617
FXUS61 KCLE 041739
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1239 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front will sweep through the area early this
morning. High pressure will build in later today into Friday.
Another cold front will through the area on Sunday. High
pressure will build in late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main weather story for the near term forecast now through
Friday will be the quick shot of Arctic air and the coldest
temperatures yet so far this winter season. As of 2 AM, the
Arctic front was just entering northwest Ohio. Ahead of the
front, there have been a few bands of light snow in the west-
southwest flow aloft from around the Cleveland area up to around
Erie PA this morning. We have already hit our 24 hour maximum
temperatures for today. The Arctic front will slide through the
area later this morning with a wind shift from the northwest 15
to 25 mph and gusty. Temperatures will mainly stay in the lower
to middle 20s today. Wind chills will be in the teens to single
digits later today. There may be a bring burst of light snow as
the front pushes through later this morning. As the flow becomes
northwesterly later this morning, there may be a few scattered
lake effect snow showers or brief bands of LES that tries to
develop this morning through the early afternoon. This brief
period of some lake effect will be mainly for the primary
snowbelt with light amounts possible of 1 or 2 inches. Inland
Erie County PA may see between 1 to 3 inches.

The center of the Arctic airmass or high pressure will build in
over northern Ohio this evening. Skies will clear out and
overnight low temperatures will fall into the single digits by
early Friday morning. Winds will be lighter overnight but any
light breeze would cause wind chills to be near or slightly
below zero late tonight into Friday morning. High pressure will
still be around on Friday with partly cloudy skies and afternoon
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The overall weather pattern looks to remain cold and a little
active this weekend. A large upper level trough will remain over
the Great Lakes region into much of the eastern CONUS this
weekend. Another cold front will be on the way late Saturday
night into Sunday. Ahead of the cold front on Saturday, there
will be a light southwest flow with temperatures moderating into
the lower and middle 30s Saturday afternoon. A shortwave trough
will pinwheel around the base of the larger upper level trough
on Sunday. Another blast of colder air will arrive with a cold
frontal passage on Sunday. There will be a chance of light
snow this weekend from Saturday into Sunday. There will be a
better shot of light snowfall on Sunday into Sunday night with
some scattered lake effect behind the cold front. Some light
snowfall accumulations may be possible in the primary and
secondary Snowbelt this weekend. Sunday high temperatures will
stay below freezing in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Sunday night
low temperatures will be back down in the teens and a few single
digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the Midwest into the Upper Ohio
Valley on Monday. There could be some lingering lake effect
snow showers early Monday across the Snowbelt. High temperatures
on Monday will be very cold in the middle to upper 20s. Wind
chills early Monday will be in the single digits to teens.
Temperatures will slowly moderate back into the 30s going into
the middle of next week. Another clipper like system will move
through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday with
another chance for light snow and a cold frontal passage by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W`erly flow aloft and very subtle, embedded disturbances affect
northern OH and NW PA through 18Z/Fri. At the surface, a ridge
continues to impact our region as the embedded high pressure
center moves from the Upper MS Valley to Atlantic waters near
Cape Cod. NW`erly to N`erly surface winds around 5 to 10 knots
are expected to become light and variable or calm during the
22Z/Thurs hour. However, a S`erly land breeze around 5 to 10
knots is expected to develop along and within several miles of
Lake Erie, including KCLE and KERI, after ~01Z/Fri. After
~14Z/Fri, surface winds become S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15
knots region-wide.

VFR visibility and primarily dry weather are expected through
18Z/Fri. Isolated lake-effect snow flurries streaming SE`ward
from Lake Erie across NE OH and NW PA should dissipate by
21Z/Thurs. Scattered to broken lake-effect stratocumuli with
bases near 3kft to 4kft AGL will dissipate from west to east
over northern OH and NW PA this evening through the first couple
hours of Fri morning as the ridge at/near the surface builds
E`ward, which will cause mean low-level flow over/downwind of
Lake Erie to veer gradually from NW`erly to S`erly. In addition,
scattered cumuli are expected through ~21Z/Thurs and after
~15Z/Fri.

Outlook...Periodic snow and/or rain showers with non-VFR are
expected this Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will gradually improve from west to east this
afternoon and evening as northwest winds subside to 10 knots or
less overnight with high pressure building across the region.
Rough marine conditions are expected to return across the
eastern basin of Lake Erie on Saturday as a cold front ushers in
west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A brief quiet spell across the
lake is expected on Sunday, before the next potential for Small
Craft conditions arrives late Sunday into Monday with north flow
of 15 to 20 knots. A stronger system may approach the region on
Tuesday with southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Kahn