068
FXUS61 KCLE 062000
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
300 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain over Lake Erie through Sunday as weak
low pressure tracks east-northeast along it. The front will sweep
southeast across the area Sunday evening, followed by high pressure on
Monday. Stronger low pressure moves through the southern Great Lakes
on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-Light snow accumulations are likely primarily north of U.S. 30 on
 Sunday, with impacts expected to be minor. Minor lake-enhanced snow
 lingers into Sunday night south of Lake Erie, ending by Monday.
-Patchy freezing drizzle is possible (medium confidence) early Sunday
 morning ahead of the arrival of steadier snow, which may lead to
 some slick spots.

We will be cloudy and chilly (banner early December weather for the
region) but mainly dry through most of tonight. A very subtle mid-
level trough will push off of Lake Erie and into far Northeast OH and
Northwest PA early this evening, which may touch off some very light
snow (possibly mixed with freezing drizzle due to a lack of moisture
and lift above the -10C level) between approximately 4-8 PM. Given
very minor amounts of precipitation am expecting very little if any
impact, with a low risk (10-20%) for enough freezing drizzle to glaze
untreated surfaces across the higher terrain of Northwest PA. Some
minor lake effect snow then should focus over the lake (possibly
grazing the lakeshore from Lake County points northeast) through the
night as winds back southwest, with potential for up to another inch
of snow near the Erie County PA lakeshore overnight if this lake
effect pushes onshore more than currently expected. Lows tonight will
not drop too much given plenty of clouds and some weak warm air
advection developing overnight...mainly to a 25-30 degree range.

A shortwave will cross the region Sunday afternoon as weak surface
low pressure tracks east-northeast along the stationary front that
will remain near Lake Erie. The front sweeps southeast Sunday evening
behind the low pressure. Low-level moisture increases late tonight
into Sunday morning ahead of the deeper moisture/lift aloft arriving
from the west. This leads to another brief window with low to medium
confidence potential (20-40%) for flurries or freezing drizzle across
parts of the area early Sunday morning. Given the timing and a colder
ground now, this will need to be monitored for patchy impacts on
untreated surfaces...though again, we`re not talking much
precipitation and confidence is not high enough for any enhanced
messaging at the moment beyond a forecast mention. In terms of the
main window of precipitation/snow on Sunday, we`re looking at mainly
weak lift focused in the low-levels with this system as surface
temperatures warm towards or a bit above freezing during the day. Snow
should arrive across Northwest OH fairly quickly after sunrise and
spread into eastern OH/western PA by late morning or early afternoon.
While most of the area will see snow and POPs have been pushed up a
bit higher to reflect that likelihood, the snow looks rather light and
perhaps even "showery" with snow:liquid ratios likely <12:1. QPF
amounts will range from 0.10-0.20" north to <0.10" south. This adds up
to light potential snow accumulations, ranging from 1-2" across our
northern counties to 1" or less elsewhere. The greatest potential for
snow to stick to roads will likely be across Northwest OH Sunday
morning given earlier arrival of the snow and perhaps a brief window
of steadier snow farther west in the morning, with the snow likely
not doing much of anything to the roads elsewhere during the day.

Most of the area dries out pretty quickly into Sunday night, though
weak synoptic lift lingering across Northeast OH and Northwest PA into
the first few hours of Sunday night will combine with modest lake
enhancement (as winds turn north-northwest behind the front and low-
levels quickly cool) to keep mainly light snow showers going there.
Synoptic moisture quickly exits through Sunday evening, leaving lake
effect flurries and snow showers into the night that will quickly
dissipate themselves as high pressure builds in. Some flurries may
persist into Monday morning, especially if a Lake Huron connection
that is hinted at by some models develops, though any snow should not
be at all impactful by then. Am not expecting much additional snow
Sunday night, perhaps another inch or so across some of the higher
terrain in the snowbelt...primarily falling in the evening. However,
with surface temperatures quickly dropping on their way to overnight
lows in the 10s and to near 20, locations that see accumulating snow
after sunset could see untreated surfaces become slick/icy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-Light snow possible (30-60%) across Northeast OH and Northwest PA
 Tuesday afternoon ahead of a warm front.
-Precipitation chances (currently favoring a rain/snow mix) ramp up
 from the west later Tuesday night area-wide.

Quite weather is expected for Monday and Monday night as high pressure
slides through the southern Great Lakes. Highs on Monday will be cold
in the mid to upper 20s, with lows mainly in the 10s (some single
digits in colder/outlying areas) Monday night.

A shortwave will move across the central/southern Great Lakes on
Tuesday as a warm front lifts across the area. This brings potential
for snow along and ahead of the warm front, especially across
Northeast OH and Northwest PA during the afternoon and early evening
with lower odds for a bit of snow to clip Northwest OH Tuesday morning/
midday. With highs expected to reach the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday
(slightly cooler in the terrain of Northwest PA) and light snow
primarily occurring in the afternoon, impacts are expected to be low.
Our southwestern counties are expected to remain dry on Tuesday.

Tuesday night starts fairly dry, though a more potent clipper
approaches from the west-northwest overnight into early Wednesday.
Large scale ascent (largely courtesy of warm advection ahead of the
system) and moisture quickly ramp up from the west overnight Tuesday
night into early Wednesday, bringing another round of precipitation
later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Lows will only
bottom out in the upper 20s/lower 30s Tuesday evening before warming
Tuesday night, with temperatures aloft also expected to warm. This
suggests rain will become an increasingly favored precipitation type
outside of the higher terrain of Northwest PA overnight Tuesday night,
with fairly light QPF amounts (generally 0.05-0.20", highest across
our northeastern counties). The forecast currently calls for a
rain/snow mix across most of the area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning, with snow accumulations likely to be minimal to
none for most of the area given the expected warming temperatures and
mix/change to rain for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-Potent clipper system exits to the east on Wednesday and pulls a cold
 front across the area. Gusty winds and rain/snow showers are
 possible, with some lingering lake effect into Wednesday night.
-A cold and potentially active pattern is expected to settle in for
 the end of the week and start of the weekend, though confidence in
 details is on the lower side this far out. The greatest potential for
 impactful snow will likely end up downwind of Lake Erie.

Precipitation ahead of the clipper discussed in the short term will
likely continue into Wednesday morning, especially across Northeast OH
and Northwest PA. Temperatures will continue to support a rain/snow
mix with likely minimal impact for most, but perhaps mainly or all
snow in the higher terrain of the snowbelt where light accumulations
are possible. The clipper exits to the east-northeast Wednesday
afternoon and evening, dragging the system`s cold front across the
area. A few snow or rain/snow showers could accompany the front area-
wide. The airmass behind the front Wednesday night into early Thursday
will not be all that cold (850mb temps dipping to around -10C) with
winds expected to start backing again quickly into Thursday, so we`re
not looking at significant lake effect behind this front. However,
the combination of some lake enhancement to any snow showers along the
front itself and a modest amount of lake effect behind it could allow
for some accumulating snow (likely below advisory amounts) across the
snowbelt late Wednesday into early Thursday. Locations outside of the
snowbelt will generally see minimal accumulation, with perhaps some
dustings (<1") with any snow showers along the front late Wednesday.

There is good agreement that a longwave trough (with a healthy tap of
Arctic air) will deepen over the Great Lakes to end the week and
start the weekend, though there is less agreement in the timing of the
arrival of the deeper cold airmass and in any shortwaves/clippers
that will likely move through the region between Thursday and
Saturday. The take home message is that another period of well-below-
average temperatures (highs in the 10s/20s, lows in the single
digits/10s) is likely starting Friday or Saturday. Accumulating snow,
particularly downwind of the lake but possibly area-wide with any
clippers, is possible between late Thursday and Saturday, though with
generally lower confidence in any specifics at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
An expansive MVFR cloud deck is in place across the region and
will impact the terminals for much of the TAF period. A weak
cold front extends from low pressure over James Bay and will
enhance a band of snows showers developing over Lake Erie this
afternoon. This band may push into ERI after 20Z and have tried
to time a window of light snow showers late this afternoon and
into tonight. Timing and intensity will likely need to be
refined with this feature. These snow showers are expected to
lift north of the terminal late tonight.

An area of low pressure tracking out of the Plains states will
weaken as it approaches the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This is
likely to bring snow to portions of the area on Sunday morning
and have this reaching TOL by 12Z, CLE by 14Z, and ERI by 17Z.
A few hours of IFR visibilities are likely at terminals in NW
Ohio and downwind of Lake Erie at CLE/ERI. Elsewhere other
terminals are likely to experience MVFR visibilities in light
snow and mist. Can not rule out a little patchy freezing drizzle
with the low level cloudiness through the period and included a
prob group at CAK for an hour or so on Sunday morning. West
southwest winds near 10 knots today will decrease and back to
the south tonight. A wind shift to the northwest is likely
between 16-21Z Sunday as a cold front pushes south.

Outlook...Periods of IFR is expected areawide with widespread
light snow on Sunday. Non-VFR is expected again with snow on
Tuesday and a rain/snow mix on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots on Lake Erie today will veer
to westerly and decrease to 10 to 20 knots tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters east of Cleveland
until 10 PM this evening. Waves will drop off overnight as a ridge
builds across the lake. Another low pressure system tracking out of
the Plains will weaken as it moves towards the Ohio Valley on
Sunday, pulling a cold front south across Lake Erie. Winds will
shift to the northwest and then north at 15-25 knots and Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed again east of the Lake Erie Islands
Sunday night and continuing into Monday morning on the Central
Basin.

Next we turn on our attention to an active mid-week period. Low
pressure will move east across the Central Great Lakes on Tuesday
and southerly winds on Lake Erie will increase to 25-35 knots. Winds
remain elevated Tuesday night then ramp up a little more as a
stronger low pressure system traverses the Central Great Lakes but
is displaced just south of the first one. Both the Tuesday and
Wednesday system are accompanied by a strong low level jet and could
potentially see a low end gale with either or both. Winds shift to
the west and northwest behind the system Wednesday night. Will
continue to monitor the track of these system for possible Gale
conditions and Small Craft Advisories that will follow on the east
half of Lake Erie. Low water conditions are likely again on the
western basin of Lake Erie Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10