972
FXUS61 KCLE 281842
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
242 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Ohio counties as heat
indices will reach above 100 degrees starting Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions are expected across the region this week.

2) Low chances for showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow,
then again on Friday as the surface high pressure breaks down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will begin to build to the southeast as upper level
ridging moves into the eastern half of CONUS. Concurrently, a low
pressure system will move north across the Great Plains dragging a
warm front through the region during the day tomorrow. This will
bring much warmer and humid air in from the west-southwest and
temperatures will begin to rise well above average starting
tomorrow. The warm front will only clear the western counties in
Ohio by tomorrow evening, and heat indices will rise as a result and
exceed 100 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the I-75
corridor starting noon tomorrow. Hot and humid conditions will
spread to the remainder of the area as the warm front pushes north
Monday evening. An additional Heat Advisory has been issued for the
rest of Northern Ohio starting at noon on Tuesday to account for
this increased temperatures and heat indices. Both Heat Advisories
will run through Thursday evening, though hot and humid conditions
may last into the weekend with lower confidence. Heat indices will
be the highest Wednesday and Thursday as they approach 105, with
areas out west potentially eclipsing that mark. An upgrade to an
Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for at least the I-75 corridor
during that time period. To go along with the daytime heat,
overnight lows will be warm as well. Temperatures will only drop
down into the mid to upper 70s this week, providing little relief to
to the heat. As mentioned above, confidence in heat related
headlines decreases with the high pressure breaking down into the
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along a
stationary boundary that is located across the Ohio Valley. The best
chance for any showers would be in eastern Ohio as the drift
northward. Additionally, showers and possible in Northeastern Ohio
and Northwestern Pennsylvania as well with interaction with the lake
breeze. The boundary will move to the south this evening and
precipitation chances will decrease. Tomorrow, as the warm front
pushes north, there is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms
across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania in the late
evening to early morning on Tuesday.

Late in the week the upper level ridge will begin to break down and
the surface high will weaken. A few long range models depict a
shortwave moving through the region on Friday that could bring
showers and thunderstorms back to the area. Will need to monitor how
this unfolds throughout the week as there could be potential for
organized thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Conditions continue to improve across the area this afternoon, with
southern terminals holding on to MVFR conditions for a few more
hours. Isolated showers and an occasional thunderstorm are possible
south of a line from KCAK to KYNG, but confidence in timing and
location is very low. Expect VFR and light east to northeast winds
this evening into the early overnight hours. Low stratus and fog
will return to terminals in the southern potion of the CWA overnight
into early morning, with pockets of LIFR expected south of a line
from KMFD to KYNG. Wind will shift southeasterly but remain light.
VFR conditions return Monday afternoon and evening with winds
becoming southerly. No precipitation is expected.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build south across the eastern
Great Lakes today and support light northeast flow over Lake
Erie. This surface high will move east for Monday and allow a
warm front to enter the region, which will shift flow to the
southeast. For Tuesday through Thursday, the lake will be in the
warm sector behind the front with high pressure extending over
the lake from the south. Winds will be southwest for the middle
of the week averaging 10 kts. No marine headlines are expected
at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday.
Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
06-29   100(1952)      96(1934)       94(2012)       98(1952)       99(1933)       90(2021)
06-30   97(1953)       94(1970)       95(1941)       96(1913)       94(1942)       92(1930)
07-01   98(1931)       98(1931)       95(2002)       97(1931)       96(1931)       94(2018)
07-02   98(2011)       97(1931)       97(1954)       98(1931)       98(1931)       94(1963)
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-
     006-017.
     Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...27
MARINE...Sefcovic