209
FXUS61 KCLE 021122
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
722 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes region will remain in place
through the weekend, moving east of the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today will largely be a rinse and repeat of Friday with high
pressure over the Great Lakes and northwest flow aloft, allowing for
dry weather and cooler than normal conditions. The cooler air over
Lake Erie with moisture in the 850-900 mb layer will allow for a
land breeze set up that could generate some clouds into North
Central Ohio, but the overall set up is limited in moisture and
thermodynamic support for any rain. Some high clouds will advect
into the region through the day to allow for partly cloudy
conditions for all. These will fade for tonight into Sunday,
allowing for clear and dry conditions. Temperatures will be in the
70s for this afternoon and cool into the 50s again tonight with 60s
near the lakeshore. Highs on Sunday will inch higher with a mix of
70s and 80s, as high pressure shifts east, allowing for slight
warming overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday night through Monday night, high pressure will continue
to be over the area but will drift eastward. Flow will become
southerly across the region behind the high, and an upper ridge
moving over the region will allow for temperatures to warm with
widespread 80s expected for Monday. The main item with the southerly
flow will be a slow return of moisture and more humid conditions.
The impacts will not quite be felt on Monday, as the low 60s dew
points just start to return. However, things could start feeling a
little toasty again on Tuesday, as those dew points start to
approach the mid 60s, especially for the western half of the area.
There is low confidence on the rain potential for Tuesday, but
overall, the trends are down for rain, as the upper ridge is slower
to move out and an upper trough to the west is much slower to arrive
with any form of upper support for convection. There could be some
rain that could arrive late in the period on Tuesday night, but
there remains large uncertainty at this time and a low PoP is fine
for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Wednesday and beyond, the high pressure system will move off the
East Coast, but it will continue to influence the local area,
maintaining southerly, return flow. This will allow for continued
warm air advection and increasing moisture into the local area and
temperatures will continue to inch up through the 80s and dew points
will crawl through the 60s and potentially near 70 for Friday. These
temperatures and dew points, along with a weakening shortwave
entering overhead, could allow for some shower and thunderstorm
activity across the area. However, the lack of good synoptic forcing
or a surface feature to be in place to trigger convection will
overall keep chances low and have 15-30% rain chances for the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions expected during the TAF period as high pressure
persists over the region. Diurnally driven scattered cumulus
will develop late this morning and continue into the evening
before dissipating around 00Z. Northeast winds increase to 5-8
knots late this morning, around 15Z, with more northerly flow
likely at KCLE and KERI as a lake breeze develops. Winds
diminish to 5 knots or less after 00Z/Sun while turning more
easterly to southeasterly.

Outlook...VFR is then expected to persist through Monday. Non-
VFR is possible with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into the
middle of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Some elevated northeasterly winds 10-15 knots will continue on Lake
Erie through early this morning. By this afternoon winds will
generally favor a northeasterly component through the remainder of
the weekend while diminishing to 10 knots or less under high
pressure. There will be favorable conditions for waterspouts again
through late this morning. High pressure persists overhead the Great
Lakes region allowing for tranquil marine conditions through early
next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13