337
FXUS61 KCLE 040457
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1157 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move to the north of the region and sweep a cold
front through early Thursday. High pressure will build in Thursday
into Friday with another cold front moving through on Sunday. High
pressure will build in late Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will move into the Hudson Bay region and
deepen into the Great Lakes late tonight. The trough will sweep
eastward tonight into Thursday as a surface low pressure system
moves to the north of the region and drags a cold front through
early Thursday morning. As the front moves through, a quick
burst of snow will be possible across much of the eastern
lakeshore from Cleveland up through Erie, Pennsylvania. The band
of snow will push in from the lakeshore and move south from
around midnight tonight through 8AM and could have rates as high
as an inch per hour. Winds will also gust up to 30 mph ahead of
the front which could lead to low visibilities with
characteristics of a snow squall band. This will primarily be in
Lake and Ashtabula Co in Ohio and up into Erie and Crawford Co,
Pennsylvania. These conditions will be fairly short lived as
the band will push through quickly, though this is where the
majority of the snow accumulation will occur and could impact
morning travel. Elsewhere across the region there could be light
accumulations of less than an inch creating slick conditions on
untreated surfaces.

Behind the front, high pressure will begin to build in from the west
as lake effect snow showers could continue across far northeastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as flow will be out of the west-
northwest. There will still be some moisture that will allow for
some accumulations, though it is expected to be minor, around an
inch or less. Much of the low level moisture will be moving to the
southeast with the front at this point so this will limit the
overall impacts. There will also be wind gusts of 20-30 mph across
the region during the day Thursday with the tighter pressure
gradient between the low to the north and the high building in from
the west.

Temperatures behind the front will be cold as arctic air rushes into
the region. 850 temperatures will range from -10C in the western
portion of the CWA to -17C out east. This will keep daytime highs
down for Thursday in the mid to upper 20s. With the drier air moving
in with high pressure, clouds will also start to clear out with
lighter winds will allow for more cooling overnight. Lows will be
down into the singe digits for much of the region and around 10
degrees near the lake shore Thursday night. Wind chills will be down
around zero with some locations, mainly around the I-75 corridor and
places higher in elevation, near below zero wind chills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build into the region on Friday and dry
weather is expected. There will be marginal low level moisture
across the region allowing for some sunshine for most of the day.
Temperatures will be quick to bounce back with highs in the upper
20s for Friday as the surface high moves off to the east and flow
shifts to be out of the south. On Saturday, a shortwave will move
across the region bringing another chance for some snow showers.
This feature isn`t all that impressive and won`t have a lot of
moisture within the profile for areas away from the lakeshore. So
the expectation is there will be some scattered lake effect showers
across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, but any
accumulation will be minimal. Temperatures Saturday will be ever so
slightly warmer than Friday, with highs in the low to mid 30s and
overnight lows down into the low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low-level ridging will build in on Sunday behind the shortwave and
flow will shift to be out of the north by late Sunday night.
Temperatures will continue to be below average across the region
through the long term. Monday looks to be dry as well due to the
ridging, but there is some models showing a system moving into the
region Tuesday into the mid-week. Though, confidence is low on the
track or strength of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Light snow has spread across all terminals ahead of an arctic
cold front. This has dropped cigs and vis to mainly MVFR. The
back edge of the snow is about through KTOL and KFDY, so expect
those sites to be completely dry within the next hour or two
other than some passing flurries. This will allow VFR to return
to KTOL before sunrise and to KFDY by mid morning. Farther east,
the snow will last a few hours longer this morning, and still
expect some bursts of moderate to briefly heavy snow with gusty
winds between now and about 11Z. Timing of this burst of snow,
or line of squalls, is still low confidence, but regional radar
loops show the band starting to organize over Lake Erie, so the
thinking is that the arctic front will catch this lake enhanced
band and push it southeastward over the next 4 to 6 hours,
leading to some brief IFR or lower at KERI, KCLE, KCAK, KYNG,
and KMFD. Drier air will rapidly work in behind the front this
morning, with all terminals expected to be VFR by mid afternoon,
although some scattered lake-effect snow showers will linger
around KERI until late afternoon.

SW winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times over the next few
hours, especially at KCLE and KERI. The winds will turn sharply
NW behind the arctic front by sunrise this morning, and NW winds
will decrease to 5-10 knots this afternoon, becoming light and
variable tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings Friday night through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will continue on Lake Erie into Thursday.
Southwest winds continue this evening ahead of a cold front,
flipping northwest late tonight into Thursday behind the front.
Winds are at peak this afternoon in the 20-27kt range, will subside
briefly to 15-20kt tonight, increase again to 20-25kt out of the
northwest right behind the front Thursday morning, and then subside
quickly from west to east Thursday afternoon and evening as high
pressure builds in. Water levels will remain near the critical mark
for safe navigation across the west end early this evening before
rising tonight as winds veer northwesterly. Small Craft Advisories
continue tonight into Thursday, then expire from west to east
Thursday afternoon and evening.

A cold front crosses the lake late Saturday into Saturday night,
leading to another period of elevated southwest winds that shift
northwest with the front. This will be the next opportunity for
Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for LEZ145>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Sullivan