056
FXUS61 KCLE 030516
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1216 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast tonight and Saturday before
weakening Saturday night as another fast moving clipper system
drops through the central and eastern Great Lakes. High pressure
will return Sunday afternoon before exiting east Monday as a
warm front lifts across the region. Another fast moving low
pressure system will affect the region Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Have taken down all of the winter weather headlines across the
area. Snow is tapering off to just some light showers and any
new snow accumulations should be an inch or less with limited
impacts.

Previous Discussion...
Busy day today as Mother Nature threw us a curve ball with
lake-effect snow showers being more widespread and organized
than previously thought. This was due to a very subtle mid/upper
shortwave and associated surface trough that crossed the
southern Great Lakes from mid morning through early afternoon,
leading to an uptick in synoptic moisture, inversion heights,
and low-level convergence. Multiple bands of snow deposited 1 to
3 inches of fluffy snow (perhaps locally higher) across
portions of Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, Erie, and
Crawford Counties. Lighter amounts also fell across Lorain,
Medina, Summit, Portage, and Trumbull Counties.

Upstream visible satellite and regional radar loops finally show
drier air working toward the region as the surface ridging
approaches from the Upper Midwest. This is noted by diminishing
clouds and lake-effect bands coming off Lakes Superior and
Michigan. Expect the ongoing snow showers in NE Ohio and NW PA
to slowly diminish through mid evening while also shifting
northeast as this drier air, subsidence, and backing boundary
layer flow work into the region. With this being said, extended
all warning and advisory headlines through 00Z this evening
since an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow (locally up to 3) is
still expected where squalls persist.

As the ridging builds overhead tonight, lingering flurries in NW
PA will end allowing all areas to dry out. This will set up a
quiet and cold night, with lows in the low/mid teens. Mainly
quiet and cold conditions will continue Saturday, with highs in
the mid/upper 20s. The high will start to weaken and drift
farther SE by Saturday afternoon as another fast moving
mid/upper shortwave and associated surface low drop into the
Upper Great Lakes. Increasing moisture and isentropic ascent
ahead of this Clipper combined with continued lake induced
instability and boundary layer flow across the lake starting to
veer again could bring a few snow showers into NW PA and far NE
Ohio, so added some chance POPS in the afternoon. The better
chance of snow showers will be Saturday night as the Clipper
crosses the central and eastern Great Lakes. The best forcing
and moisture will stay north of our region, but enough mid-level
ascent and low-level convergence as the associated trough
crosses the lake combined with continued conditional instability
and long fetch will bring a band of lake enhanced snow through
far NE Ohio and NW PA. Given the short window, snow amounts at
this time look to average 1-2 inches across Lake, Geauga, and
Ashtabula Counties, with 1 to 3 inches (locally higher) in Erie
and Crawford Counties. This period will continue to be
evaluated for possible advisories. Otherwise, lows Saturday
night will remain very cold, with mid/upper teens expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
This period will gradually start a stretch of quieter weather
that will last into next week, along with warming temperatures.
Lingering lake-effect snow showers in far NE Ohio and NW PA will
quickly end Sunday afternoon as broad surface ridging builds
into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to mainly dry conditions
through Sunday night. The broad mid/upper trough that has been
sitting over eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. over the past
week will start to lift out Monday and Monday night, but one
more Clipper system will drop from the Upper Great Lakes Monday
through the eastern Great Lakes Monday night. The bulk of the
forcing and moisture will stay to our north, but enough upper
jet support will interact with a warm front lifting across the
region Monday to generate some light snow across far northern
areas.

Highs in the mid/upper 20s Sunday will warm into the low/mid 30s
Monday. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid to upper
teens, with much milder mid/upper 20s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As hinted at above, a welcomed January thaw will arrive for
next week as a quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern develops
across the country. This will allow mild Pacific-based air to
flood eastward, with high temperatures warming into the low 40s
Tuesday and low/mid 40s Wednesday. Further warming will result
in highs potentially reaching the mid 40s to around 50 Thursday
and solid 50s Friday. A fast moving shortwave could bring a few
rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday night, with better chances for
rain Thursday into Friday as a stronger low lifts into the
Great Lakes. As a heads up, this storm system for the end of the
week will likely drag arctic air back into the region by next
weekend, and long range Canadian, GEFS, and ECMWF ensembles
suggest another cold pattern for mid and late January which is
also supported by teleconnections in the eastern Pacific. Enjoy
the thaw next week while it`s here!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An area of MVFR ceilings continues to migrate east through the
airspace this evening with MVFR mainly along and east of a KBKL
to K10G line. MVFR will progress out of KCAK and KYNG over the
next several hours with skies improving to just some mid-level
ceilings. VFR should be expected most of today with a surface
ridge over the area. Another clipper system will enter the
region tonight bringing some lake enhanced snow in NE OH/NW PA.
Have early snow mentions at KCLE, KERI, KCAK, and KYNG with KERI
mostly likely to see IFR impacts with snow. Winds will be light
through the period with west winds 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected across northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania with snow showers and low ceilings
through the first part of Sunday and again Monday morning.
Additional non-VFR possible in rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from Avon Point east
through 4 AM EST Saturday morning. West winds 15 to 20 knots and
waves of 3 to 6 feet (in ice free areas) are anticipated
through this evening before winds diminish and waves subside
late tonight into early Saturday morning.

High pressure builds across the region Saturday through Monday,
with much quieter weather expected on Lake Erie during this
period. Southerly winds develop on Monday, gradually becoming
southwesterly on Tuesday and west on Wednesday, with wind speeds
at or below 15 knots, and ice-free areas at or below 2 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Saunders