316
FXUS61 KCLE 042330
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
730 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe weather and flooding remain possible this afternoon and
evening with storms ahead of a cold front. A colder pattern shift
early next week will allow for periodic precipitation and the
potential for some accumulating snowfall in NE OH and NW PA on
Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe weather and flooding remain possible this afternoon and
evening with storms ahead of a cold front. The main window for
strong to severe storms remains from 3 to 10 PM. Flooding remains a
concern in North Central Ohio, where area rivers and creeks still
have high flows. Additional rain this afternoon and evening may
allow for flooding to linger into Sunday.

2) A pattern shift begins on Sunday and will carry through Tuesday
with cooler than normal temperatures and scattered rain/snow
chances, especially in lake effect/upslope areas of NE OH and NW PA.
Some light snow accumulations are possible in the snow belt area on
Monday night.

3) The pattern will shift again starting in the middle of the week
with temperatures returning to normal and at least one day of dry
weather on Wednesday. Rain chances may return late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Overall, the severe weather setup continues as advertised
across the area. The warm front wraps around the southern shore
of Lake Erie this afternoon. The Toledo metro started cool this
morning but the front has surged north to at least the state
line. Over in NW PA, the front is struggling to get to the city
of Erie with cold northeast flow off the lake, but the front may
still have some time to get there. Otherwise, temperatures are
doing well in the warm sector with widespread 70s and some
record high temperatures have already been achieved. Winds are
mixing down fairly well in the warm sector with 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts throughout central Ohio and spreading north.

There are two areas to look for severe weather this afternoon. The
first concerning area will be from North Central Ohio and east. A
cumulus field has filled in across the area this afternoon. More
robust cumulus is seen extending from the Lake Erie Islands south
through Columbus into southern Ohio. These clouds have the ability
to develop this afternoon and may turn into scattered showers and
storms that will move through the eastern half of the area. There is
a fair amount of low level instability that will build ahead of this
future area of convection that will not have anything working over
the atmosphere ahead it. However, the one limiting factor is a
slight cap from 500-650 mb that really weakens the mid-level lapse
rates and could prevent convection from forming ahead of the main
cold front. The other concerning area will be with the ongoing
convection ahead of the cold front that is crossing the IN/OH state
line. This line has already produced some just sub-severe wind gusts
in Indiana and will enter an environment that will become
increasingly favorable for severe wind gusts this afternoon with
better DCAPE and low level lapse rates. The limiting factor for this
line will be any convection that develops ahead of it that could
work over the atmosphere and diminish the wind threat.

For the flooding threat through tonight, storms will be progressive
across the area with at best two rounds of precipitation expected.
Overall, the QPF forecast remains limited with one inch of rain or
less expected with the rain ahead of the cold front. There is
ongoing flooding of note in North Central Ohio, mainly in the
Mohican River basins, and flooding here may be slower to recede with
this next round of rain. Flooding outside of this region would be
limited to localized urban issues where FFG values have lowered over
the past week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Tonight`s cold front will be the start of a significant pattern
change across the region. Sunday`s high temperatures are likely
to be early in the morning before the main cold front rolls
through the region. Cold advection will persist across the area
on Sunday as the main upper trough axis moves through the Great
Lakes region. This trough could allow for some modest lift to
allow for some light rain showers on Sunday, especially downwind
of Lake Erie where there could be some upslope in the higher
hills of NE OH and NW PA. For Monday into Monday night, a
secondary push of energy will move aloft through the region and
provide more lift for precipitation. With 850 mb temperatures in
the -6 to -8C range, there will be the opportunity for some
lake enhanced precipitation with some upslope enhancement as
well and have increased PoPs for this period. On Monday night, a
more firm changeover to snow is likely and snow accumulations
are possible in the hills of NE OH/NW PA. It would not be
unreasonable to see 1-3" of snow by Tuesday morning where
scattered snow showers persist.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
The cooler high pressure system from earlier in the week will
shift east and allow for warmer, return flow into the region.
Temperatures will return back to normal on Wednesday with upper
50s and dry conditions. There is still some uncertainty on the
timing of the late week system and cold front with some guidance
suggesting rain ahead of this feature entering on Thursday and
other guidance suggesting that rain hold off until Friday.
Temperatures may get a bit warmer into the 60s ahead of this
front but not near the 70s and 80s from this afternoon.
Therefore, any storm potential seems low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Two lines of showers ahead of/along a cold front will continue
to move east across the area into this evening. The overall
thunder risk remains relatively low, but these storms are
capable of producing non-VFR conditions in moderate to heavy
rain and lower ceilings in addition to gusty winds to 30 to 40
knots (isolated higher gusts possible). The showers should
largely taper off from west to east tonight with rain ending at
KYNG/KERI by 09Z or 10Z. Behind the rain, ceilings will
fluctuate between MVFR and low- end VFR (around 3500 ft AGL)
throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds ahead of the front will be out of the south/southwest
before becoming more westerly behind the front. Sustained winds
will generally be between 10 and 15 knots for the majority of
the TAF period, although sustained winds just ahead of the front
may reach or briefly exceed 20 knots this evening. Wind gusts
will be 20 to 25 knots through 00Z Monday, however periodic
gusts to 30 knots are possible tonight and again during the day
Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return Monday and Monday night in rain
and/or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds this afternoon will become westerly as
a strong cold front pushes east across the lake by tonight.
Winds will increase to 15-25 kts across the lake early Sunday,
and have issued a Small Craft Advisory for 3-5 ft. wave
expected. Winds will remain westerly Sunday night into Monday
but will decrease a bit as a trough lingers north of the lake. A
cold front will push south across the lake Monday night, with
northwest winds of 15-25 kts possibly necessitating another
Small Craft Advisory. Ridging builds across the lake into
midweek with calming conditions on the lake.

&&

.CLIMATE...
New high temperature records are occurring at area climate sites
this afternoon. Here are the current record high temperatures
for all six of our climate sites for April 4:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
04-04   78(1882)       79(1921)       77(1882)       77(1921)       76(1981)       77(1928)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...15
MARINE...03