393
FXUS61 KCLE 302034
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east through the eastern Great Lakes on
Wednesday, extending a cold front across the region Wednesday
evening into Thursday. Weak high pressure will begin to build
across the area late Thursday and may persist through much of
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the near term period will be periods of heavy
lake effect snow through Wednesday night and the potential for
snow squalls late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winter
Weather Advisories have been hoisted from 1 PM Wednesday through
7 AM Thursday for the secondary snowbelt, including adjacent
Counties such as Wayne, Stark, and Mahoning. All other headlines
remain unchanged with this update, though snowfall amounts have
been increased, particularly near northern Ashtabula (OH) and
Erie (PA) Counties where an additional 1.5 to 2 feet of snow is
becoming more likely.

Lake effect snow continues across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania this afternoon as 850 mb temperatures remain cold
(-15 to -16C) with primarily northwest flow aloft. The most
potent lake effect snow band thus far is impacting portions of
far eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties and could persist over
the next several hours with surface convergence largely keeping
the band in place (W to NW flow north of the band with W to SW
flow to the south of the band). The expectation is for this band
to gradually lift north across the snowbelt late tonight into
Wednesday morning as a weak clipper sweeps through the area,
shifting low-level flow towards the southwest. Outside of the
snowbelt, generally a light snow of 1 to 3 inches is anticipated
areawide into Wednesday morning.

Attention then turns towards the potential for a long-fetch
single band to develop along or near the lakeshore of far
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania as 850 mb flow favors
a westerly direction ahead of a stronger clipper system and
cold front expected to arrive by late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Snowfall rates within the band will likely reach 1 to 2
inches per hour, contributing to up to a foot of snow by around
1 PM Wednesday. There will be a sharp gradient, with locations
just south of the main band expected to have significantly less
snow accumulation.

A stronger clipper system and cold front will then arrive across
the area late Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing an
additional 6 to 12 inches of snow across the primarily snowbelt
as northwest flow quickly shifts the single band onshore.
Confidence is high for snowfall rates to reach 1 to 2 inches
per hour, particularly across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outside of
the snowbelt, generally 2 to 5 inches is expected areawide, with
the highest amounts located generally east of the I-71
corridor. In addition to snow amounts, the environment will be
primed for snow squalls Wednesday afternoon and evening which
could result in brief whiteouts and quickly- coated roadways.
This threat is areawide, but is most likely across North and
Northeast Ohio, and into Northwest Pennsylvania (see the WPC
Key Messages graphics for a regional look at the snow squall
potential for New Year`s Eve).

Temperatures will remain cold for the near term period with wind
chills in the teens to single digits. Temperatures will be the
coldest late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning behind
the cold front, with wind chills near or slightly below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will likely continue across the primary
snowbelt Thursday morning into the early afternoon as 850 mb
temperatures fall to around -20C with little to no boundary
layer shear in place. A trough will swing east through the Upper
Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday, though the current
thinking is that any lake effect snow would appear to favor
western NY given strong southwest surface flow.

Cold temperatures will persist for the short term period with
wind chills in the teens to single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A quieter, albeit cold, weather pattern is favored to persist
for the long term period as several areas of weak high pressure
build across the region. Aloft, the region is expected to remain
wedged between an upper-level trough to the northeast and a
weakly-defined ridge to the west.

Temperatures will warm up slightly into the low 30s, though will
still remain below average for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow continues across the typical snowbelt area west
of I-77 in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through
this evening. Ceilings of 1500-3500 ft are expected, with
variable visibilities in the 2-5 SM range, though could be
briefly as low as 1/2SM at times. West wind of 12-15 knots with
gusts up to 20-30 knots this afternoon will subside to 10-12
knots with gusts up to 20 knots this evening.

A weak clipper system will bring a period of light snow focused
on the western half of the forecast area (along and west of
I-77) with visibilities in the 1-2SM range for about 3-6 hours
late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, lake
effect snow will redevelop and intensify along the lakeshore
late tonight with westerly flow. Moderate to heavy snow is
likely to impact KERI, with visibilities persistently at or
below 1 SM, and down to 1/4SM at times. As flow becomes west-
northwest, should see lake effect snow impacting the rest of the
forecast area with periodic visibilities at or below 2 SM.
Westerly winds will be on the rise Wednesday afternoon, with
gusts in the 25-30 knot range.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are expected across the region
due to lake effect snow through Thursday night and then with
low clouds Friday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions have improved on Lake Erie, so the Gale Warning has been
expired at 4 PM. West winds around 20-25 knots will continue through
Friday. A Small Craft Advisory has replaced the Gale Warning in the
central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. The worst conditions are
expected for about a 6 hour period Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night following the passage of a cold front. This is when winds will
become northwest and increase to 25-30 knots, especially in the
central and eastern basin where waves may climb to 7-9 feet. The
small craft advisory east of The Islands will then continue through
03Z Friday, though there is a chance it may need to be extended
further into Friday (confidence wasn`t high enough at this point.

High pressure builds in over the weekend and conditions improve
across Lake Erie with conditions at or below 10 kts & 2 ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ010-020>023-031>033.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ011.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for
     OHZ012>014-089.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ145>147.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ148-149-168-
     169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders