912
FXUS61 KCLE 112324
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
624 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge moves eastward across our region through this early
evening. Behind the ridge, a trough enters from the west as a
cold front approaches from the Upper Mississippi Valley and
western Great Lakes. The cold front should sweep eastward
through our area on Wednesday. Behind the front, a ridge should
build gradually from the north-central United States through at
least this Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A narrow ridge at the surface and aloft moves E`ward through
northern OH and NW PA through this early evening. Primarily dry
weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the
ridge. Lingering lake-effect precip (LEP), mainly in the form
of wet snow, will continue to shift generally N`ward and E`ward
across NW PA and vicinity this afternoon and become located
offshore our CWA by this early evening as mean low-level flow
backs from W`erly to SW`erly. Any additional snow accumulations
will be less than one inch as lake-induced CAPE (LICAPE) over
~9C Lake Erie decreases due, in part to a lowering subsidence
inversion accompanying the ridge. Later this evening through
nightfall Wednesday evening, cyclonic W`erly to WNW`erly flow
aloft, embedded/subtle shortwave troughs, and attendant surface
troughing affect our region. In addition, a cold front
accompanying a stronger shortwave trough should sweep E`ward
across our region late Wednesday morning through early evening.
Tonight`s lows should reach mainly the mid 20`s to mid 30`s
around daybreak Wednesday. Daytime highs on Wednesday should
reach the lower to mid 40`s via peeks of sunshine and low-level
WAA on the backside of the departing ridge and ahead of the cold
front.

Moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the shortwave trough axes,
and convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes and the
surface cold front may trigger isolated to scattered showers later
this evening through Wednesday, especially in NE OH and NW PA, where
moisture should be greater at/near the surface. Forecast model
soundings indicate these showers should mainly be in the form of
snow and graupel tonight. During the daylight hours of Wednesday,
snow and graupel should mix with and then change to rain by late
morning or very early afternoon at the latest as diurnal warming
allows a surface-based melting layer to form and deepen. Any snow
accumulations should be two inches or less. The greatest chance for
an inch or two of snow accumulation exists in the higher terrain of
NW PA. Rain should then remain the predominant precip type through
early Wednesday evening. Regarding LEP, a SW`erly to WSW`erly mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold and moist air, and weak to
perhaps moderate LICAPE over Lake Erie will allow LEP to stream
generally NE`ward over Lake Erie and into portions of western NY
tonight through most of Wednesday morning. However, this LEP may
skirt the lakeshore at times from Lake County, OH to Erie County,
PA, especially after midnight tonight. Late Wednesday morning
through early Wednesday evening, the LEP is expected to settle
gradually S`ward into the primary snowbelt of NE OH/NW PA and
vicinity as the mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air
veers from WSW`erly to WNW`erly in response to multiple shortwave
trough passages and the aforementioned cold front passage. Given the
projected LICAPE magnitudes, lake-induced equilibrium levels as high
as ~10kft above Lake Erie, and the expectation of greater and deeper
low-level moisture on the synoptic-scale, LEP will probably be
steady to heavy at times late this evening through early Wednesday
evening.

During Wednesday night, another ridge at the surface and aloft
will build from the north-central United States and vicinity.
Primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the ridge. However, a WNW`erly to NW`erly mean low-
level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air will allow lingering
LEP to stream generally SE`ward across the snowbelt of NE OH/NW
PA and vicinity. LICAPE magnitudes and LEP intensity will wane
in response to a lowering subsidence inversion and low-level dry
air advection accompanying the ridge. Nocturnal cooling and
low-level CAA behind the cold front will allow rain to mix with
or change to snow Wednesday night as lows settle into mainly
the upper 20`s to mid 30`s. Any additional snow accumulations
will likely be less than one inch and primarily confined to the
higher terrain of NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly dry weather is expected on Thursday through Thursday
night as the aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft
continues to build from the north-central United States and
vicinity. However, lingering, light, and isolated to scattered
LEP streaming generally SE`ward over Lake Erie and the NE OH/NW
PA snow belt and vicinity should end by midnight Thursday night
as LICAPE continues to wane via a lowering subsidence inversion
and continued low-level dry air advection. Peeks of sunshine and
diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer amidst the
lowering subsidence inversion should allow late afternoon highs
to reach the lower 40`s to lower 50`s late Thursday afternoon.
Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 20`s to mid 30`s
around daybreak Friday.

Dry weather is expected in our entire CWA on Friday as the
surface portion of the ridge begins to crest E`ward through our
region, the ridge axis aloft moves E`ward from the north-central
United States toward the western Great Lakes, and stabilizing
subsidence accompanying the ridge persists over our region.
Intervals of sunshine should contribute to late afternoon highs
reaching the upper 40`s to mid 50`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
During Friday night, the ridge at the surface and aloft should
continue to build and eventually crest E`ward across our CWA.
Behind the ridge, W`erly to NW`erly and primarily cyclonic flow
aloft should become established over the Lake Erie region and
Upper OH Valley late Friday night through Tuesday. Accordingly,
net surface troughing should affect our region. In addition, a
surface cold front accompanying a stronger shortwave trough
should sweep E`ward through our region on Sunday. Periods of
precip, mainly in the form of rain, are expected late Friday
night through Tuesday due to the following: moist isentropic
ascent aloft, ahead of the shortwave trough axes; convergence
and moist ascent along surface trough axes accompanying the
shortwave disturbances and the surface cold front. Behind the
cold front, a sufficiently-cold/moist W`erly to NW`erly mean
low-level flow and sufficient lake-induced instability should
permit periods of LEP, mainly in the form of rain, to impact
the NE OH/NW PA snow belt and vicinity.

A low-level WAA regime ahead of the above-mentioned cold front
should be accompanied by overnight lows mainly in the 30`s to
lower 40`s Friday night and mainly the upper 30`s to near 50F
Saturday night. Daytime highs should reach the upper 40`s to
lower 60`s on Saturday and the 50`s on Sunday. The low-level CAA
regime behind the cold front should be accompanied by overnight
lows mainly in the 30`s Sunday night and mainly the lower to mid
30`s Monday night. Based on the projected evolution of the
atmospheric column, rain should mix with or change to wet snow
at times Sunday night into Monday morning and Monday night into
Tuesday morning, especially inland from Lake Erie in NE OH and
NW PA, where colder lows are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR to some MVFR conditions are expected during the next 24
hours. For this evening and overnight, VFR conditions will
continue with high and mid level cloudiness. By tomorrow
morning, MVFR ceilings will be possible at TOL, CAK, and CLE.
MVFR to lower end MVFR ceilings are likely for YNG and ERI
tomorrow morning through Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Scattered light rain/snow showers will be possible around ERI
during the day causing visibility reductions to 3sm to 5sm.
Winds will remain elevated over the next 24 hours starting from
the southwest 12 to 16 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds
will become more westerly by Wednesday morning through the rest
of the TAF period.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions will continue in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania as lake effect
showers return on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine headlines are unchanged outside of bumping up the start time
of the Low Water Advisory. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
across the entire lake through 7 PM tonight before a Gale Warning
takes effect in the central and eastern basins. The Gale Warning
will run from 7 PM tonight through 4 AM Wednesday to account for
southwesterly winds 20-30 knots increasing to 35 knot gales east of
Avon Point. Wave heights east of the Islands tonight will range
between 4-8 feet in the nearshore zones to 6-12 feet across the open
waters.

Strong southwesterly flow through Wednesday will allow for water
levels to drop below the critical mark for safe navigation which is
currently 5 inches below low water datum. The water level is
forecast to fall below the critical mark this evening and eventually
fall to around 18 inches below low water datum tonight.

Winds decrease slightly Wednesday morning but remain in the 20-30
knot range while becoming westerly. A Small Craft Advisory will be
needed across the central and eastern basins once the Gale Warning
expires early Wednesday morning. Winds gradually subside to 15-25
knots while turning west-northwesterly Thursday and Thursday night.
Onshore flow will keep wave heights in the central and eastern
basins between 4 to 8 feet through Thursday evening before gradually
subsiding to 3 feet or less by Friday morning. Winds decrease to 5-
15 knots by Friday and eventually turn offshore Saturday. Elevated
southwesterly winds 15-25+ knots return Saturday night/early Sunday
morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>145.
     Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ146>149.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ146>149-166>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13