095
FXUS61 KCLE 052355
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
655 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight into Thursday.
This low will briefly lift a warm front north through the area
Thursday morning, followed by a cold front Thursday evening.
High pressure will briefly return on Friday, followed by another
low pressure system for Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
5:30 PM Update...

We have increased PoPs to 100 overnight since all areas will
see at least light precip as warm air advection and resulting
isentropic ascent north of the warm front creates an overrunning
situation. The first band of precip this afternoon did not reach
the ground, but low-levels will sufficiently moisten this
evening for the larger band over southern parts of Indiana and
Ohio to reach the ground as it moves into the region. This will
mainly be freezing rain as the warm air advection leads to a
deepening warm nose, with easterly flow keeping low-level cold
air in place north of the warm front. Lowered temperatures and
dew points this evening through the night to reflect current
trends, and this results in slightly higher ice accretion, but
still generally 0.10 to 0.20 inches. The highest amounts will
be in NW Ohio and along the central highlands.

Original Discussion...

Our weather is relatively quiet this afternoon and that should
continue through the early evening. The weather conditions will
become more impactful late this evening into the overnight as
an icy wintry mix moves in from west to east across the region.
A mid level wave or trough over this Midwest this afternoon will
track across the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley tonight into
Thursday. Regional radars are showing light precipitation
developing aloft over northern Ohio but not reaching the ground
due to drier air near ther surface. Dewpoint depressions are
averaging around 15F degrees. There is an area of precipitation
that is more convective and rapidly expanding southwest of our
area across SW Ohio and central Indiana. That wave of precip
will continue to track northeast into our local area later this
evening into overnight. Temperatures will start out in the upper
20s to around 30 degrees as precip moves later this evening. We
are expecting light freezing rain and some light sleet possibly
to mix with the onset of the precipitation tonight. The layer of
air that is below freezing near the surface will gradually
become thinner as the night goes along. Light freezing rain will
be the main wintry weather overnight with most area seeing
about 3 to 6 hours of those conditions. Surface temperatures
will gradually warm up above freezing from south to north late
tonight into the very early Thursday morning. The freezing rain
will become just rain for most locations by 12z in the morning.
Overall there are no significant changes in the forecast or
with amounts. We are still expected about .10" to .20" of an icy
glaze. Impacts to travel will be likely on any untreated roads
and surfaces overnight before temperatures warm up above
freezing Thursday morning.

Temperatures will warm up into the 40s on Thursday. The
precipitation will gradually end from west to early Thursday
morning. There may be a period of light drizzle or mist along
with low stratus Thursday morning following the exit of the
main precipitation. After a brief warm up into the 40s on
Thursday, another cold front will come through later in the day.
High pressure and colder weather moves back in Thursday morning
with low temperatures in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds across the northern Great Plains on Friday
and will push eastward through the day on Saturday. There will
be some low level moisture that will allow for some clouds
throughout the day, but should see some sunshine peeking through
most of the day. Temperatures Friday will be in the low
30/upper 20s for highs and a touch warmer on Saturday into the
low to mid 30s. Overnight lows will be down into the low 20s.

The main talking point in the short term will be the wintry
precipitation Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours. An upper
level low will develop across the central plains early Saturday and
move into the Ohio Valley late Saturday. The associated surface low
will be following the same path and deepening as it moves into the
region. Models have held the low to the same strength over the past
couple of runs and continued with the large swath of precipitation
across the region Saturday afternoon and overnight. As mentioned
above, there will be multiple precipitation types expected. Any
precipitation will start out as snow mid day Saturday as
temperatures throughout the column will be below freezing. As the
low approaches, temperatures will start to rise starting with the
low levels, then at the surface for the southern counties. The
northern areas may touch freezing or be slightly above come Saturday
afternoon/evening. With the warm nose, there will be a transition to
sleet and freezing precipitation Saturday evening. There will be low
to moderate ice accumulations during this period. Ensemble guidance
still has a 30-40% probability of seeing any ice accumulation across
the area, with areas along US Route 30 having a little higher of a
probability. Into late Saturday night, the southern most counties
will transition to rain shortly as the surface temperatures catch up
to the warm nose above. Temperatures will start to fall as the low
moves off east and precipitation should transition back to snow.
There is some uncertainty in how quickly the surface can warm which
will determine the length of time there will be freezing
precipitation/sleet falling. In addition, and movement north or
south for the track of the surface low will determine the extent of
mixed precipitation, but there is good confidence in the current
track.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As the surface low from Saturday night pushes off east, high
pressure will build across the Great Lakes region for Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures will be stay cool though, with highs in the low
to mid 30s and overnight lows in the low 20s. On Tuesday, the next
chance for precipitation will move through the region and lasting
into Wednesday morning for most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A messy aviation forecast is on tap for tonight into Thursday
morning as a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain develops
north of a warm front. This set of TAFs are similar to the
previous, but moved up the arrival of precip an hour earlier at
all terminals based on the latest radar trends and model
guidance. There will be a 4 to 5 hour window of sleet and
freezing rain at all terminals, with any sleet quickly going to
freezing rain. This will cause cigs and vis to rapidly fall to
MVFR and IFR. Precip will quickly end from west to east in the
09-13Z Thursday timeframe, but drizzle and fog is expected
behind the steady precip for several hours Thursday morning,
leading to LIFR. This is especially likely at KFDY, KMFD, KCAK,
and KYNG. Conditions will gradually improve late Thursday
morning through the afternoon, with MVFR likely by late
afternoon.

ENE winds of 5-10 knots early tonight will gradually turn S to
SE late, then SW by sunrise Thursday. SW winds will increase to
10-15 knots late Thursday morning through the afternoon, with
gusts of 20-25 knots at times.

Outlook...Non-VFR will return in widespread rain and/or snow on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
due to extensive ice cover.

Winds over the lake will be fairly light out of the east-southeast
at 5-10 knots through the early overnight hours tonight. Low
pressure will traverse the region overnight and the winds will shift
to be predominantly out of the west. There will be a tighter
pressure gradient for a short period of time Thursday evening into
Friday morning that will increase winds to 20-25 knots in the
eastern basin of Lake Erie. Winds will the subside to 10-15 knots
throughout the day Friday into Saturday. Another low pressure system
will traverse the region on Saturday, but winds should remain fairly
light below 15 knots and winds will shift out of the west-northwest
come Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ003-006>011-017>022-027>033-036>038-047.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     OHZ012>014-023-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Griffin
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...23