623
FXUS61 KCLE 081748
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1248 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing, strong low pressure system will bring much colder air
into the region later this weekend with the potential for
accumulating snow from Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Spotty showers expected near the lakeshore this morning as another
weak cold front comes through the area. Well-advertised, developing
low pressure will track eastward today and tonight across the
Mississippi Valley, and then along the southern CWA border Sunday.
This low pressure system passing just to the south and then east of
the region will be the significant airmass changing system with the
stout cold air advection in its wake from an upper level low
dropping into the western Great Lakes. The first round of
significant precipitation comes after 03Z Sunday with the mid/upper
level trough moving into the western CWA and the associated PVA.
This will be in the form of rain primarily as the temperature drop
will be in the process of occurring, until around 10-12Z when wet
snow begins to mix in with the rain for the Toledo area prior to
sunrise. This could be short lived and will not be the permanent
change over to frozen precipitation until late Sunday with daylight
hours and a brief increase in temperatures in northwest Ohio back
into the upper 30s. A multitude of trough axes in the 700mb flow
will keep the chances for off and on precipitation going through the
day. Rain changes to snow west to east after 18Z, and will still be
in transition by 00Z Monday and the break with the short term
forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With the departure of the surface low to the east, focus of the
precipitation turns to the surface/low level flows off the lakes and
the assistance of the main upper level low working its way through
the southern Great Lakes. There is a pronounced amount of CAPE that
will become established because of the relatively warm lake water
temperatures in the mid 50s and 850mb temperatures around -11C,
which is delivering some hype for this system. With some aid from
the forcing aloft, snow, potentially moderate at times, is possible
across much of northern Ohio downwind of Lake Erie, from a northerly
fetch to start Sunday night into early Monday, veering to
northwesterly later Monday, and westerly Monday night. What will
keep the forecast snowfall amounts in check will be a combination of
not only those aforementioned changing low level flow directions,
but also patchy dry air in the low levels, making this an imperfect
setup. Most locations are going to see snow at some point, but with
the transient nature of the bulk of the parameters that will be
responsible for the precipitation, will keep the snowfall amounts on
the manageable side. During the daytime hours Monday, the snow line
will be pushed inland a bit due to warmer lake water temperatures,
and the highest amounts will ultimately end up in the higher
elevations of the NW PA counties. High pressure will build in from
the south heading into Tuesday, effectively shutting off the lake
effect by 00Z Wednesday. Coldest air of the season no doubt, and
Monday and Tuesday temperatures will largely be in the 30s with 20s
Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad scale troughing aloft will linger over the northeast CONUS,
and while a modest warm up is expected in a rebound from the cold
start to the week, temperatures will be work back into the upper
40s. Saturated low level flow off the lake could keep off and on
precipitation possible over the eastern zones of the CWA for the
middle to the end of the week. Milder conditions expected beyond
Friday into the weekend as upper ridging builds over the
midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Predominately MVFR conditions are being observed as a boundary
lingers just south of the area. These diminished conditions are
expected to continue with patchy reductions in visibilities as
low as 3SM possible given the ample low level moisture present.
Currently only 1 terminal (KCAK) maintains 3SM with ceilings
below 1kft. These conditions should gradually improve to MVFR
this afternoon. Shower potential will remain limited through 00Z
and any showers that develop should be isolated to KCLE and
KERI where light lake effect may occur.

Tonight, a low pressure system is expected to move east out of
the Midwest, tracking across the Ohio River Valley through
Sunday. This will result in an increased in shower potential on
the northern side of the low around 05Z tonight. As these
showers move in, some locally heavy shower may reduce
visibilities to IFR briefly before becoming widespread IFR by
the end of the period. Rain will be the primary precipitation
type, although with temperatures falling a few flakes may be
able to mix in by Sunday morning. Only terminal with confidence
in this occurring during this period is KTOL so opted to add a
RASN mix.

Winds through tonight will remain light from the northeast. As
the low pressure tracks closer to the area Sunday morning, an
increased gradient will allow for northeast winds to increase to
10-14 knots with localized gusts up to 25 knots. The best chance
for the stronger winds gusts will be across western terminals
and those along the lakeshore.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected Sunday through early this week with
rain and snow showers possible. Possible prolonged non-VFR
conditions in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with
lake effect showers through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed expire this morning as
winds and waves have continued to subside across the near
shore. Winds today will be generally out of the north at 5-10
knots then shifting to be more east-to-northeasterly by late
Saturday night. A low pressure system will approach from the
west Sunday morning and winds will increase to 25-30 knots and
waves building to 6 to 9 feet. The low will track to the south
of the region through the day on Sunday and winds will shift
around to be out of the north. Depending on the track and
intensity of the low, winds may be stronger.

As the low pushes off to the northeast winds will diminish to
15-25 knots Sunday night into Monday. A trough will move into
the region midweek and with a ridge building to the south, winds
will increase to near gale across the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23