047
FXUS61 KCLE 100554
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Given the current trends, thunderstorms during the day seem less
likely, though are still possible. Showers and thunderstorms still
remain on track along and ahead of the cold front this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a
higher chance along and ahead of the cold front this evening. Some
storms may be strong to severe with possible isolated damaging winds
and up to quarter size hail.

2) Below average temperatures with high pressure building in
starting Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Potential for
frost/freeze Tuesday morning.

3) Unsettled weather returns mid week with a low pressure system
moving through the Great Lakes region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Residual low level clouds from early morning precipitation have
started to dissipate in western and northern Ohio and should
continue to clear out throughout the afternoon. Temperatures as a
result have started to climb up into the low to mid 60s with dew
points in the low 50s. Instability will increase as well with the
temperatures, though how much it increases will be dependent on if
temperatures can climb a bit higher in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Currently, MLCAPE is forecast to be around 500-1000 J/kg and MUCAPE
near 1000 J/kg by later this afternoon with a few areas possibly
reaching above that. Winds shear will also increase ahead of the
approaching cold front, though will be on the weaker side with bulk
shear around 40 knots. Freezing levels will be low as well, which
could support some hail, though given the conditions above, hail
around quarter size or less seems realistic. There will also be a
strong with an isolated damaging wind threat along and ahead of the
cold front. The cold front will pass through the region between late
tonight into early tomorrow morning which could carry a strong wind
threat with it. Though with instability waning into the late
evening, the severe threat will become less likely and should
anticipate more showers than thunderstorms.

Scattered rain showers will likely linger behind the cold front
across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA into Sunday
morning. High pressure builds in Sunday afternoon and rain will
clear out by then. Rain totals through tomorrow morning will be
minimal, with highest amounts in more persistent rainfall being
around a half an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will begin to build in Sunday afternoon with generally
west to northwesterly low level flow across the region through
Tuesday afternoon. Current models have 850 temperatures dropping
down to 0 to -3C Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning with winds
becoming light to calm during the time frame underneath the high
pressure. Drier upper level air will be moving in late Monday as
well which should clear the region out of any cloud cover by
Tuesday. This will create the potential for some frost/freeze across
the region Tuesday morning as temperatures will drop down into the
mid to upper 30s with some locations dropping into the low 30s. The
colder of those temperatures look to be in eastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania away from the lakeshore. Flow will shift
to be out of the southwest Tuesday afternoon on the west side of the
high pressure and temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to
low 60s for highs.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A low pressure system will enter the region late Tuesday night as a
upper level trough ejects out of the Canadian plains and moves
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Precipitation will begin to
move in late Tuesday night and persist through much of the day
Wednesday. Don`t anticipate much thunder with the system given the
arrival time, though a rumble of thunder would still be possible out
west Tuesday night and then again out east with the front midday
Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rain is possible at times which could
lead to some higher precipitation totals by the end of the day
Wednesday. Will need to monitor the development of the system over
the next few days to see the potential for any rainfall related
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
At the surface, a cold front, augmented by precip-cooled air
from showers and thunderstorms, extended SW`ward from just east
and south of KDKK, NY to near KPOV, OH to just north and west of
KMFD, OH and KMNN, OH at 05:45Z/Sun. This front continues
moving SE`ward and should exit the rest of our region by
09Z/Sun. Behind the front, a high pressure ridge builds slowly
from the Canadian Prairies and vicinity through 06Z/Mon. Ahead
of the front, our regional surface winds trend S`erly to SW`erly
around 5 to 10 knots. Behind the front, surface winds trend
W`erly to NE`erly around 5 to 10 knots through 06Z/Mon.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to LIFR are
expected along and ahead of the surface cold front, but
confidence in this convection impacting any TAF site remains
low. VFR are expected outside the showers/storms. Behind the
surface front, dry weather and VFR are expected through 06Z/Mon.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Non-VFR may
linger across the eastern-half of the area due to rain showers
and low ceilings this Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week
with no headlines anticipated. Main concern will be the threat for
strong thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening with the
potential for gusty winds in excess of 34 knots, particularly across
the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. Otherwise, relatively
light winds of less than 15 knots are expected through Tuesday.
Slightly stronger south to southwest flow of 15 to 20 knots will
develop Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front, with
winds shifting towards the west to northwest behind the front
Wednesday night, 15 to 20 knots. Will continue to monitor for Small
Craft potential during this period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Kahn