468
FXUS61 KCLE 261808
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
108 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move east today as a deepening low pressure
system moves across the northern Great Lakes towards Quebec. Behind
the cold front, a surface trough will linger through Friday before a
brief area of high pressure builds east on Saturday. On Sunday,
another low pressure moves into the region and move a cold front
east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very potent low pressure system will impact the entire area in
some aspect over the next couple days with initial impacts being
felt today as a strong cold front moves east across the area. This
system will continue to strengthen over the region, eventually
becoming a cut-off low pressure through the vertical by Thursday
morning. As a result, multiple hazards will impact the area, so for
simplicity, have opted to breakdown each hazard below.

Wind:

The next 24 hours are expected to be very windy across the entire
area as the center of the aforementioned low tracks through the
region. Given the strength of the low, the gradient is expected to
become very tight which can be seen in model forecasts of a LLJ of
45-55 knots moving over the area. WSW winds sustained at 20 to 30
mph will begin this morning and continue through much of tonight.
Gusts up to 50 mph are possible. These strong winds will have the
potential to damaged trees and down power lines, resulting in some
power outages. These winds may also cause a risk to high profile
vehicles and drivers should use caution.

By late tonight, most areas will have slightly calmer winds
sustained from the west at 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. The
exception will be for areas along the lakeshore extending from
Lorain County east through Erie County PA. Across these counties
downwind of the lake, west winds will remain elevated through
Thursday night with gusts up to 50 mph continuing. On top of the
impacts that typically come from strong winds, gusty winds may lead
to blowing snow on Thursday which could further impact holiday
travel. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire area.

Synoptic & Lake Effect Snow:

As the strong cold front pushes east today, showers are expected to
develop along and ahead of the boundary given strong synoptic
support and frontogenetic forcing. These showers should primarily
remain as rain until the cold air overrides the boundary and
gradually transitions everything to snow showers this afternoon.

This evening, strong southwesterly flow on the front edge of the
upper level trough will begin to result in a single band of heavy
lake effect snow to push northeast across Lake Erie. A small portion
of Erie County PA may initially be clipped by this band, but the
bulk of snowfall and subsequent impacts will come late Wednesday
into Thursday morning as the trough axis shifts east of the area. As
this happens, flow will back from a SW to WNW and result in the
aforementioned heavy lake effect band moving inland. Snowfall totals
across the snowbelt are expected to exceed 8 inches with the highest
totals expected across Erie County PA. In Erie County, 8 to 12
inches is expected across much of the area with some locations
across inland Erie County possibly seeing up to 18 inches of snow.

In Crawford County PA and across areas of the Ohio snowbelt,
snowfall totals will range from 4 to 16 inches with the highest
totals expected across higher elevations. This includes northern
Geauga County/southern Lake County, northeast Ashtabula County, and
northern Crawford County. Totals across these counties are expected
to have a wide range given the nature of lake effect, so there
remains some uncertainty in the forecast with exact placement of the
highest/lowest totals.

Given these snowfall totals, the biggest change with this update is
that the Lake Effect Snow Warning has been extended to include the
Ohio snowbelt and Crawford County PA. The highest snowfall rates are
expected to be on Thursday which may approach 1-2 inches per hour at
times. This will result in impacts to the Thanksgiving travel.
Motorists should avoid traveling unless absolute necessary. If you
have to venture out, be sure to have a winter preparedness kit in
the car.

Temperatures:

Temperatures today are expected to quickly plummet behind the
aforementioned cold front. Highs for the day will be in the mid 40s
to low 50s and will be reached this morning. As the day progresses,
temperatures will quickly fall into the 30s before dropping into the
20s tonight. Given the expected windy conditions, wind chill values
today will be in the 20s with overnight wind chills dropping into
the teens. These quickly changing temperatures could result in some
slick spots on roadways that are untreated. Highs on Thursday will
be much cooler as they only climb into the low to mid 30s, but once
again wind chill values will be in the low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
To keep the discussions simple, much of the previous discussion
will be applicable to Thursday night and early Friday as the
surface trough still lingers across the region. This will result
in continued lake effect snow across the snowbelt and windy
conditions, especially across counties near the lakeshore. On
Friday, the trough gradually begins to shift east, allowing for
lake effect snow showers to gradually taper from west to east as
drier air begins to build in. Much of the area should be snow
free Friday night with the exception of a few lingering flurries
that may impact NWPA.

On Saturday, a high pressure system will quickly push east across
the area ahead of another potent low pressure system. This low will
move northeast through the western Great Lakes, moving a warm front
north late Saturday into Saturday night. Given the timing of this
boundary, much of the precipitation should be snow, however there is
a potential for a rain/snow mix and a small potential brief freezing
rain in scattered areas. Confidence in this occurring is very low,
so opted to maintain snow or a rain/snow mix at this time. Areas
that get snow should see less than 0.5".

Highs on Friday and Saturday will linger in the 30s with overnight
lows falling into the upper teens to mid 20s. The coldest night
should be Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active weather pattern is expected to continue through the long
term period. Initially, a cold front associated with a low moving
northeast through the western Great Lakes will push east resulting
in widespread showers. The area should remain on the warm side of
the low which will keep precipitation on Sunday as all rain before
transitioning to a rain/snow mix late Sunday and eventually to all
snow on Monday. The upper level trough associated with this low will
continue to impact the area through Tuesday, proving more support
for additional snow showers to develop. The long term forecast
suggests that winter is here to stay with highs on Sunday the
warmest as temperatures climb into the 40s. After Sunday, highs look
to stick in the upper 20s to low 30s with overnight lows falling
into the teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Mixed bag of MVFR and VFR ceilings with fluctuating conditions
are expected this afternoon before lake effect clouds and
precipitation begin to develop by this evening. A push of light
snow may push east across the local area late afternoon into
early evening, but generally don`t expect sub-MVFR conditions
with this.

A band of lake effect snow will develop over Lake Erie tonight
before pushing south into NW PA and NE OH by late tonight/early
Thursday morning. The lake effect snow will likely begin to
move over KERI shortly after 00Z with the main band of snow most
likely moving over the terminal near 06Z. Conditions will
gradually worsen through tonight with IFR (possibly LIFR)
conditions developing with the main band of snow late tonight
into Thursday morning. Lake effect snow will push inland by
mid-morning, however sub-VFR will likely persist in continued
snow through the end of the TAF period. Snow should largely stay
to the north of KCLE through the majority of the TAF period,
but snow will likely begin to move within the vicinity of the
terminal at around 12Z and possibly advance south towards the
airfield after 18Z. Confidence in Lake Michigan snow showers
over NW OH is lower so have VCSH at KTOL this evening through
tonight. Amendments may be needed as confidence in the placement
of lake effect bands increases. Any snow showers will likely
produce periods of non-VFR conditions.

Outside of precipitation, ceilings will most likely fluctuate
between low-end VFR and MVFR through the TAF period.

Strong winds are anticipated through Thursday afternoon with
west/southwest winds to 15 to 25 knots and gusts to 35 to 45
knots anticipated through tonight. Winds will diminish to 15 to
20 knots with gusts to 25 to 35 knots at inland terminals by
early Thursday morning, however elevated winds will persist from
KCLE to KERI through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Strong winds with gusts 30-40 kts continue through
Thursday night. Non-VFR ceilings will continue through Friday.
Lake effect snow will allow for non-VFR visibility for most
terminals through Friday AM with the most significant impacts
expected at KERI, KCLE, and KYNG. Another system will enter the
Great Lakes region Saturday night into Sunday, bringing
potential for more non-VFR and strong winds.

&&

.MARINE...
An extremely hazardous marine weather period is expected through
Friday for Lake Erie with strong gale force winds overtaking the
lake. The main cold front that will usher these winds is along
the OH/IN state line this morning and will cross the lake over
the next several hours. The change will be rapid as evidenced by
the gale force conditions already being observed on some Lake
Michigan marine weather stations. For this forecast package,
have winds slightly higher with 45 kt sustained winds possible
this afternoon into tonight as most of the low level jet will
make it to the lake surface with the cold air advection. The low
water advisory for the western basin remains on track with water
levels expected to be at least 2 to 3 feet below low water
datum, or well below the critical mark for safe navigation,
which is set at five inches below low water datum.

The main low pressure system that is supporting the strong winds
over the lake will be well into eastern Quebec on Friday and
high pressure building from the west should help erode the lake
aggregate trough. Gale force winds should subside on Friday
morning, but there will need to be a step down to a Small Craft
Advisory that should last until Saturday morning. There will be
a very brief reprieve in marine headlines with high pressure
south of the lake on Saturday. However, another strong low
pressure system will be targeting the Great Lakes region on
Saturday night into Sunday. Lake Erie will be on the warm side
of this system and strong offshore flow will develop. There will
likely be a need for additional marine headlines with this
system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for OHZ003-006>009-013-
     014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for OHZ010>012-089.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for OHZ011>014-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for OHZ023.
PA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for PAZ002-003.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Sefcovic