504
FXUS61 KCLE 120820
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
320 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will move off to the east as trough enters the region from
the west. A surface low will track to the north bringing a cold
front across the area Wednesday afternoon. High pressure builds into
the region through Saturday as a low pressure and cold front sweep
through on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak ridge will build off through NE CONUS as an upper level
shortwave enters the region from the west. Mean low level flow is
currently west-southwesterly ahead of the shortwave, and will begin
to shift to be more west to northwesterly as it passes through this
morning. A surface cold front will sweep through during the day
today providing support to re-ignite the lake effect precipitation
across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania.
Concurrently, there will be additionally moisture advection moving
back into the region that will help fuel the lake effect
precipitation as well. This morning, model soundings show that
precipitation will fall generally as snow or graupel initially then
change over to primarily rain by this afternoon as temperatures warm
into the 40s. As the winds continue to shift, precipitation may
reach down through Lake County, OH and up through Erie County, PA.
Precipitation across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania
could be heavy at times as there is still some lake induced CAPE
across that portion of that area.

Precipitation will start to wane Wednesday night into Thursday as
low level dry air moves into the region with a ridge building to the
southwest. There may be some lingering showers across northwestern
Pennsylvania as flow will continue to be out of the northwest and
low level temperatures with the CAA behind the cold front keeps some
instability over the area. The majority of the area will be dry and
begin to clear out with high pressure building in. Temperatures will
also warm over the next couple of days with the western half of the
CWA seeing temperatures approaching 50 by Thursday and the eastern
half staying in the mid to low 40s with cloud cover sticking around
longer. Overnight lows will be down into the low 30s with some areas
down into the upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned ridge will continue to build across the region and
mainly dry weather will be expected through the short term.
Temperatures will continue to warm in the short term with highs on
Friday in the mid to low 50s and Saturday reaching into the 60s out
west and the mid to upper 50s in the eastern portion. Overnight lows
will follow a similar trend with temperatures only dropping into the
low 40s by Saturday night. An upper level trough will start to
deepen across south-central Canada early in the weekend with a
surface low developing to the northwest of the Great Lakes. A warm
front will cross the region throughout the day and precipitation
chances will increase with moisture advection into the region. The
accompanying cold front will pass through the region late Saturday
night into early Sunday with the greatest chance for widespread
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front will continue through the region early on Sunday and
push eastward with precipitation chances ending for much of the
region. There will be decent CAA with northwesterly mean low level
flow behind the low pressure system creating lake induced
instability allowing for lake effect precipitation across
northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. This precipitation
should mainly fall as rain with the lake effect, though there could
be some rain/snow mix as precipitation persists into Sunday night
and early Monday. Models are inconsistent on the next feature to
move into the region as some depict a stronger ridge as opposed to
other models, though high pressure should build in to the region to
start next week. Temperatures will fall back to around normal on
Sunday behind the cold front with highs in the low 50s and overnight
lows in the low 30s. To start the week, temperatures will be below
average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR to some MVFR conditions are expected during the next 24
hours. For this overnight, mainly VFR conditions will continue
with high and mid level cloudiness. By Wednesday morning, MVFR
ceilings are expected for MFD, CLE, CAK, and YNG. Lower end
MVFR ceilings will be likely at ERI by tomorrow morning lasting
into the evening. Scattered light rain/snow showers will be
possible around ERI during the day causing visibility reductions
of 3sm to 5sm. Winds will remain elevated over the next 24
hours starting from the southwest 12 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 25 knots. Winds will become more westerly by Wednesday
morning through the rest of the TAF period. The gusts will relax
Wednesday evening after sunset.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions will continue in
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania as lake effect
showers return on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning has been cancelled and is replaced with a Small
Craft Advisory.

Another uptick expected in the southwest winds today to 25-35kts,
and 8-12ft waves in the open waters of Lake Erie east of the
islands and 3-6ft west. Winds become northwesterly as a cold front
tracks through at 25-30kts, and wave heights tonight at 5-8ft.
These northwest winds gradually diminish through the end of the
week to around 10kts by Friday morning. Wave heights will
decrease accordingly as well to less than 2ft by Friday
afternoon. Winds become southerly/offshore Saturday increasing
to 10-20kts and wave heights away from shore 1-3ft. Stout
increases in winds expected Sunday behind a cold front 20-30kts
once again where Small Craft Advisories will be likely.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-
     143.
     Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...77
MARINE...26