425
FXUS61 KCLE 081756
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1256 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Plains will extend toward the Ohio
Valley today, before shifting east across the Great Lakes on
Saturday. High pressure will move off the New England Coast on
Sunday while low pressure tracks from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest. This system will lift a warm front across the region
Sunday before the cold front crosses Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12:30 PM Update...

Tweaked temperatures, dew points, winds, and sky cover for this
afternoon based on the latest blended model guidance and
observations, but the forecast otherwise remains on track.

9:30 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track this morning with no changes
needed. High pressure ridging across the region will maintain
mostly sunny and mild conditions with highs in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

Previous Discussion...

Surface ridging extends from high pressure over Nebraska east into
the local area. The ridge will shift slightly south today as a
trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes with southwesterly to
westerly winds increasing and gusting to 20-25 mph this afternoon.
Skies will start the day sunny with scattered stratocu developing
along the northeast lakeshore as the surface trough approaches
with a slight increase in moisture. High temperatures today will
run about 3 degrees warmer than yesterday with more sun.

High pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes tonight with the
flow becoming northerly off Lake Erie. Scattered clouds remain
possible off the lake and will be oriented towards Toledo by
Saturday morning. The cooler northeast flow on Saturday will
result in temperatures dropping back near normal in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather will return across the region on Sunday as a low
pressure system moves northeast through the Great Lakes. There
remains high forecast confidence in much of the region experiencing
a wetting rain Sunday morning into the afternoon. Widespread
rainfall of around three-quarters of an inch is expected with
locally higher amounts possible. Precipitation will begin to taper
from west to east as the first of two cold fronts sweeps east
through the area Sunday night. Not anticipating much of an air mass
change with this first cold front. Breezy conditions can be expected
at times ahead of the cold front, with elevated 925 mb winds of 35
to 40 knots translating to periodic surface wind gusts of 30 to 35
mph.

The second cold front will arrive Monday night, ushering in a cooler
air mass across the region. Currently, DESI probabilities indicate a
>50% chance of 850 mb temperatures falling below 0C, though a lower
threshold of -4C yields much lower probabilities, with the coldest
air confined mainly across western NY. Currently favoring the
ENS/GEPS cooler solutions at this time as the GEFS appears slightly
too warm. Thus, would expect some lake-effect rain showers at some
point across NE OH and NW PA Monday night into Tuesday, especially
with the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main feature to watch in the long term period will be the
development of a low pressure system and associated upper-level
trough moving west to east across the Great Lakes in the Wednesday
night into Thursday timeframe. Forecast confidence remains low
regarding specific low pressure location and strength, though much
of the area should expect precipitation at some point Wednesday
night into Thursday with the upper-level trough and associated
surface cold front passage.

Otherwise, quiet weather is expected for Tuesday and much of
Wednesday as another ridge dominates the eastern CONUS. Above-
average temperatures will make a return with highs in the lower 60s
by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR will continue through the TAF cycle as high pressure remains
in control. WSW winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times this
afternoon ahead of a weak cold front dropping through the
eastern Great Lakes, but winds will quickly decrease to 5-10
knots this evening while turning NW behind the front. Winds will
continue to veer to the NE tonight and eventually SE Saturday
morning as the center of the high pressure progresses across the
central Great Lakes region.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers and low ceilings
late Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
The main feature to watch in the long term period will be the
development of a low pressure system and associated upper-level
trough moving west to east across the Great Lakes in the Wednesday
night into Thursday timeframe. Forecast confidence remains low
regarding specific low pressure location and strength, though much
of the area should expect precipitation at some point Wednesday
night into Thursday with the upper-level trough and associated
surface cold front passage.

Otherwise, quiet weather is expected for Tuesday and much of
Wednesday as another ridge dominates the eastern CONUS. Above-
average temperatures will make a return with highs in the lower 60s
by Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Kahn