313
FXUS61 KCLE 012026
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge exits toward New England today. Tonight
through midday Tuesday, a low develops northeastward from the
northwestern Gulf toward the Mid-Atlantic coast and extends a
trough into our region. Later Tuesday through Tuesday night,
another ridge will affect our region as the embedded high
pressure center moves from the south-central United States
toward the southern Appalachians.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our entire
forecast area for widespread accumulating snow tonight into
Tuesday morning. Please see weather.gov/cle/winter for detailed
information regarding the advisory, including when and where it
is in effect.

Dry weather is expected to persist in our CWA through sunset
this evening as a ridge at the surface and aloft, and associated
stabilizing subsidence, depart toward New England. Between
sunset this evening and sunset Tuesday evening, a trough axis
aloft should pivot E`ward from the Upper MS Valley and southern
Great Plains to Lake Ontario and the Carolinas and be followed
by shortwave ridging building from the west. During Tuesday
night, the subtle shortwave ridge will crest E`ward over our
region. At the surface, a low attendant to the trough aloft is
expected to move NE`ward from the northwestern Gulf to Atlantic
waters just south of Nantucket tonight through sunset Tuesday
evening and deepen amidst MSLP falls that will accompany
divergence aloft, downstream of the mid/upper-level trough
axis. This low will extend a surface trough into our region
tonight through about midday Tuesday. Later on Tuesday through
Tuesday night, a surface ridge will build from the Upper MS
Valley and eventually crest E`ward over our area. This weather
pattern at the surface and aloft will maintain an unusually-cold
air mass across our region. Lows tonight will settle into the
lower 20`s to lower 30`s, while daytime highs on Tuesday will
reach the lower to mid 30`s. Tuesday night`s lows should reach
the upper teens to mid 20`s around daybreak Wednesday.

Widespread snow, associated with the low pressure system`s warm
conveyor belt undergoing moist isentropic ascent aloft, is
expected to overspread our entire CWA and reach the surface via
the wet-bulb affect generally from west to east between about 7
PM EST this evening and midnight tonight. The snow is expected
to be steady to heavy at times with maximum snowfall rates of
0.5" to 1.0" per hour since moderately-strong or strong and
maximized ascent should be collocated with a cloudy DGZ about
0.5 km to 1 km thick at times. The widespread snow should exit
our region from west to east between about 6 AM and 11 AM
Tuesday morning. Note: a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level
atmospheric column over ~6C Lake Erie, the seeder-feeder
process, and weak lake-induced instability amidst a NW`erly to
N`erly mean low-level flow should allow a period of steady to
heavy lake-enhanced snow to impact locations generally south of
central and eastern Lake Erie from about daybreak through late
morning on Tuesday. Snowfall totals of 2-6" are expected in our
CWA. The greatest totals are expected in/near the snowbelt of NE
OH/NW PA due to lake-enhancement. From about midday Tuesday
through Tuesday night, primarily dry weather is expected as the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the
west. However, isolated to scattered lake-effect snow (LES)
showers, steady to heavy at times per model sounding data,
should impact the snowbelt of NE OH/NW PA through the first few
wee hours of Wednesday morning as the mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of Lake Erie backs
from NNW`erly to SW`erly. These LES showers should result in
highly-variable additional snow accumulations of a trace to two
inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Odds favor dry weather on Wednesday as the ridge at the surface
and aloft exits E`ward. Despite weak low-level WAA on the
backside of the ridge, daytime highs should reach only the
lower to mid 30`s as abundant cloud cover and widespread fresh
snow cover limit daytime warming. During Wednesday night, a
shortwave trough should move E`ward across the Great Lakes and
vicinity, including our CWA. At the surface, the attendant cold
front is expected to sweep SE`ward across Lake Erie, northern
OH, and NW PA. Periods of snow are expected due to the
following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough
axis; convergence/moist ascent along the surface portion and
upper-reaches of the front. This round of snow should total a
coating to two inches in our CWA. Low-level CAA behind the front
should contribute to lows reaching the mid teens to mid 20`s
around daybreak Thursday.

Primarily dry weather is expected on Thursday through Thursday
night as another ridge builds E`ward from the Upper Midwest and
then crests E`ward over/near our CWA. However, a NW`erly mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of
Lake Erie should allow scattered LES to impact the NE OH/NW PA
snowbelt and vicinity Thursday morning through afternoon. The LES
should then dissipate by around sunset Thursday evening as
lake-induced CAPE wanes via synoptic low-level dry air advection
and a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the ridge.
Fresh accumulations from the LES should be one inch or less. Net
low-level CAA should contribute to daytime highs only in the
20`s on Thursday. Partial clearing, low humidity at/near the
surface, and weak or calm surface winds should contribute to
efficient radiational cooling late Thursday afternoon through
daybreak Friday, when lows should reach mainly the 5F to 15F
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current odds favor dry weather on Friday as the ridge mentioned
in the short-term discussion exits E`ward. Daytime highs should
reach only the mid 20`s to lower 30`s. Cyclonic SW`erly to
NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
affect our region Friday night through Monday as a longwave
trough associated with a reinforcing cold air mass becomes
established over eastern Canada and the eastern United States.
At the surface, net troughing should become established and
multiple surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave
disturbances should sweep through northern OH and NW PA. Periods
of snow showers are possible due to moist isentropic ascent
ahead of the shortwave trough axes and convergence/moist ascent
along the surface trough axes. In addition, the evolution of the
air mass and mean low-level flow should allow periods of LES to
target the NE OH/NW PA snowbelt and vicinity later Saturday
through Monday. Overnight low temperatures should reach the
teens or 20`s Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights, respectively.
Daytime highs should reach the lower to mid 30`s this weekend
and the mid 20`s to lower 30`s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
The main aviation impact is a period of steady to heavy snow
that`s expected to impact all TAF sites tonight into early
Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail until snow spreads in after
0z, though ceilings may occasionally dip below 5,000 feet at
some sites before the snow. Snow is expected to spread into TOL
and FDY 0-2z, CLE 2-3z and reach eastern sites such as CAK, YNG
and ERI 3-6z. There is some uncertainty on the start time of
snow from CLE-MFD points east, as the low-levels will initially
be dry though hi-res guidance are showing hints at some banded
snow with IFR vsby impacting a narrower swath of the area as
early as 2-4z, though confidence in impacting any given terminal
is not tremendously high. Confidence is higher in conditions
degrading to IFR or lower pretty quickly from west-east 4-7z as
peak snow rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour impact all terminals,
particularly from FDY-CLE-ERI points southeast. Snow will
quickly exit 11-15z from west to east, leaving some lingering
lake effect snow showers with spottier vsby restrictions across
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches are likely at most terminals tonight into early Tuesday,
most likely close to the low end of that at TOL. IFR ceilings
will develop during the snow and persist into Tuesday morning at
most sites before gradually improving through the day.

Winds will be under 10kt through the TAF period, gradually
swinging around from east-southeast this afternoon to north-
northeast overnight tonight to more north-northwest Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR may linger in lake effect snow showers through
Tuesday evening, with ceilings remaining non-VFR until early
Wednesday. Non-VFR likely again Wednesday evening and overnight
in snow along a cold front. Non-VFR possible in scattered snow
showers on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be light (<10kt) out of the south to southeast through
early Tuesday morning. A trough will drop across Lake Erie Tuesday
morning as low pressure deepens off the Mid Atlantic Coast, shifting
winds around to the north-northwest at 10-15kt. High pressure
briefly slides through the Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday,
shifting winds southwesterly. Winds ramp up to 10-20kt late tonight
and further increase to 20-30kt by Wednesday afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds shift northwesterly late
Wednesday night into Thursday at 15-25kt behind the cold front. High
pressure quickly builds from the west late Thursday and Thursday
night, allowing winds to decrease as they shift south-southwest.
Small Craft Advisories will be needed Wednesday into Thursday in
association with the cold frontal passage.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ009-017>019-027-028-036.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ010-029>033-037-038-047.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ011>014-020>023-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan