward from the Upper
Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes and western PA through sunset
Wednesday evening. At the surface, the ridge continues to
impact our region as the ridge axis moves from the western Great
Lakes to near eastern NY and NJ. Fair weather is expected as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Weakening low-
level CAA today, east of the ridge axis, transitions to low-
level WAA tonight through Wednesday as our CWA becomes located
west of the ridge axis at/near the surface. Mainly clear sky and
daytime heating will allow late afternoon highs to reach the
50`s to lower 60`s in NW PA and the mid 50`s to upper 60`s in
northern OH. The coolest highs are expected along and within
several miles of Lake Erie as a weak synoptic MSLP gradient and
sufficient daytime heating of surface air over land surrounding
the ~49F lake permit lake breeze development late this morning
through early evening. Tonight`s lows are expected to reach the
40`s in NW PA and the 40`s to lower 50`s in northern OH around
daybreak Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be mainly clear to
partly cloudy and warmer. Late afternoon highs are expected to
reach the upper 50`s to lower 70`s in NW PA and the lower 60`s
to upper 70`s in northern OH. The coolest highs are expected
along and within several miles of Lake Erie once again due to
renewed lake breeze development during the late morning through
early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Current odds favor fair weather on Wednesday night through
Thursday as the aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft
continues to exit E`ward, yet also continues to affect our
region. Synoptic low-level WAA will persist in our CWA, along
the backside of the ridge. Overnight lows should reach the upper
40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak Thursday. On Thursday, late
afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid 60`s to upper 70`s
in NW PA and mainly the mid 60`s to lower 80`s in northern OH
under a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky. The coolest highs
are expected along and within several miles of Lake Erie due to
renewed lake breeze development in the late morning through
early evening.

Aloft, one shortwave trough sharpens and approaches our CWA from
the central Great Plains on Thursday night through Friday before
shifting farther E`ward and across our region Friday night.
During Friday night, a separate shortwave trough axis should
approach our region from the northwestern Great Lakes. At the
surface, attendant troughing impacts the Lake Erie region and
Upper OH Valley. A surface low accompanying the first shortwave
through should wobble NE`ward from the central Great Plains to
the Upper MS Valley Thursday night, then wobble ENE`ward toward
western Lake Erie on Friday before moving farther ENE`ward to
Lake Ontario by daybreak Saturday. This surface low track
should allow a warm front to sweep N`ward from the OH Valley and
across most of our CWA on Friday before the front stalls near
the southern shore of Lake Erie by late Friday afternoon. During
Friday evening through Friday night, the low track should allow
the trailing cold front to sweep SE`ward through our CWA.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night
through Friday night as instability, including elevated
instability, is released by the following: Moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of
the shortwave trough axes; low-level convergence/moist ascent
along the cold front.

Low-level WAA ahead of and behind the warm front should
contribute to lows reaching the 50`s to lower 60`s Thursday
night and late afternoon highs reaching mainly the 70`s on
Friday. Low-level CAA behind the cold front should contribute to
lows reaching the upper 40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The second above-mentioned shortwave trough axis should sweep
SE`ward across our region on Saturday. Moist isentropic ascent
preceding the shortwave trough axis and low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the attendant surface trough axis
should release sufficient instability, including elevated
instability, to trigger additional isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms in our CWA. Daytime highs should reach mainly
the mid 50`s to mid 60`s as the post-cold front CAA regime at
the surface and aloft persists.

Fair weather should impact our region Saturday night through
Sunday night as a ridge at the surface and aloft builds E`ward
into the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley, and is
accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. Lingering low-level CAA
will eventually transition to low-level WAA as the ridge axis
at/near the surface shifts E`ward and becomes located to our
east. Overnight lows should reach the 40`s to lower 50`s around
daybreak Sunday and Monday, respectively. Highs should reach
the upper 50`s to near 70F late Sunday afternoon.

On Monday, our region is expected to be located along the
western flank of the surface ridge while the ridge aloft
continues to build from the west, which will allow low-level WAA
to persist in northern OH and NW PA. This WAA regime and daytime
heating should allow late afternoon highs to reach mainly the
70`s. Primarily fair weather is expected. However, a shortwave
trough may ripple E`ward through the ridge aloft. Low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the attendant surface trough axis
may release enough instability to trigger a few showers and
thunderstorms, but the potential appears to be very low at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid-high
clouds will thicken some late tonight into Wednesday. A few
light rain showers become possible starting around 11z in
TOL/FDY and after 15z at CLE as a warm front develops just north
of the region. Confidence in showers at a given location is <30%
and any restrictions would be quite limited, so left out of all
TAFs for now. West-northwest winds of 6 to 12 knots continue
this afternoon. Winds shift east-south tonight at less than 6
knots. Winds shift west-southwest on Wednesday and increase
slightly to 5 to 8 knots. Likely will be a lake breeze at CLE
and ERI Wednesday afternoon, shifting winds onshore.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms overnight Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge affects Lake Erie through Thursday night as the ridge
axis moves from the western Great Lakes to the Canadian
Maritimes. W`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots transition to
variable in direction and ease to around 5 to 10 knots in
magnitude late this morning through Thursday as a weakening MSLP
gradient accompanies the building ridge. Winds will trend
onshore during the late morning through early evening hours due
to lake breeze development today, Wednesday, and Thursday,
respectively. On Thursday night, NE`erly to SE`erly winds around
5 to 10 knots are expected.

Lingering 4 footers in open waters of eastern Lake Erie are
expected to subside to 3 feet or less by nightfall this evening
at the latest. Otherwise waves of 3 feet or less are expected
through Thursday night.

A low is expected to move E`ward from the Upper MS Valley to
near western Lake Erie on Friday and allow a warm front to sweep
N`ward from the OH Valley before the front stalls near the
southern shore of Lake Erie. In response, primarily E`erly to
SE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less
are forecast. During Friday night, the low should move ENE`ward
near the southern shore of Lake Erie and reach the Lake Ontario
region by daybreak Saturday. Accordingly, the trailing portion
of the front should sweep SE`ward as a cold front and away from
Lake Erie. The E`erly to SE`erly winds are expected to back to
N`erly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots. Accordingly, waves
of 1 to 4 feet are expected Friday night and these conditions
may warrant a Small Craft Advisory. On Saturday, a trough is
expected to linger over Lake Erie as a ridge attempts to build
from the northern Great Lakes. N`erly to NE`erly winds should
ease gradually to 10 to 15 knots and allow waves to subside to 3
feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Jaszka