771
FXUS61 KCLE 121944
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track with widespread precipitation tonight and
scattered showers through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather expected starting tonight through Thursday
afternoon with periodic showers and thunderstorms.

2) Temperatures begin warming Friday into early next week with above
average temperatures likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure enters the Great Lakes region this evening with the
associated warm front moving north through area tonight.
Precipitation will begin out west before midnight and progressing
eastward throughout the night ahead of the cold front. The cold
front will move through the region early Wednesday morning and exit
by the afternoon. There may be some thunderstorms initially when the
showers begin out west, though most of the instability will be
minimal overnight so expecting little thunder if any over
night. Generally expecting a quarter inch of QPF overnight with
the rain showers. Behind the cold front, precipitation across
the western portion of the CWA will end and there will be a
short lull in precipitation out east. Additionally moisture will
return to the region late Wednesday evening as flow shift to be
more north- northwesterly across the region. This will help
support the development of periodic lake enhanced showers across
eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania through Thursday
afternoon. Though, given the lake is still on the cooler side
compared to the air temperature, there will be minimal lake
induced instability impacting the overall extent of the lake
enhanced showers. Warmer upper air temperatures begin to move
into the region Thursday and showers should begin to end by the
evening timeframe. Overall, an additional tenth or two of
precipitation is possible across the primary and secondary
snowbelts through Thursday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the exiting trough, upper level ridging will begin to build
into the region early Friday and the area will see a warming trend
in the temperatures through early next week. The region will be in a
west to southwesterly flow starting Friday afternoon and
temperatures will gradually increase each day through Monday. Highs
on Friday will be 10-15 degrees warmer than on Thursday into the
upper 60s to low 70s. Through the weekend, highs will climb into the
upper 70s to low 80s with the warmest day being Monday as highs will
be in the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be slightly above average as
well, dropping down into the mid 50s through the weekend. Given it`s
almost a week out, there are some disagreements in some models as to
how warm Sunday and Monday will get, so some adjustments in the
temperatures may be needed as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Pleasant aviation conditions are being observed across the area
this afternoon as high pressure lingers over the region. By this
evening however, conditions will begin to diminish as a low
pressure system moves east into the Great Lakes region, moving a
warm front north late this afternoon, followed by a cold front
overnight. Ahead of the cold front, a strong LLJ will push
northeast, increasing winds from the south-southeast to 12-16
knots across the area with gusts up to 25 knots. The strongest
gusts should remain along and west of I-71. Near 02Z, showers
will begin to move into NW OH, spreading east overnight.
Widespread showers are expected ahead and along the front with
ceilings and visibilities possibly diminishing to MVFR at times.
There is a non-zero potential for thunder, however given the
diurnally unfavorable timing, confidence is very low at this
point.

As the front drifts east overnight, conditions will
gradually dry out with the exception of eastern terminals where
some lake enhanced showers will linger through the end of the
period. MVFR ceilings will become more widespread behind the
departing front with ceilings generally between 2-3kft. In
addition, behind the front, winds will become west-
northwesterly and remain elevated in the 12-15 knots range,
gusting up to 25 knots. These winds are expected to persist
through the end of the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain and low ceilings
through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions will persist through this afternoon before a
warm front lifts north across Lake Erie, marking a transition to
south-southwesterly winds and an increase to 20-25 knots across the
western and central basins. As a cold front pushes east tonight,
winds will gradually shift to become west-northwesterly, remaining
elevated in the 15-25 knots range. The shift to onshore flow will
result in waves building to 4-6 feet across the central and eastern
basin lakeshores. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for the southern shore of Lake Erie.

On Thursday into Friday, conditions will gradually improve as high
pressure nudges east over the region. This will result in variable
winds of 5-10 knots with waves under 2 feet. Late Sunday, another
warm front will lift north of the area, allowing winds to once again
become southerly and increase to 10-15 knots into the start of next
week. Given offshore flow, no additional marine headlines are
anticipated at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Thursday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04