696
FXUS61 KCLE 241030
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
630 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge will begin to break down today as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The cold front will drift across
the area tonight through at least Wednesday before lifting
north as a warm front Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper ridge that has been producing dry weather and
hot/humid conditions for the last few days will begin to break
down today, allowing a cold front to approach from the
northwest. The approach of the front will usher the return of
shower/thunderstorm chances into the area mid to late afternoon
into this evening. The highest PoPs will be closer to the front
across NW OH, but most CAMs suggest that there`s at least a
slight chance of isolated to scattered storms across the entire
local area this evening. PoPs should taper off close to
midnight, however the moist airmass and forcing from the front
drifting into the area warrants low-end probabilities of
showers/storms over NW OH through the overnight.
Shower/thunderstorm chances increase further as the front sinks
south across the area on Wednesday with PoPs maximizing during
peak diurnal heating.

While the potential for organized convection is low given low
shear values, the moist airmass with PWATS up to 2 inches in
addition to ML/MUCAPE values of at least 2000 J/kg during peak
heating will result in a risk of damaging wind gusts in wet
downbursts both today and Wednesday. SPC has highlighted this
potential in Marginal Risks of severe weather for the next two
days. The high PWATs and potential for weak flow parallel to the
frontal boundary could allow for the development of training
showers and storms with very heavy rainfall rates. Flooding
cannot be ruled out, especially in locations that experience
repeated rounds of heavy rain. With that being said, overall
confidence in the placement/timing/coverage of storms is
somewhat low over the next couple of days due to the lack of
shear/convection organization.

Today`s highs will be in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat
indices likely ranging between 98 and 103 degrees. The Heat
Advisory remains in place until 8 PM this evening, although heat
indices and temperatures could be a few degrees lower if showers
and storms develop earlier than currently anticipated. Tonight`s
lows will be in the low 70s. Afternoon highs will trend a bit
cooler on Wednesday with maximum temps in the mid to upper 80s
expected across most of the area and lower 90s possible south of
U.S. Route 30. A few spots in southern zones may see heat
indices close to 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon, but the
arrival of showers and higher cloud cover will likely limit heat
indices. Either way, it will still be quite humid beyond the
expiration of the Heat Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the upper ridge flattens out and retreats southward, the flow
aloft for the CWA becomes more zonal, favoring a return of the storm
track. 0-6km shear vectors on the increase in magnitude with the
faster flows within the upper/mid level height gradients. At the
surface, stationary front will be draped across northern
Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania through Thursday night providing a
focus for convective initiation before retreating back to the
northeast as a warm front on Friday. Surface based instability also
on the increase for Thursday and Friday. Should be sufficient layer
RH in the low/mid levels, but far from saturated leading to the
increased potential for dry air entrainment and evaporative cooling.
Also could have an inverted V sounding for the boundary layer
enhancing the wind threat as well. Cloud cover could have an
inhibiting effect to some degree, but likely POPs for most of the
area for Thursday and Friday are justified. Temperatures in the 80s
for the most part each day, with Friday being the warmer of the two
days with the CWA back in the warm sector thanks to the
aforementioned warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front swings through Friday night, stalling, and pushing back
northward again as a warm front. The pattern remains unsettled in
still largely zonal flow aloft, and convective activity should be
expected to continue for the CWA in the long term forecast period.
Temperatures remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s for the most part
with dewpoints in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Most locations will experience VFR conditions through the TAF
period as an upper ridge gradually pushes south of the area and
a cold front approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms may move southeast into the local area late
this afternoon into this evening with the highest likelihood of
precip at KTOL/KFDY, which have VCTS between roughly 20Z and 2Z.
A few thunderstorms may clip KCLE and KMFD this evening, as
outlined with PROB30 groups during this time. There`s still
quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement and timing of
thunderstorms, so the timeframe of showers/storms will likely be
narrowed in subsequent updates as high res guidance becomes a
bit more aligned. Showers and thunderstorms can`t completely be
ruled out remaining local TAF sites, however the overall
probability is still too low to warrant the addition of
showers/storms. Additional showers may begin to move into the
vicinity of KTOL/KFDY towards the very end of the TAF period.
Any precip could produce locally heavy rainfall rates/non- VFR
visibilities and possibly even gusty and erratic winds.

Winds will be light and variable or out of the southwest early
this morning before becoming westerly and increasing to 5 to 10
knots by late this morning/early this afternoon. A few gusts to
20 knots are possible primarily at KERI during the afternoon.
Winds become light and variable from about 00Z Wednesday onward.

Outlook...Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms
could allow for non-VFR at local terminals through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds begin the forecast out of the southwest less than 10kts and
wave heights 1ft or less for Tuesday. With a stationary front in the
vicinity of Lake Erie for much of the forecast period, expect
variable winds after Tuesday less than 10kts producing wave heights
less than 2ft through the weekend as the boundary tracks back and
forth/north and south across the lake.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures may approach or exceed record values today.
Here are daily record high temperature values at our six climate
sites:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie

06-24   95(2005)       93(1933)       96(1952)       95(1923)       93(1952)       92(1952)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...