854
FXUS61 KCLE 051905
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
305 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will linger over the Great Lakes through the weekend. High
pressure will gradually build east across the region on Monday and
persist into mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough will remain over the Great Lakes for the
near term period, bringing periods of cloudiness, light rain
chances, and below average temperatures.

Apart from elevated west to southwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph
this evening, mainly quiet weather is expected, though can`t
rule out a stray shower or two across far NE OH and NW PA with
the cold front. Winds will quickly diminish after sunset. By
tonight, another piece of jet energy will round the base of the
upper-level trough, though the favored area of lift is expected
to be just south and southeast of the area. Opted to include
some low-end precipitation chances to account for light rain
overnight into Saturday morning, though an abundance of dry air
below 8-10kft may limit any measurable rain. The better chances
for measurable precipitation (steady rain) will be found closer
to the OH/PA border Saturday morning.

Colder upper-level air will arrive across the Lower Great Lakes
by late Saturday and Saturday night, characterized by 850 mb
temperatures falling to around 4 degrees C. Lake effect clouds
and rain chances will gradually increase across far NE OH and NW
PA Saturday night, particularly in lakeshore areas as surface
winds begin to favor a southwesterly direction, increasing
surface convergence along the lake/land interface. A few
thunderstorms may accompany the more intense lake effect rain
bands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect rain chances will continue for the first half of the
short term period, though improving weather conditions are
expected to arrive by Monday with high pressure.

A surface trough will swing through the area on Sunday,
spreading rain chances further inland across portions of NE OH
and NW PA as winds shift towards the west to northwest. The
upper- level air mass will continue to gradually cool on Sunday,
with 850 mb temperatures reaching around 3 degrees C. Opted to
maintain low-end thunderstorm chances on Sunday given steep low
and mid-level lapse rates.

High pressure will begin to build east across the Great Lakes
Sunday night into Monday, with lake effect rain transitioning
over to lake effect clouds given diminishing boundary layer
moisture. Sunday night will be chilly across much of the area,
as temperatures dip into the lower 40s to perhaps upper 30s
under mostly clear skies. At this time, probabilities of
temperatures less than 37 degrees F are very low (less than
10%), though can`t rule out some isolated patches of frost
across interior northern OH.

Quiet, albeit a little chilly, weather is expected for Monday as
high pressure settles in across the area. Temperatures will
remain below average in the upper 60s to lower 70s under mostly
sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet weather is favored for the long term period as another
area of high pressure builds south across the Great Lakes by mid
to late week. Seasonable to slightly above average temperatures
in the upper 70s to near 80 are expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday. A surface cold front will move south across the area
ahead of the building high pressure on Thursday, pushing highs
back to below average in the low to mid-70s for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are observed areawide this afternoon and are
expected to continue through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds
will be on the rise through tonight, especially for the eastern
half of the forecast with scattered, light rain showers also
developing late tonight, mainly east of I-77. Showers are
unlikely to produce non-VFR conditions but perhaps ceilings drop
to around 5kft for eastern locations.

Southwest to west winds of around 15 to 20 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots are expected through sunset today. A rogue gust up
to 35 knots (which as already been observed at KTOL) is
possible. Winds quiet down substantially after sunset to around
5 knots before picking back up to around 10 knots Saturday
afternoon.

Outlook...There is a very low chance of non-VFR ceilings with
light rain Saturday morning for far eastern Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. There is also a low chance of non-VFR with lake
effect clouds and rain in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania on late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
West to southwest winds of around 20 to 25 knots are expected to
continue on Lake Erie through this evening before diminishing
overnight. Small craft advisories and beach hazard statements
remain in effect through tonight. Water levels in the western
basin have dropped to within 6 inches of the critical mark for
safe navigation; however, water levels are likely at their
lowest point of the day, and a low water advisory is not
expected.

A brief lull is expected Saturday morning before west winds
increase to around 15 knots Saturday evening through Sunday as a
surface through builds in. Partially onshore flow and brief
periods of stronger winds to ~20 knots may be just enough for
waves to build to 3-4 feet Saturday evening into Sunday,
especially east of Avon Lake, which may require a marginal small
craft advisory and beach hazard statement.

High pressure builds in Monday and Tuesday, with conditions
improving on Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders