071
FXUS61 KCLE 032320
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
720 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains stationed along the East Coast through the
weekend before drifting east early next week. A cold front will move
east across the region Tuesday night Wednesday before high pressure
returns on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure persists along the East Coast and will allow for
continued dry weather across the local weather through the near
term. Overnight lows tonight and Saturday night will vary
between upper 40s to lower 50s across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania to mid to upper 50s along and west of the
I-71 corridor. Can`t rule out some patchy fog developing south
of US-30 tonight. High temperatures will warm into the low to
mid 80s areawide tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues early in the short term but will
gradually move east as an upper level trough approaches the
region. At the surface a cold front will begin to sweep east
across the Great Lakes region with some prefrontal showers
possible Monday night. Warm high temperatures in the low to mid
80s are expected Sunday and Monday afternoon. Overnight lows
remain in the 50s Sunday night. Warmest overnight lows will
occur Monday night as they settle in the upper 50s to lower 60s
as cloud cover increases ahead of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prolonged dry period comes to an end as the aforementioned
upper level trough and accompanying surface cold front cross the
local area Tuesday into Wednesday. Highest chance for
widespread showers will be along the front Tuesday into Tuesday
night with some lingering showers Wednesday morning. Forecast
precipitation amounts will generally range between 0.25 and
0.50 inches with locally higher amounts 0.50 to 0.75 inches
possible along the lakeshore in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Canadian high pressure will build across the
Great Lakes region Wednesday and become established overhead by
Thursday allowing for dry conditions to return. Warmest day of
the week will be Tuesday with highs in the lower 70s ahead of
the frontal passage. Highs will drop into the mid 60s Wednesday
and Thursday behind the cold front with highs returning near 70
degrees by Friday. Will need to monitor the potential for frost
Wednesday night as conditions will be favorable under Canadian
high pressure with lows dipping into the mid 30s across portions
of Northwest Pennsylvania. DESI NBM probabilities of a minimum
temperature below 36 degrees Wednesday night peak in the 55-70%
range for inland portions of Northwest Pennsylvania

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions continue into the weekend as high pressure over
the Northeast U.S. remains in control. There will likely be some
very localized fog in some deeper river valleys around dawn on
Saturday, though otherwise mainly clear skies will continue.
Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting southerly at
3-7kt during the day Saturday. A lake breeze may flip ERI and
CLE to a more northerly wind direction for a few hours late
Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with rain showers Monday
night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Very quiet marine conditions will persist through the weekend as
high pressure drifts deeper into the Mid Atlantic and eventually
offshore by Sunday afternoon. This will lead to S winds
averaging 5-15 knots, although some afternoon lake breezes will
shift nearshore winds to N for a few hours. S to SW winds
averaging 5-15 knots will continue through Monday, but winds
will turn more WSW and increase to 10-15 knots Monday night and
Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the western Great
Lakes. This cold front looks to cross the lake by Tuesday
evening, with N winds of 15-25 knots behind it Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This will build wave heights to 3 to 5 feet, so
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed at that time for
the combination of winds and waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Garuckas