023
FXUS61 KCLE 290536
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
136 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures continue to trend slightly higher for early to mid-next
week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, becoming
above-average by early to mid-next week. Heat headlines are
possible.

2) An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the Great Lakes
early to mid-next week, resulting in increased shower and
thunderstorm chances. Strong storms and heavy rainfall are
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A large upper-level ridge will build east across much of the
Central and Eastern CONUS by the end of the weekend into mid-
next week. At the surface, a warm front will lift northeast
through the area late Sunday into Monday, ushering in above-
average temperatures across the region. Highs in the mid to
upper 80s on Sunday will increase further into the upper 80s to
lower 90s by Monday, and perhaps reaching the mid-90s in some
spots by Tuesday or Wednesday with the ridge axis overhead,
yielding heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100 at times. All
this said, it is still not a slam-dunk heat event given
increasing chances for showers, storms, and residual cloud cover
during this same time period. Will continue to watch trends
over the next couple of days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the Great Lakes
by the end of the weekend into mid-next week as several mid-
level shortwaves track east along the upper-level ridge axis,
providing increased flow needed to support organized convection.

The first period of concern will be Sunday night into Monday
behind the warm front as guidance favors the development of a
complex of showers and storms generally moving southeast through
the Central and Eastern Great Lakes. This appears to be a
glancing blow at this time, mainly across far Northeast Ohio or
Northwest Pennsylvania. Precipitation chances have generally
trended lower for Tuesday with the ridge axis overhead with
chances increasing again by Tuesday night through Wednesday as a
strong upper-level trough swings east through the Upper Great
Lakes. In addition, anomalously-high PWATs in excess of 1.80
inches could lead to torrential rainfall and isolated flash
flooding where storms persist. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
with regards to shower and thunderstorm timing and coverage,
though given the favorable environmental shear in place, the
chance for strong to severe storms remains possible. Will
continue to monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR expected through the TAF period. There`s low confidence in
patchy fog across eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania
tonight that may drop visibility briefly but no impacts expected
at terminals. Scattered to broken high clouds are expected with
some diurnal scattered clouds around 5kft possible tomorrow
afternoon. Winds will be light around 5 knots out of the south
with a brief lake breeze possible at KCLE and KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday with showers
and thunderstorms and again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterly winds of 5-10 knots will decrease overnight and
veer to southerly. A stretch of good marine conditions is
expected through Monday with winds of generally 10 knots or
less. Southwesterly winds will increase into the 10-15 knot
range Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a low end threat of
thunderstorms beginning Sunday night and peaking on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms can result in erratic wind and wave conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...23
MARINE...10