031
FXUS61 KCLE 221746
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1246 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will merge with a
developing surface low off the New England Coast today. A
surface trough will linger across the eastern Great Lakes
through Saturday. High pressure will briefly build into the Ohio
Valley Sunday before another strong low pressure system impacts
the Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM Update...
Lake effect rain showers continue to fall across the eastern
portion of the area, resulting in much of the lingering snow to
melt. These lake effect showers will persist through much of the
period as models continue to suggest a connection with Lake
Huron becoming established. Slight adjustments were made with
temperatures across the higher elevations which have remained a
tad colder than previously forecast, but aside from that, the
forecast remains on track.

930 AM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures this morning to
reflect current observations, but overall there were no large
changes needed with this update. Winds will continue to
increase over the next couple hours.

645 am update...
There was some tweaks made to the hourly POPs from 12z this
morning through 00z this evening. But these adjustments were
minor with no changes to the overall forecast or weather impacts
that are expected today into this evening. We did update the
hourly wx precip type through the morning to much up with the
latest trends of the snow showers changing to rain showers from
the lakeshore and slowly transition southward

Previous discussion...
The round of wintry weather and localized heavy lake effect
snowfall we had during the past 24 hours has come to an end this
morning. As of 4 am, there are still some lingering light snow
showers over NEOH and NWPA but we are not expecting any
additional accumulations or impacts through the rest of the
morning. The trend going forward will be a slightly rise in our
temperatures through the rest of the morning as the low level
flow is shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly. This wind
shift or surface trough is currently near the lakeshore and will
continue to slowly move through northern Ohio through sunrise
this morning. Ironically the northwest low level flow will
advect in a slightly milder airmass and temperatures will slowly
rise into the lower to middle 40s later this morning. As the
temperatures start to slowly rise this morning, any leftover
snow showers will transition to rain showers from north to
south.

A low pressure system will deepen near the New England Coast
later today which will cause our winds to increase today into
tonight. A deep north-northwesterly flow will develop from the
low levels to the mid level of the atmosphere today into
tonight. This setup will bring a moisture rich flow from Lake
Huron and across Lake Erie down into NEOH and NWPA today through
Saturday. The temperature profile will be just a little too warm
to support any wintry precip with this next wave of lake effect
rain showers. We will see that increase in lake effect
rain showers through the rest of the morning and rain chances
will stay on the high side for NEOH and NWPA during the
afternoon through Saturday. There very well could be some bands
of moderate to heavy lake effect rain showers later today and
tonight. It will be cold, blustery and wet Friday and that will
continue tonight into Saturday. Northwest winds will increase 15
to 25 mph today with gusts likely up to 40 mph this afternoon
into the evening. Winds will remain breezy 15 to 20 mph tonight
and decrease to 10 to 15 mph on Saturday. Average QPF for the
snowbelt area of NEOH and NWPA will likely be up to 1.0" to
isolated 1.5" of rainfall through Saturday. Elsewhere like NWOH
into central Ohio, there will be some scattered rain showers
around today and tonight but not as concentrated or heavy as
what is expected near the snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA.
Temperatures will move much tonight with overnight low temps in
the upper 30s and lower 40s. The temperatures on Saturday will
only climb back into the middle to upper 40s for much of the
area with mostly overcast skies. Some locations in NWOH may
crack 50 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Last wave of the lake effect precipitation, likely rain at this
point, will come to an end as low level warm air advection begins
moving through the CWa and low level winds become more westerly and
then southwesterly by Sunday night. High pressure influences over
the central Appalachians will be short lived before tracking to the
coast, and the next upper level trough ejects out of the
intermountains west into the plains region. Surface low pressure
develops rapidly over the mid Mississippi Valley, heading
northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. The short term period
ends prior to a sharp cold front, but a significant and brief warm
up can be expected. Mid 40s to lower 50s Sunday become mid to upper
50s Monday. Prefrontal precipitation likely Monday with POPs peaking
around the 00Z Tue time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front cuts through Monday night, dropping temperatures back
down for the middle of the week. Brief period of lake effect
precipitation once again Tuesday into Tuesday night. Diurnally
driven precipitation types expected during this period as
temperatures drop below freezing Tuesday night. Flow aloft becomes
zonal Wednesday with a developing low pressure system moving west to
east from the southern plains into the Appalachians. Northern
portion of the precipitation shield pushes into the CWA from the
south with some below zero 850mb temperatures, and will need to
watch this system for changing precipitation types as well. Overall,
the trend in the extended is back into a chillier pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Less than desirable aviation conditions will continue through
this TAF period as low ceilings mixed with reduced visibilities
from rain will maintain MVFR to LIFR conditions. The current
conditions, which are primarily MVFR, will trend down to IFR
through the evening and overnight hours as lake effect rain
really becomes established for all terminals except KTOL and
KFDY. Ceilings at these terminals will likely remain in the MVFR
range. For terminals impacted by the lake effect rain,
visibilities will also be reduced to IFR conditions at times,
especially in the heaviest pockets of precipitation.

Winds through the entire period will remain from the northwest.
This afternoon, sustained winds of 12-15 knots are likely with
gusts up to 25-30 knots. The strongest winds are expected along
the immediate lakeshore, impacting KCLE and KERI. As the trough
shifts east overnight, winds will begin to weaken to 5-12 knots
and will persist through the remainder of the period. There is a
possibility of isolated wind gusts up to 20 knots on Saturday,
but with low confidence in where this will occur, opted to only
mention in the KCLE TAF.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Monday through Tuesday as
another system impacts the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Watch in effect for the central basin as northwest winds will
be on the increase to around 30kts by late Friday with wave heights
pushing 10ft. Winds not quite as intense in the western and eastern
basins with Small Craft Advisories. Winds then ease to 15-20kts
Saturday with wave heights gradually decreasing before becoming
southwesterly Sunday 10-15kts into Monday. Strong cold front tracks
across the lake late Monday into Monday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...26