130
FXUS61 KCLE 190110
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
910 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridge builds back in over the southern Great Lakes through
the weekend. Low pressure system moves in early next week with
the next chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
9:10 PM Update...
Forecast remains on track with some minor updates to
temperatures and dewpoints to reflect current conditions. Still
anticipating for some patchy fog to develop across the region
early Thursday morning. Higher confidence in fog formation
remains along the I-75 corridor in addition to typical valley
fog locations.

Previous discussion...
Remnant moisture from the tropical system now over the piedmont area
and central Appalachians will likely not be able to make into into
our CWA in the form of wetting rains. Some sprinkles out in NW PA
today, but coverage is minimal and not expected to last much more
than a few hours with the now extratropical system expected to move
northeastward towards Long Island. Upper level ridge builds back
into the southern Great Lakes from the southwest, and the forecast
returns to being dry through Thursday night. Some patchy mist/fog
tonight, but the very dry surface/ground conditions will inhibit
formation to some extent. Most likely areas to see fog are the
valleys in the hillier terrain, river valleys, and then also in
northwest Ohio. Similar temperatures Thursday in this warm and dry
pattern with lesser mist/fog chances Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For the majority of the day, Friday will still be influenced by the
high pressure situated over New England. Late Friday night into
early Saturday guidance shows a shortwave traversing across the
Great Lakes region so, a slight chance of PoPs have been introduced
for the most northern and western counties of the CWA to account for
this. Can expect a rumble of thunder or two with these storms as
well. Precipitation amounts will be minimal as it`s a fairly narrow
band of moisture so most will not see much in the way of measurable
precipitation and won`t make much of a dent in the current drought
conditions.

Temperatures Saturday will be a warm one with being in the mid to
high 80s and dewpoints creeping up into the low 60s. Overnight lows
will be status quo, dipping down into the low 60s and high 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The bigger story will be a larger overall change to the pattern with
the upper level ridge breaking down starting Sunday night into
Monday. A low pressure system will develop in the mid-Mississippi
Valley and move northeast towards the Great Lakes. An accompanying
warm front that will move northward through the region with
southerly flow developing behind it. Models have slowly started to
come into agreement on when the system will enter the region, but
have some disagreement on the coverage and overall timing of it. A
bump in PoPs across the entire area was seen, though have been
capped at chance. Will continue to monitor for severe and heavy
precipitation potential.

Through the period, temperatures will trend cooler but remain in the
low to mid 80s until Wednesday when the majority will see highs in
the upper 70s. Lows will follow suit, with temperatures dropping to
the high 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Primarily VFR with clear skies across most terminals this
evening with the exception of some BKN/SCT mid to high level
clouds east of I-77. Most terminals will remain VFR through the
period with the exception of sites along and west of I-71
(TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE) where patchy MVFR fog could develop early
Thursday morning. Higher confidence in fog development and IFR
conditions at extreme western sites (TOL/FDY). Lower confidence
in fog development at CLE and MFD. Tough to drop any TEMPO vis
lower than 1SM given how dry the region has been as of late.

Light and variable flow overnight tonight will favor a
northeasterly component by daybreak Thursday with stronger
northerly flow in a lake breeze once again impacting CLE and ERI
Thursday afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Sunday. Non-VFR
possible in showers as early as Sunday night, but this is low
confidence for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will remain over the Lake with high pressure
situated to the east over New England leading to east-northeasterly
winds at 10-15 knots and waves generally 2 feet or less. Overnight
winds will shift out of the southeast before shifting back to the
east-northeast during the day. Conditions will persist through the
weekend until a more southeasterly 10-15 knot wind develops on
Sunday night. Will expect waves to be 2 feet or less during this
timeframe. A low pressure system will approach the region Monday and
winds will then become predominately out of the south. Marine
headlines are not expected for this time period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Iverson/26
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM...Kennedy
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Kennedy