723
FXUS61 KCLE 031336
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
936 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and frontal boundaries oscillating back and forth
through the area will bring waves of showers and thunderstorms
with moderate to heavy rain at times through the weekend.
Conditions then turn cold early next week with light snow
possibly making a brief return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 AM Update... Adjusted PoPs as a line of showers move west to
east across Northern Ohio. Showers will be quick moving and
expect minimal impacts and should exit to the east by midday. The
rest of the day will be fairly dry. No other major changes to
the forecast.

Previous Discussion...
The synoptic scale upper level pattern through the near term,
and at least the short term also, is going to continue to be
dominated by a persistent deep trough over the four corners
region with southwesterly flow through the Mississippi and Ohio
River Valleys. This will keep a continuous feed of low level
moisture into the southern Great Lakes with oscillating frontal
boundaries carrying waves of low pressure through them, and
thus, multiple rounds of rain. For the current near term period,
cold front will push the extensive line of convection through
the CWA by morning, with lingering light amounts through around
the noon hour. After this second wave of moderate/heavy rainfall
since Wednesday morning, will get another needed hydro break
with some recovery time this afternoon. 18Z Thursday to 00Z
Friday is largely dry with POPs getting reintroduced this
evening. Cold front will begin to lift back northward through
the Ohio Valley as a warm front Thursday night into Friday,
although staying south of the CWA. Strong low/mid level
frontogenesis sets up in this area north of the warm front. The
biggest question will be the northward extent, in which the NAM
is most aggressive in putting the highest concentration of the
low/mid level forcing in our CWA. Much of the other guidance
keeps it more south of the CWA, and will go with this favored
solution for now. Another brief period of drier weather for
Friday keeping most of the precipitation south through 21Z or
so, then lifting back north again as the warm front nears the
southern CWA border with yet another round of rain into the
short term forecast period. Temperatures remain on the milder
side for today, but cool into the 50s for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The low and mid level flow largely remains parallel to the frontal
boundary cutting through the CWA, in this case, a warm front that
continues to slowly push northward. This is the next round of
convection/rain Friday night, assisted by the low level jet over
65kts again now that the CWA is back in the warm sector. Cold front
then drops back through again 12-18Z Saturday. One final wave of low
pressure to ride up along the frontal boundary towards the Ohio
Valley, but by now, the four corners trough is exiting, weakening,
and now awaiting absorption into a larger trough axis to the north
that is dominating the middle third of the country. With the upper
level energy exiting, the surface low pressure system will do so as
well. Colder air will also begin to make its presence known Sunday
as cold air advection has a better chance to anchor into place over
the southern Great Lakes. Prior to the cold front Saturday, 60s
should be prevalent for the CWA. Total QPF from this morning through
Saturday night remain at 2.5 to 4 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Colder in the long term and back into a snow shower potential after
a sharp cold front drops southward through the lakes Monday with a
reinforcing shot of colder air. Late Monday night into Tuesday
becomes more winter like, and snow shower potential ramps up,
possibly for the Tuesday morning commute. Cannot ignore the
potential for light accumulations during this time frame, and highs
largely in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the CWA. Improvement
expected Wednesday and Thursday with gradual airmass modification
under high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Break in the convection for several hours today with MVFR
ceilings in the post cold front environment. These should
eventually lift before lowering again later tonight when the
cold front that has come through lifts back north as a warm
front. Expect showers to return to the region after 00Z tonight.
Winds gusty this morning 20-30kts, easing later today. Where
winds do not gust this morning, LLWS is a low end possibility,
but only carrying this in a couple of the TAFs. Winds under
10kts after 00Z tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings may continue across the region
into Friday with some non-VFR visibility possible in showers
and storms, mainly towards the southern part of the forecast
area. Non-VFR more likely areawide in showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into Saturday with non-VFR ceilings continuing into
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually ease out of the southwest to 10-15kts
later today before turning westerly and then northwesterly
tonight at the same rate. Expect constantly varying wind
directions around 10- 15kts thanks to frontal boundaries that
travel north and south across Lake Erie with areas of low
pressure also moving through, and wave heights averaging 1-3ft
through the weekend. A late Monday cold front brings northwest
winds 20kts Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-
     027>032-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...23/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26