687
FXUS61 KCLE 040534
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
134 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area for Friday into Saturday. A
cold front will approach the region from the west on Sunday into
Monday, followed by another area of high pressure for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main concern for the near term period will be the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening and in the afternoon
and evening hours for the Fourth of July, particularly across
Northwest Ohio. No severe weather is expected for the near term
period.

The shower and thunderstorm potential this evening will be driven by
a weak cold front/trough axis draped across Michigan, evident on the
backside of a more potent upper-level trough currently entering New
England. Did slightly increase PoPs to around 30% across far
Northwest Ohio for this evening as a developing lake breeze could
aid surface convergence with the approaching trough. For the Fourth
of July, maintained and slightly expanded low-end PoPs (around 20%)
across Northwest Ohio as a weak mid-level shortwave traverses the
northern periphery of building high pressure across the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a weak warm front may also aid in the
potential for a few showers or storms. Does not appear to be a total
washout, but will be something to watch over the next couple of
forecast iterations.

Generally seasonable to slightly above average temperatures are
expected for the Fourth of July with highs in the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The latest model guidance indicates that most areas will see a dry,
sunny, and hot Fourth of July weekend, though there remain a few
targets of opportunity that could produce some showers and storms.

The first of these targets will be Saturday afternoon and evening as
a warm front lifts northeast through the area. Weak surface
convergence aided by a lake breeze may result in a few isolated
showers and storms in the afternoon and evening across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The second and perhaps higher
potential for showers and storms will be late Sunday afternoon and
evening across Northwest Ohio as a cold front moves east through the
Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. At this point, the
highest precipitation chances appear just to the north and northwest
of the area, though there remain some timing differences amongst
model guidance.

Above-average temperatures are expected for the Fourth of July
weekend, with afternoon heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s.
A few isolated and brief pockets of heat indices reaching 100
degrees are possible on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main concern for the long term period will be on Monday as a cold
front pushes east through the area. Westerly mid-level flow is not
particularly strong (~25 knots), though could certainly see a few
stronger storms develop if trends persist, particularly across the
south and southeast portions of our area. Monday will feature the
highest coverage of showers and storms across the area for the long
term period.

Otherwise, a mainly-dry forecast is favored for Tuesday as the front
settles to the south and high pressure builds in from the north.
Unsettled weather may return for Wednesday and Thursday as a
troughing regime develops across the Eastern CONUS with a stationary
front just to the south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure northeast of the airspace this morning will allow
for VFR, dry conditions, and light winds through the overnight
for most locations. The lone exceptions will be KTOL and KMFD,
as some rain moved through these terminals during the evening
and some added moisture with clearing skies may allow for some
brief MVFR visibility around daybreak - have some TEMPOs for
both terminals. Otherwise, the low levels of the atmosphere
remain dry for the remaining terminals and do not expect any
restrictions.

For the Independence Day holiday, high pressure will slide
southeast and keep most of the terminals dry. Flow will flip to
some northerly component across the the area. There is still
some potential for storms to develop in Northwest Ohio this
afternoon with peak heating and as a warm front moves through
the airspace - have maintained a PROB30 TS for KTOL for MVFR TS
impacts. Winds will flip around to the south to southeast for
most sites tonight with high pressure to the east and a warm
front through the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with iso/sct showers and storms
during the afternoon/evening hours daily through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of 3 feet or less and wind speeds of 5 to 15 knots are
expected on Lake Erie through this Tuesday. A lake breeze will
dissipate early this evening and be followed by primarily NE`erly to
E`erly winds tonight as a ridge continues to build from the western
Great Lakes. On Friday, the core of the ridge is expected to settle
over the eastern Great Lakes. Winds will trend onshore during the
late morning through early evening hours due to development of
another lake breeze. Primarily E`erly to SE`erly winds later Friday
evening are expected to veer to S`erly to SW`erly by daybreak
Saturday as the ridge begins to exit E`ward and a warm front sweeps
N`ward across Lake Erie. Primarily S`erly to SW`erly winds then
persist through Sunday as Lake Erie remains along the western flank
of the departing ridge. SW`erly winds should veer gradually to
N`erly during Sunday night through Monday evening as a cold front
drifts S`ward across the lake. Behind the front, another ridge
should build from the northwestern Great Lakes through Tuesday.
Mainly N`erly winds Monday night into Tuesday morning should give
way to lake breeze development during late Tuesday morning through
early evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Jaszka