430
FXUS61 KCLE 060123
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
923 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary across central Ohio tonight
and Friday before pushing south Friday night and Saturday as
high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes. A warm front
will lift across the region Sunday and Sunday night as low
pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low will pull a cold
front across the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures as they are a bit
cooler than previously forecast. With that shift, opted to lower
overnight lows a degree or two across the area. No other changes
were needed with this update.

630 PM Update...
Pulse convection continues to impact primarily areas along and
south of US30 this evening with the ongoing primary threat
being heavy rainfall. Cores within these storms have generally
stayed below 20kft, allowing for limited potential for hail
development. The primary convective threat would be gusty winds
as any developed core collapse, however these are expected to be
infrequent given the marginal instability and lack of shear.
The primary driver of this pulse convection is a very slow
moving cold front that currently extends from near Lake County
southwest towards Marion County. Showers that interact with this
boundary have the greatest potential of becoming severe.

Aside from the ongoing concerns, opted to add patchy fog
potential to the forecast for areas roughly along and east of
I71 for tonight. Dewpoints linger in the mid to upper 60s with
surface temperatures quickly cooling, so expecting some patchy
fog to develop overnight. Although casting a wide net for the
fog potential, it is important to note that the patchy fog would
occur outside of any showers and thunderstorms, but given the
uncertainty in precisely where those showers would be, opted to
include both wx types. No other changes were needed with this
update.

Previous Discussion...
Mid afternoon surface analysis places the cold front from
roughly the southern shore of Lake Erie down the I-71 corridor,
with a low-level wind shift clearly noted in regional METARS.
The old band of showers is still slowly sagging east and
southeastward along the front, but renewed convective
development has been taking place over the past 90 minutes from
about Meadville to Marion. This is where sunshine earlier today
allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s, which when
combined with fairly deep low-level moisture allowed for MLCAPE
values of 500-1000 J/Kg in a narrow ribbon. This is weak
buoyancy for June, largely due to poor mid-level lapse rates,
but this differential heating boundary ahead of the main front
combined with just enough instability and what appears to be a
weak mid-level shortwave has allowed for convection. The
limited instability will keep any severe threat localized late
this afternoon, but a pocket of 30-35 knot effective bulk shear
and steeper low-level lapse rates in this area could lead to
isolated wind damage as well as some hail in the briefly taller
cores. Overall, there will be a lack of convective organization.
The bigger hazard through this evening will be locally heavy
rainfall. Low-level moisture pooling as the cold front becomes
quasi-stationary over the region will result in PWATS of 1.50 to
1.75 inches (90th percentile per NAEFS climatology for June
5-6), and this combined with a skinny CAPE profile, deep warm
cloud layer, and the stalling front becoming parallel to the
deep layer WSW flow will lead to repeated convective development
with efficient rainfall. There is uncertainty on where the
exact placement of the stalled boundary will be, but it should
orient near the US 30 corridor later this evening through
tonight.

The forecast remains complicated on the placement of the front
and resultant placement of convection tonight and Friday. HREF
members suggest convection will die out with nocturnal cooling
overnight, leaving mainly scattered showers across the area, but
a weak wave of surface low pressure will slowly ride along the
front from east central Indiana this evening to western
Pennsylvania by Friday evening. This wave is driven by the left
exit of a 70-80 knot H3 jet streak rounding the base of a
slightly stronger mid/upper shortwave trough progressing through
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. As the low approaches, the
front may jog northward slightly late tonight and Friday, with
the aforementioned jet support focusing additional convective
development Friday afternoon. Placement of this convection is
uncertain, with certain HREF members (HRRR and ARW for example)
developing convection closer to the lake compared to others
remaining much farther south. Instability and shear profiles
will be very similar to today, so expect loosely organized
multicell clusters capable of locally damaging winds and hail,
but there is again uncertainty in whether the storms will remain
near US 30 or develop farther north depending on how far north
the front drifts. At this time, the SWODY2 Marginal Risk for
southern areas looks reasonable. Locally heavy rainfall from
repeated storms/training will again be the bigger hazard hence
the day 2 marginal ERO.

High pressure building down across the Great Lakes Friday night
will finally start to push the boundary south of the region,
with drier conditions developing from north to south. Highs will
range from the low to mid 70s Friday, with lows in the low 60s
tonight cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will begin to build into the region Saturday and most
locations will remain dry for the start of the short term period,
although there is some potential for a few stray showers across far
southeastern zones. The next chance of showers will arrive Saturday
night and especially Sunday and Sunday night as the next shortwave
and a warm front cross the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a
weakening surface low will track somewhere across the Ohio Valley
and possibly over the local area. There`s still some uncertainty
with the track of the low, but currently thinking there will be
sufficient lift/moisture to warrant at least chance PoPs across the
area for Sunday. Will continue to refine rain chances as confidence
increases in subsequent updates. High temps will be in the 70s
throughout the weekend with lows in the 50s and lower 60s
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough will dig into the region early next week with a
surface cold front crossing the local area at some point on Monday.
The upper trough will linger over the region through as late as
Tuesday before exiting to the east no later than early Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible ahead of and along this
front with scattered showers remaining possible in lingering
troughing into Tuesday. Dry weather will return for Wednesday and
Thursday as the trough departs to the east and ridge builds in from
the west.

High temperatures will generally be in the 70s early next week with
highs beginning to warm Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread lower
80s may return by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Gradually diminishing conditions are expected to push east
tonight with KTOL and KFDY already experiencing persistent IFR
ceilings and visibilities. An abundance of low level moisture
has the potential to negatively impact terminals tonight and
into Friday in two ways. The first is that this moisture will
allow for ceilings elsewhere to gradually lower into IFR
heights. The second is for the potential development of patchy
fog with the weakening winds decreasing mixing potential. Caveat
with the patchy fog is the uncertainty of where current showers
will persist, which would limit fog potential. Opted to lower
all terminals to IFR conditions overnight, but will need to
monitor trends in the forecast for further confidence.

Currently, scattered pulse convection continues to impact
terminals south of US-30 this evening with heavy rain reducing
visibilities to MVFR and IFR distances. Isolated rumbles of
thunder are possible with this the strongest storms, however
given limited atmospheric support for convection, opted to only
include thunderstorm mention in TEMPOs for terminals. The storms
should weaken and become more scattered into the overnight
hours, making timing for individual terminals very low in
confidence so opted to handle overnight precipitation with VCSH.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase again Friday
afternoon for KCAK, KYNG, and KERI ahead of the nearly
stationary boundary, again possibly diminishing visibilities at
times.

Light and variable winds overnight will gradually become more
northerly at 5-10 knots on Friday as a meandering cold front
sags further south.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR expected with scattered showers
and thunderstorms through Friday night. Non-VFR may return in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds 10 knots or less will continue through Friday
evening before becoming more northerly Friday night through much of
Saturday. Winds once again shift to the northeast as a warm front
approaches on Sunday with flow becoming more southwesterly behind
the front Sunday night. Winds may increase to about 15 knots Sunday
night through Monday, but at this time marine headlines are not
anticipated through early next week. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms are possible into Friday with additional showers/storms
possible Sunday through as late as Tuesday. Any thunderstorms could
result in higher winds/waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...04/Garuckas
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...15