781
FXUS61 KCLE 092039
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
339 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through the area early Wednesday ahead of strong
low pressure tracking through the central Great Lakes. A strong cold
front crosses late Wednesday behind this low pressure. Weak low
pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley Friday, with a cold front
crossing the area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-Accumulating wet snow across the higher terrain of Northeast OH and
 Northwest PA late tonight into early Wednesday, with road impacts to
 the Wednesday morning commute in the higher elevations. The rest of
 the area will see a cold rain or rain/snow mix.
-Southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 MPH late tonight and Wednesday.
-Strong cold front late Wednesday afternoon and evening brings snow
 showers to much of the area and falling temperatures. Snow will be
 enhanced along the front by Lake Erie, with lake effect snow showers
 developing behind the front across Northeast OH and Northwest PA.

Lingering flurries and snow showers across far Northeast OH and
Northwest PA this afternoon will continue to exit. A few flurries or
a bit of freezing drizzle may linger into the evening in the higher
terrain of Northwest PA, but should not be impactful. This will leave
a brief period of quiet weather across the area.

A strong clipper (sub 990mb) will swing through the southern Great
Lakes on Wednesday. This will lift a warm front across the local area
early Wednesday. An initial cold front will cross late Wednesday
morning and early afternoon, with a trailing cold front late
Wednesday afternoon/evening that will usher much colder air back in.
The general progression remains an initial thump of cold rain and wet
snow late tonight into early Wednesday, a dry slot with more showery
and intermittent precipitation (mainly rain) for several hours during
the day Wednesday, followed by snow showers (enhanced by the lake)
along the strong cold front late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lake
effect then takes over Wednesday night as the clipper exits.

Precipitation will quickly spread in from the west-northwest very late
this evening through the overnight. Surface temperatures will reach
their lows early tonight, in the upper 20s/lower 30s east of the I-71
corridor (low to mid 30s along the immediate lakeshore) and mid 30s to
the west. Temperatures will then hold steady or just slowly rise
tonight (a brief period of wet-bulb/dynamic cooling as steadier precip
spreads in may briefly interrupt the warming) into early Wednesday.
Temperatures aloft have trended slightly cooler across Northwest PA
per model forecast soundings, though a warm nose may still initially
exist farther west across Ohio. Overall, expect precipitation to
arrive as mainly or all snow in PA and a rain/snow mix in Ohio. There
could be brief pockets of freezing rain in Northeast OH where surface
temperatures will be coldest, but this should be spotty and not last
long. Precipitation should change to mainly snow as far west as
roughly the I-71 corridor for a time early Wednesday morning when
rates are heaviest, with mainly rain or just some brief mix with snow
to the west of that. Still am concerned that a period of strong lift,
with this lift intersecting the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), will
lead to a brief (3-6 hour) window of moderate to heavy snow between
3-11 AM from west to east across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, especially
in the higher elevations. As a dry slot spreads in Wednesday morning
and low-level warm advection continues we should see snow become
lighter and more intermittent and change to mainly rain.

The snowfall forecast through Wednesday morning has not changed much,
aside from a modest increase in the higher terrain of the snowbelt.
3-5" is expected across the higher terrain of Northwest PA with 1-3"
across Northeast OH east of I-77, with lighter amounts near the lake.
Some light (<1" of slushy snow) accumulations are in the forecast as
far west as the higher terrain near Mansfield. There is just not
enough snow in the forecast to expand the Winter Weather Advisory into
Ohio, though the peak snow rates will be coinciding with the Wednesday
morning commute and the ground is cold, meaning the near or slightly
above freezing surface temperatures may not matter much. Essentially,
those in the higher terrain of Northeast OH and Northwest PA should
plan on a snowy and slick commute Wednesday morning, with the greatest
amounts and impacts in the advisory. Surrounding areas (such as
Cleveland/Akron/Youngstown) may at least see a brief period of slushy
travel during the commute given the timing of the burst of west snow,
even if snow amounts in these cities are around or under an inch.

We get into a dry slot Wednesday morning and early afternoon behind
the initial slug of precip, though it won`t be an especially clean dry
slot. Scattered showers (mainly rain) will continue off and on,
particularly along a cold front that will cross late morning into the
afternoon from west to east. A broken band of weak convective showers
(that may bring enhanced wind gusts and brief small hail or graupel)
is still likely along that front. Highs will reach the upper 30s and
low 40s around midday Wednesday before starting to slowly fall through
the afternoon behind the initial cold front. Wind gusts will still
ramp up out of the south-southwest beneath a strong low-level jet late
tonight into early Wednesday and remain gusty through the day while
gradually shifting more westerly. Gusts of 35 to 45 MPH are generally
expected to handle it, with the strongest flow aloft occurring early
Wednesday in a warm advection regime with ongoing precipitation (none
of which is favorable for efficiently mixing down stronger winds).
So, while forecast gusts do approach Wind Advisory criteria and one or
two such gusts can`t be ruled out, continued to hold off on issuing a
Wind Advisory with this update. Wind gusts will remain elevated into
early Wednesday evening before gradually diminishing.

A stronger cold front, associated with a sharp low-mid level trough
axis behind the departing clipper, will cross late Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Scattered to numerous snow showers are still likely
area-wide with this feature, with a more coherent burst of lake
enhanced snow southeast of Lake Erie across Northeast OH and Northwest
PA. Most of the area will see minimal (under 1") accumulation with
this front, with a quick inch or two in the snowbelt with it. Not much
snow, but temperatures will quickly drop below freezing Wednesday
evening which along with even a light amount of snow could contribute
to slick or icy conditions across a good chunk of the area. Outside of
developing lake effect off of Lake Erie into the snowbelt and a few
flurries pushing off of Lake Michigan into our western counties
overnight, dry conditions are expected to take hold Wednesday night.
Lows will generally reach the low to mid 20s, with a few 10s west.

Lake effect snow will start developing quickly later Wednesday evening
and night as some lingering low-level synoptic moisture combines with
quickly cooling temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings depict marginal
instability and fairly dry low-levels back towards Cleveland, which
along with a more northwest flow (short fetch) will limit the
intensity of activity for most of the snowbelt...particularly in Ohio.
However, soundings are a bit more favorable towards Erie which could
allow for a more intense band of snow with connection to Lake Huron to
develop overnight across Northwest PA. While it won`t be the most snow
ever for these areas, a few inches may occur overnight if an
organized band connected to Lake Huron can develop. With lake
accumulating lake effect then continuing in the forecast through
Thursday night, extended the end time of the advisories until 4 AM
Friday to cover the lake effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-Lake effect snow continues across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA
 Thursday into Thursday night.
-A clipper tracking through the Ohio Valley may spread light snow into
 southwestern portions of the area late Thursday night into Friday.

The main story for Thursday and much of Thursday night will be cold
but mainly dry conditions across the area outside of continuing lake
effect snow across the primary snowbelt. It will still be mostly
cloudy across the area, with some (non-accumulating) flurries also a
possibility into Thursday across Northwest OH off of Lake Michigan.
Highs are expected to range from the mid 20s to near 30 on Thursday,
with lows Thursday night ranging from the mid 10s to mid 20s.

Into the primary snowbelt the focus will remain continuing lake effect
snow through a good portion of Thursday night, with enough ridging
expected to build in by early Friday to put a significant lid on any
remaining activity. A moderate to heavy band of snow with connection
to Lake Huron may still be impacting eastern Erie County PA early
Thursday, but then likely shifts into western NY. Am expecting fairly
disorganized and light activity outside of this Lake Huron connection
initially, though as winds gradually back more westerly (increasing
fetch) and bring moisture from Lake Michigan into play there should be
some uptick in organization and intensity Thursday afternoon and
evening, particularly across the higher terrain of inland Erie County
and northern Crawford County. Lowering inversion heights and a drier
airmass are shown by all guidance overnight Thursday night into early
Friday as high pressure builds in, meaning the main window for lake
effect in this forecast period will likely be Thursday afternoon
through the first half of Thursday night. Overall this is not the most
impressive lake effect setup, though favorable snow ratios may help
contribute to another few inches of fluffy snow across parts of inland
Northwest PA where organized banding is able to develop Thursday into
Thursday night. There will be some activity into Ohio as far west as
the Cleveland area as well though it will be on the lighter side, with
perhaps locally up to a couple inches of additional snow Thursday and
Thursday night where bands are able to develop east of Cleveland.

It will be mostly cloudy on Friday as a clipper drives through the
Ohio Valley. This clipper will be weakening and just graze our area,
but may bring some light snow to our southwestern counties in the
vicinity of Friday morning. Otherwise, continued backing flow should
gradually push any lingering lake effect in extreme Northeast OH and
Northwest PA out into Lake Erie through the day Friday. Highs on
Friday are expected to reach the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Forecast uncertainty increases Friday night. It will probably be a
mainly dry night between systems. However, disagreement on whether the
next cold front (with a chance of snow showers and lake effect behind
it) will cross very late Friday night or on Saturday is enough that
blended model guidance (which is largely the basis of our forecast)
brought increased POPs for snow late Friday night, especially across
the primary snowbelt. Lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-High confidence in very cold weather this weekend, with highs
 struggling to exceed 20 and lows in the single digits and 10s. Wind
 chills may dip below 0 degrees at times.
-A strong cold front and passing clipper system may bring light snow
 accumulations area-wide Saturday or Saturday evening, with lake
 effect into the snowbelt Saturday night and Sunday.

A cold front is expected to cross late Friday night or Saturday
morning, bringing with it a chance for snow showers area-wide with
greater potential for snow across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA
due to contribution from Lake Erie. Models are in agreement that
another shortwave/clipper, with a tap to truly Arctic air behind it,
will cross late Saturday into Saturday night. However, there is some
disagreement regarding where a swath of fluffy accumulating snow will
track with that feature. Either way, there`s increasing confidence in
west-northwest flow lake effect snow organizing/intensifying Saturday
night and Sunday as the deepest cold air moves through the region.
Lake effect looks to continue into at least Sunday night, though
should diminish or potentially even shut off on Monday as high
pressure slides through the region. Quieter weather is then expected
for early next week on the backside of the high pressure.

The highest-confidence and most widespread impact will be cold
temperatures Saturday through early Monday. Daytime highs may still
reach the mid-upper 20s on Saturday but will struggle to exceed 20 on
Sunday. Overnight lows in the single digits and 10s are expected
Saturday and Sunday nights with wind chills likely dipping below 0
across at least portions of the area. Temperatures should start to
gradually moderate on Monday and Tuesday, though are currently not
forecast to get above freezing through the end of the 7-day forecast.

What remains less confident is snow potential. Guidance is trying to
key in on a swath of fluffy accumulating snow impacting a good portion
of our forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening, though enough
variability exists among ensemble members still to keep confidence in
this affecting the area more in the "medium" range. We are not talking
a big snow, but a typical 1-3/2-4" fluffy clipper snow appears in
play wherever the swath of snow ends up tracking. Some lake effect may
be ongoing on Saturday, though is most favored late Saturday through
Sunday night. Variation remains on guidance regarding the exact wind
direction, depth of cold air, and amount of moisture to work with.
However, we seem to be trending towards a decent period of west-
northwest flow Saturday night through Sunday night with most guidance
showing 850mb temperatures dipping to -16 to -20C on Sunday. This
suggests potential for an impactful accumulation of fluffy lake
effect favoring inland portions of the snowbelt. However, still need
to allow details to become clearer before speculating more than that.
Those in the snowbelt region of Northeast OH and Northwest PA should
continue to monitor the forecast for the second half of this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
As of about 1740Z, light to moderate snow was moving east across
far northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. This will
produce a period of non-VFR conditions at KERI for the first
couple of hours of the TAF period before snow exits to the east.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will likely persist at KTOL through
about 21Z before the lower ceilings lift north. Conditions will
deteriorate later tonight as low pressure moves east into the
Lower Great Lakes. This low will most likely move northeast just
to the north of Lake Erie into Wednesday, lifting a warm front
across the region tonight and dragging a cold front east into
the local area towards the end of the TAF period. Snow or a
rain/snow mix (with a small chance of a very brief period of
freezing rain in portions of NE OH/NW PA) will lift northeast
into the western half of the CWA near or shortly after 03Z with
precip reaching KERI by 06Z. Precip will likely transition to
rain from west to east for a few hours Wednesday morning into
the afternoon, however ptype may transition back to snow at
western terminals behind the cold front right around 18Z
Wednesday. Ptype may change in subsequent updates as confidence
in temperatures at the onset increases.

Ceilings and visibilities will deteriorate with the arrival of
precip with MVFR vsbys/cigs developing with the onset of precip
and IFR (and possibly LIFR conditions) anticipated within a
few hours of precip onset. There may be a period of lighter
precip or lower coverage in rain/snow mid to late morning into
the afternoon, but expect fog/mist and low stratus to keep
cigs/vsbys relatively low through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be out of the south/southwest at 10 to 16 knots with
gusts to 20 to 30 knots this afternoon into this evening before
southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 to
35+ knots late tonight through the end of the TAF period. Winds
will become more westerly at KTOL/KFDY behind the cold front
Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected Wednesday with rain and/or a wintry
mix of rain and snow transitioning back over to snow Wednesday
evening. Periods of snow will be possible Thursday through
Sunday, especially in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
A series of systems will cross Lake Erie over the next several days,
resulting in a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions.

Southwest winds to 20 to 30 knots are expected this afternoon
through tonight with winds increasing further by early Wednesday
morning as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Marginal
gales are likely primarily east of the Islands Wednesday morning
through early Wednesday evening with the highest winds anticipated
in the open waters of the central basin. Gale Warnings remain in
effect for the open and nearshore waters from Reno Beach east from
09Z/4 AM to 00Z/7 PM Wednesday with a Small Craft Advisory in effect
from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach through Wednesday night.

Confidence in the potential for low water in the western basin has
decreased. Favorable conditions for low water scenarios typically
involve more west-southwest to west winds (starting at 240 to 250
degrees) and the window for favorable winds will only be for a brief
period Wednesday morning. The critical mark for safe navigation at
Toledo is currently 8 inches below low water datum and latest LEOFS
guidance places the minimum water level near that level Wednesday
morning, which suggests a relatively low confidence forecast. Will
need to keep an eye on guidance and observations though; a Low Water
Advisory may need to be issued at some point late tonight or early
Wednesday morning, especially if the wind takes on a more westerly
component longer than currently anticipated.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening and Small Craft
Advisories will be needed after the Gale Warning ends and as winds
remain in the 20 to 30 knot range through much of Thursday. Winds
will gradually diminish Thursday night into Friday morning and
headlines will likely end as south/southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots
develop during the day Friday. Headlines will likely return to the
lake as an Arctic front moves across the lake late Friday into
Saturday with stronger winds persisting into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday
     for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ143>149.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ143>149-
     163>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15