223
FXUS61 KCLE 041900
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across the area into Saturday. A cold
front will approach the region from the west on Sunday into Monday,
followed by another area of high pressure for Tuesday. A stationary
boundary to the south will begin to lift north on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the near term period will be the potential for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For the rest of
today, the area of interest is across far Northwest Ohio (Toledo
vicinity). For Saturday afternoon and evening, the area of interest
will be further east across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.

For the shower and thunderstorm potential the rest of today, main
focus will be along an outflow boundary laid out by nocturnal
convection towards the west across Northwest Ohio and southern
Michigan. Already starting to see some agitated cu develop along
this outflow boundary this afternoon with the highest thunderstorm
chances in the Toledo area expected between 6 to 8 PM. Although
severe weather is not expected, can`t rule out heavy rain and gusty
winds around 40 mph with any stronger storms. Precipitation chances
further south and east will be limited due to drier air to the east
ahead of a warm front and subsidence resulting from high pressure
across the Ohio Valley to the south.

For Saturday afternoon and evening, the warm front will continue
lifting northeast through the area, in addition to a lake breeze
developing across the eastern lakeshore. Surface convergence and
increased low-level moisture should result in isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours
across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Once again,
not anticipating any severe weather, though certainly can`t rule out
brief bursts of heavy rain with any stronger storms.

Above-average temperatures are expected behind the warm front for
Saturday with heat indices increasing into the mid-90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the short term period will be tracking an eastward-
advancing cold front for late Sunday into Monday. The atmosphere
will be primed for torrential rain with PWATs approaching 2.0 inches
Sunday night into Monday. Although southwest mid-level flow isn`t
particularly strong (20 to 25 knots), certainly can`t rule out a
stronger storm or two, especially late Sunday afternoon or evening
across Northwest Ohio when diurnal favorability will be at its
highest.

For Monday, there remains timing differences on the cold front
progression east and southeast through the area. At this time, it
appears the best chances for additional afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front would be
across the south and southeast portion of the area closer to the US-
30 corridor. Once again, torrential rainfall would be the main
threat with PWATs approaching 2.0 inches.

Above-average temperatures will continue for Sunday with heat
indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s and perhaps a few isolated
spots briefly reaching 100 degrees. Although cooler on Monday in the
80s, it will continue to feel muggy with dew points around 70
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model guidance continues to trend towards a dry forecast for Tuesday
as the cold front moves just to the south of the area while high
pressure builds across the Great Lakes to the north. HOwever, a more
unsettled and wet forecast is becoming favored for Wednesday and
Thursday as the front stalls across the Ohio Valley and will
gradually lift north on Wednesday into Thursday. Much of this
activity will be focused around the front, particularly in the
afternoon and evening hours with little overall upper-level forcing
present.

Seasonable to slightly above-average and humid weather is expected
for the long term period with daily highs in the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Aloft, W`erly to NW`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect
our region through 18Z/Sat as a ridge builds from the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, the ridge exits slowly SE`ward and will
allow a warm front to sweep N`ward through our region between
~06Z/Sat and ~12Z/Sat. Primarily VFR and fair weather are
expected through the TAF period. However, residual outflow from
thunderstorms that have since dissipated over/near southern Lake
Michigan may trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms
over/near the MI/OH border in our region between ~20Z/Fri and
~00Z/Sat. This includes KTOL. These storms may produce brief and
erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots. In addition, a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms should develop ahead of one
of the aforementioned disturbances aloft this evening, persist
generally E`ward across much of Lake Erie tonight, and impact
far-NE OH and NW PA between ~08Z/Sat and ~14Z/Sat. This includes
KERI. Showers and storms should be accompanied by brief MVFR to
IFR.

Outside of showers and thunderstorms, our regional surface
winds trend variable in direction and around 5 knots through
~12Z/Sat. However, N`erly to NE`erly surface winds around 5 to
10 knots and associated with a Lake Erie lake breeze are
expected to impact KCLE and KERI until ~00Z/Sat. After ~12Z/Sat,
our regional surface winds are expected to become S`erly to
SW`erly around 5 to 10 knots. However, after ~14Z/Sat, the
development of another Lake Erie lake breeze should cause these
winds to veer to WSW`erly along and within several miles of the
lakeshore, along and roughly east of the longitude to KBKL.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday through this Wednesday, especially
during the afternoon and early evening hours of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of 3 feet or less and wind speeds of 5 to 15 knots are
expected on Lake Erie through this Wednesday. A high pressure
ridge exits slowly SE`ward from the Lake Erie region through
Sunday, which will allow a warm front to sweep N`ward across
Lake Erie tonight. A lake breeze will dissipate early this
evening and give way to primarily E`erly to SE`erly winds, which
will then veer to S`erly to SW`erly overnight tonight with the
warm front passage. Primarily S`erly to SW`erly winds then
persist through Sunday as Lake Erie remains along the
northwestern flank of the departing ridge. SW`erly winds should
veer gradually to N`erly during Sunday evening through Monday
evening as a cold front drifts SE`ward across the lake and is
followed by another ridge building from the Upper Midwest. Winds
should become variable in direction on Tuesday through
Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge eventually exits E`ward
and a weak trough begins to overspread Lake Erie from the west
on Wednesday. Winds should trend onshore during the late
morning through early evening hours of Tuesday and Wednesday due
to lake breeze development.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka